This is the season...

[Villa in Denmark]

We're lucky we're only 5 points adrift at this stage. We haven't won since the opening day, realistically we should be well adrift by now.

I agree with this bit.  I know the stats about only 2 or 3 teams had stayed up with only 4 points after 11 games and no one has with our record after 13 games, but that's not saying anything about the gap to 4th and 5th from bottom. We've still got a shot at it.  We could just as easily be 8 or 9 points adrift and as good as gone. 5 is (very) difficult but not impossible.

All that said I think those of us who said we didn't want another season off sweating on our survival going into the last 2 or 3 weeks of the season might get our wish, just not for the reasons we'd hoped for.  Hopefully the next 3 or 4 weeks will give reason to rekindle some optimism.

[tomd2103]

We should all write to Scudamore suggesting the Premier League is expanded to 22 teams next season by having three up and just one down.
Just stop the League Cup to make room for the extra games and think of all the extra revenue created.
Just don't mention we are Villa fans or he may see through our desperate ruse.

I wouldn't bet on us staying up even if that was the case.

[QuintonVilla]

We're lucky we're only 5 points adrift at this stage. We haven't won since the opening day, realistically we should be well adrift by now.

I agree with this bit.  I know the stats about only 2 or 3 teams had stayed up with only 4 points after 11 games and no one has with our record after 13 games, but that's not saying anything about the gap to 4th and 5th from bottom. We've still got a shot at it.  We could just as easily be 8 or 9 points adrift and as good as gone. 5 is (very) difficult but not impossible.

All that said I think those of us who said we didn't want another season off sweating on our survival going into the last 2 or 3 weeks of the season might get our wish, just not for the reasons we'd hoped for.  Hopefully the next 3 or 4 weeks will give reason to rekindle some optimism.

I'd take a last day decider at Arsenal right now, or a winner takes all against Newcastle the week before. As it stands I think we'll be gone by then. No goals in the team and a shambolic defence and keeper is obviously a recipe for disaster.

[aj2k77]

We're a bag of shit, close the thread.

[KevinGage]

It looked like it was being addressed by Houllier.

I don't think that's quite right.

Some of the most feeble performances I have ever witnessed from a Villa side happened on his watch. They have become the norm now, sadly. But they started with him.

Our return to form at the end of the 2010/11 season also seemed to coincide with the senior pros he'd previously ostracised coming back and Gary Mac taking charge, rather than any Total Football philosophy on his part finally bedding down. 

Agree with the rest though.

[Villa in Denmark]

At the risk of mixing far too many metaphors, we're going to be spending the rest of the season drinking in the last chance saloon.  Come mid May we're going to have one hell of a hangover one way or the other.

[footyskillz]

Listens still points there also we have many big fixtures left and in villas hands. Look I see its between a bottom 5 so we still to play Newcastle twice, Bournemouth at home, Norwich twice, Watford twice.  Sunderland at home. Win those and there is hope.

 Plus the way fixtures pan out in December the Xmas matches on 26 and 28 west ham home Norwich away are winnable as are Newcastle away on 19th .
Also fixtures in January look promising on 2nd away to Sunderland and the following 2 home matches palace and Leicester.
So I think by February with reinforcements signed have enough to see us through.
Sherwood came in Feb and kept us up Garde has longer and decent fixtures .
Utv!
Can do this I know we can

[aj2k77]

I just think we are rubbish. I keep hearing we have a good group of players, where's the evidence for that? It's blind hope more than anything.

We've got a goalkeeper who is a walking clanger. 2 centre backs, one of whom is a complete pussy and gets knocked off the ball too easily and the other who lacks concentration. 2 full backs, 1 who should be retired off and the other, he's got a big heart but not too much talent. The midfield is a shambles. Westwood could be replaced by a cone, a complete wimp who offers nothing but easy 5 yard balls, Veretout has shown very very little for such money, Gueye started well but now has caught the Villa slump and hasn't looked like he has the heart for a fight. Up front we are even worse. Gabby, a figure of fun, he's fathered more kids in the last few years than he's scored goals. Sinclair had his best days as a winger and we've shoe horned him as a second forward, he's another light weight nothing kind of player. Ayew looks like he gives a shit but doesn't look any good as a lone striker. Gestede is as mobile as a bag of cement, he's just a lumbering giant head.

