The Plot to Escape Relegation Thread 2015.

[myf]

When was last time we won 3 league games in a row?

[silhillvilla]

When was last time we won 3 league games in a row?

2011

[Ad@m]

Yes and they're looking good v Liverpool

We really need to be trying to win this one but it is likely to be tough

Hopefully they'll burn themselves out a bit tonight

And they haven't got Bony...

Their goal scoring record has been just 1 a game since Bony left. And they've not exactly been watertight at the back. Hopefully our new found attacking approach will get some joy against them.

[gnrpoison]

Might only have to be beat QPR and Burnley at home and then get 3 -4 draws as 37 - 39 pts might be enough. Would be surprised if Hull, Sunderland or Burnley and QPR were to achieve 35 or 36pts. What helps us is a few of those teams will play each other and others in the bottom half. A good run from us and we may climb even higher. I would be worried if we did not beat QPR or Burnley unless we were magically safe by then.

[Gerrin]

Might only have to be beat QPR and Burnley at home and then get 3 -4 draws as 37 - 39 pts might be enough. Would be surprised if Hull, Sunderland or Burnley and QPR were to achieve 35 or 36pts. What helps us is a few of those teams will play each other and others in the bottom half. A good run from us and we may climb even higher. I would be worried if we did not beat QPR or Burnley unless we were magically safe by then.

We need the win on Saturday, no home games in April and away to tough opposition. Then 4 winnable home games in May.

[Matt Collins]

Yes and they're looking good v Liverpool

We really need to be trying to win this one but it is likely to be tough

Hopefully they'll burn themselves out a bit tonight

And they haven't got Bony...

Liverpool shifted their tactics today in the second half to match up against their diamond

I'd definitely revert to that I think. Westwood for Sinclair

Their goal scoring record has been just 1 a game since Bony left. And they've not exactly been watertight at the back. Hopefully our new found attacking approach will get some joy against them.

[kippaxvilla2]

I can't help thinking this is going all the way to the wire.

[Villafirst]

Blitz Swansea from the off on Saturday - use maximum pace and power to overwhelm them! A "little" club.....

[Toronto Villa]

I imagine Sinclair is going to want to have a bit of fun vs his old club. Let him play is what I say.

[Godfrey Brian]

Still tight but we will pick up the odd unexpected point now. Still need to make it count at home. Swansea are beatable and points on Saturday will really pressure those around us.

[SoccerHQ]

Might only have to be beat QPR and Burnley at home and then get 3 -4 draws as 37 - 39 pts might be enough. Would be surprised if Hull, Sunderland or Burnley and QPR were to achieve 35 or 36pts. What helps us is a few of those teams will play each other and others in the bottom half. A good run from us and we may climb even higher. I would be worried if we did not beat QPR or Burnley unless we were magically safe by then.

Looking at the run ins I can't see Hull or Sunderland getting more than 33 points so 34 points could be enough.

[supertom]

Might only have to be beat QPR and Burnley at home and then get 3 -4 draws as 37 - 39 pts might be enough. Would be surprised if Hull, Sunderland or Burnley and QPR were to achieve 35 or 36pts. What helps us is a few of those teams will play each other and others in the bottom half. A good run from us and we may climb even higher. I would be worried if we did not beat QPR or Burnley unless we were magically safe by then.

Looking at the run ins I can't see Hull or Sunderland getting more than 33 points so 34 points could be enough.

Me neither. Burnley got a good result but they will struggle to average a point a game for the remainder. QPR probably won't either.

If we win saturday we'll be in great shape. It then means an unexpected result during the tough April run could get us safe before May comes around. It'd be nice to be safe sooner rather than later.

[Damo70]

Might only have to be beat QPR and Burnley at home and then get 3 -4 draws as 37 - 39 pts might be enough. Would be surprised if Hull, Sunderland or Burnley and QPR were to achieve 35 or 36pts. What helps us is a few of those teams will play each other and others in the bottom half. A good run from us and we may climb even higher. I would be worried if we did not beat QPR or Burnley unless we were magically safe by then.

Looking at the run ins I can't see Hull or Sunderland getting more than 33 points so 34 points could be enough.

What is the lowest number of points someone has stayed up with? Was it Albion on something like 34 or 35 in their 'great escape' season? When I did the predictor a few weeks back I'm sure I had teams staying up on closer to 30 points than forty. Nothing seems to have changed to alter that possibility. I reckon 36-38 points will be enough this year.

[CJ]

Sunderland have given themselves a better chance by sacking Poyet and appointing Advocaat. Think it's going to be really tight

[paul_e]

Might only have to be beat QPR and Burnley at home and then get 3 -4 draws as 37 - 39 pts might be enough. Would be surprised if Hull, Sunderland or Burnley and QPR were to achieve 35 or 36pts. What helps us is a few of those teams will play each other and others in the bottom half. A good run from us and we may climb even higher. I would be worried if we did not beat QPR or Burnley unless we were magically safe by then.

Looking at the run ins I can't see Hull or Sunderland getting more than 33 points so 34 points could be enough.

What is the lowest number of points someone has stayed up with? Was it Albion on something like 34 or 35 in their 'great escape' season? When I did the predictor a few weeks back I'm sure I had teams staying up on closer to 30 points than forty. Nothing seems to have changed to alter that possibility. I reckon 36-38 points will be enough this year.

It's simpler to track the number of points the team in 18th had, anything more than that is clearly safe.

2014 - norwich 33
2013 - wigan 36
2012 - bolton 36
2011 - blues 39
2010 - burnley 30
2009 - newcastle 34
2008 - reading 36
2007 - sheffield u 38
2006 - blues 34
2005 - palace 33
2004 - leicester 33
2003 - west ham 42
2002 - ipswich 36
2001 - man city 34
2000 - wimbledon 33

from that, as I've said before, 36 is the normal safe point, and looking at the points for teams down there and the fixtures it will be again.  If you take a 29 game snapshot of any of those seasons where it's 33-36 the table looks rather similar to now as well.

The other important bit is that the seasons where more points are needed you still see teams running away at the top but the gaps lower down are much smaller, the points difference between 8th and 17th is pretty telling.

If you take 2003 and 2010 (the highest and lowest respectively):

2003 8th 52 - 17th 44 - 8 point difference.
2010 8th 61 - 17th 35 - 26 point difference.

I can't be bothered to do more seasons but trust me the 'rule' stands.  Right now 8th have 42 and 17th have 26 so it's a 16 point gap, which puts us right in the middle which, again, suggests 36 points will be about the mark.