Gil and Grealish, lots of nice little touches but very little where it hurts other teams. With hindsight the summer transfer dealings look crap. We needed a big spine to the team.  A striker to build the side around, a midfielder who was a leader and a voice in the dressing room and a commanding centre back. Instead we got some more nice guys, young, light weight, nice guys. We look like a team of year 7's playing against bigger boys half the time.

[Ads]

I think we're very short on confidence. We have a decent squad, certainly no worse than any of the last four seasons, yet we failed to bring in a striker of quality who could at a pinch, grab a point or three from nowhere.

That's something that can only be remedied in the transfer market and my guess is that we will see summer 2016's money for that player spent in the January window.

It's also a situation created by the idiocy of the charlatan we had in charge of us. Palace, Sunderland, Leicester; 4 or 6 points thrown away needlessly. Games at home to West Brom, Swansea and Stoke where the opposition was as poor as us, where we came into a game without consistency in selection, without a clue as to what we were supposed to do and we lost all of them deservedly so.

Confidence is none existent as a result.

The past three fixtures, short of something very special happening or playing them in the last dead knockings of a season, were not games where we were likely to see an immediate turn around. Tottenham were excellent at Arsenal and they could have put another five or six past West Ham without hyperbole. Everton ripped us to shreds and looked a very good side indeed, while our best central midfield and a low shape grabbed us a point the other 9 sides in the bottom half probably wont get against Man City.

Garde tried the same against Everton, hoping to contain, but with Westwood in midfield [likely due to Snachez's air miles] that always looked remote and indeed it proved to be the case.

I think Garde made mistakes; we had no pace in the side and therefore no outlet ball, they were able to play further up the pitch and smother us. They targeted Richardson and there was nobody like Sinclair in front to at least stop the full back supporting their Barca bloke from getting past him.

They found the early long diagonal into him and it paid dividends. Westwood, surprise, surprise was out muscled and consistently lost his man. Gana was very poor and Veretout gave the ball away far too much in the first half.

But then they were winning the ball ten yards from our own box and with little options in front of them, with confidence draining, Veretout often had nobody to pass to and would recycle in cheaply.

Upfront, as said above, we're lacking. We have Ayew who I like, but bless him, even Tom Hanks at least had Wilson to keep him company, but that is reflected by the quality of the sides we faced. Maybe with Sinclair or Traore coming in to stretch sides and Gil on the other, he may find a friend or two. He's got quality, he's got the moodiness, but I think he's likely a second striker.

Agbonlahor is finished, from the reports of Kozak in training and the under 21s, he doesn't seem to be the same player before his horrible injury. Gestede is limited and with his mate out for the season, we're a player shy from putting the balls in that are his strength.

Its been said above and it bears repeating, but if I were a Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland or Bournemouth fan, and Gods below, thank goodness I'm not as there'd be even more miles on the clock, I could make similar arguments. Because you know what, they're rubbish as well. How can you have three positive results from a season dominated by a used car salesmen's mental profligacy and be only 5 points shy?

We're far from down and I think we will stay up, with a game or two to spare on a loft perch of 37 or 38 points. We have Norwich, Newcastle, Watford to play twice, Swansea, Sunderland, West Brom too. There are games and points to be won.

Watford is very important. The only way we can hope of getting something at Southampton is by picking up a result at home to Watford. To go back to the start of the ramble, it is so brittle, that even a whisper may see it cave in. That is the only history that matters. The immediate.

It doesn't really matter what happened in 1986 or what we may have or not have seen before, as it is irrelevant. None of us have seen this team, in this league, with the opposition around us before, with the players we have and they have. What matters most for the start of December is what happens on the 28th November. What happens against Arsenal is reliant on how well or badly the 28th and the 5th go. I appreciate that's a long paragraph to make a cliche.

Watford are a Championship side making a good fist of it so far. Their confidence isn't sky high, but equally, its not been knocked out of them. They will gift us opportunities and we need to take them. Given Newcastle are away, we could find our selves two points behind them. What a startling position.

There are six games between now and January when the window opens. 7 really with Sunderland on the New Years fixture; 21 points and sides like Watford, Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland to play leaving us at the half way point for games. Southampton, Arsenal and West Ham may or may not offer something and you'd hope that if we can beat Watford, and I think we will, then you'd like 2-3 points from those games, with 8-9 from the others, leaving us somewhere between 15-17 points at the half way stage, with 20 to find; 5 wins and 5 draws.

I have that horrible feeling in my stomach as if we're losing at home and its half time, which I think they should shorten to a minutes break when we're losing so we can get back on the pitch to rectify it.

Watford cannot come quick enough.

[Chico Hamilton III]

We have a decent squad, certainly no worse than any of the last four seasons, yet we failed to bring in a striker of quality who could at a pinch, grab a point or three from nowhere.

I think we have a very poor squad, although I agree that it's no worse than the last couple of seasons. I also think it's amazing that we've won only one game this season yet we are "only" 5 points adrift. We're actually quite lucky that, although we are awful, there's a couple of teams who are nearly as bad.

Anyway, Brentford's ground has a pub in every corner. And the Charlton Liberal Club is always very friendly... 

[levico]

Two contrasting posts above. One saying we just don't have the quality and one saying we are very low on confidence.

You know what? Both are spot on.

Now we can close the thread.

[Proposition Joe]

Has anyone looked ahead to the fixtures next year and calculated the likelihood of either Benteke or Delph scoring the goal(s) that send us down? Must admit, I'm not looking past the next fixture these days.

[Pat McMahon]

We have a decent squad, certainly no worse than any of the last four seasons, yet we failed to bring in a striker of quality who could at a pinch, grab a point or three from nowhere.

I think we have a very poor squad, although I agree that it's no worse than the last couple of seasons. I also think it's amazing that we've won only one game this season yet we are "only" 5 points adrift. We're actually quite lucky that, although we are awful, there's a couple of teams who are nearly as bad.

Anyway, Brentford's ground has a pub in every corner. And the Charlton Liberal Club is always very friendly... 

I still am not sure how good our signings are - I believe they probably have potential, but collectively they have done little to impress. Pre-season I was unnerved by how little I knew about our sigings, and the meh reaction from my French mates.

I was concerned we didn't have enough experience in the team and we lack leadership. The spine of the first team doesn't inspire confidence. Our squad is possibly stronger than in recent seasons but our first team isn't, in no small part due to the lack of a Benteke / Bent who can pull a goal out of the hat.

This really does feel like 1986-87 again - players on paper who are / were decent, but who just don't perform every week. The only consolation is that the gap to safety is not immeasurable. If memory serves me right, it was much later in 1986-87 when I felt this negative.

[kippaxvilla2]

We have a decent squad, certainly no worse than any of the last four seasons, yet we failed to bring in a striker of quality who could at a pinch, grab a point or three from nowhere.

I think we have a very poor squad, although I agree that it's no worse than the last couple of seasons. I also think it's amazing that we've won only one game this season yet we are "only" 5 points adrift. We're actually quite lucky that, although we are awful, there's a couple of teams who are nearly as bad.

Anyway, Brentford's ground has a pub in every corner. And the Charlton Liberal Club is always very friendly... 

The point about us only being 5 points adrift merely goes to emphasise once again just how average you have to be to survive in this league.  Which makes our position and points tally look even worse.  This is going to be a Derby season unless something changes drastically and quick.  On paper there are four winnable games between now and the new year and five if you then count Sunderland.  That's paper though.

[fbriai]

I think we're very short on confidence. We have a decent squad, certainly no worse than any of the last four seasons, yet we failed to bring in a striker of quality who could at a pinch, grab a point or three from nowhere...(abbreviated so as to not quote the entire page)

This is great. Thanks, Ads. A good summary of the game and something positive to hold on to. Cheers.