Ball possession

[paul_e]

There's a lot of odd opinions in this thread.

% of possession doesn't dictate the result, it has very little bearing on it in general, I'm pretty sure the analysis about that very subject has been linked to on this thread already.

The key metric is conversion rates which are almost impossible to find on the internet because they require some real analysis, how many times does having the ball in the final 3rd lead to a shot, how many times does passing the ball around in defence lead to a hoof forward, how many crosses do you put in that aren't blocked in front or cut out by the keeper?

These are the real statistics that make a difference, look at those 3 in the context of the liverpool game and you get (for Liverpool): not many, most and very few.  Now if you let a side like Man City gets shots off around the box they will get 1 or 2 right over 90minutes, so what let us down on Saturday was that we allowed too many shots when they were in our 3rd (15 of them (we blocked 12 which is pretty impressive).

On the flip side we lacked accuracy on the break (in general) which is absolutely essential when you're playing a fast counter style, too many times we broke but then misplaced a pass or tried to do too much (nzog in particular) or didn't work the keeper with the odd shot we got.

Against Liverpool we were very accurate in the first half hour, we looked incredibly dangerous whenever we attacked, ditto Stoke and Hull.  So the key thing for us is carrying that genuine threat on the break, Against Arsenal we did for half an hour but didn't take the chances and then we got caught at our own game with a couple of quick accurate breaks, after which they just kept the ball in their defence and we held back to avoid a battering.  Chelsea and Man City genuinely just outclassed us, but being half billion £ squads makes that pretty easy to do.

[Risso]

We played very well against Liverpool first half, and deservedly went ahead.

[PaulWinch again]

The point is it's not good enough to only carry a threat on the break, because you're going to come up against sides who are happy enough not to be too attacking. That's why we often have poor results against poor sides at home, we need more strings to our bow than just counter attacking. There is of course a place for counter attacking and it can be great, but you need to be more adaptable when the opposition don't come to attack.

[saunders_heroes]

We played very well against Liverpool first half, and deservedly went ahead.

We did, and we deserved the win. Second half we sat back and defended for practical the whole half. I haven't got a problem with that away from home. Trouble is though we play like that at home as well. That's not acceptable and it's absolutely horrible to watch.

[Jimbo]

On the rare occasions we go ahead in a game, we almost always sit back and try to defend our lead, no matter who we're playing. We often come unstuck as a result. 

[paul_e]

On the rare occasions we go ahead in a game, we almost always sit back and try to defend our lead, no matter who we're playing. We often come unstuck as a result. 

We've won every game we've taken the lead in this season.

[Jimbo]

On the rare occasions we go ahead in a game, we almost always sit back and try to defend our lead, no matter who we're playing. We often come unstuck as a result. 

We've won every game we've taken the lead in this season.

Three games, and this season alone doesn't tell the whole story. The defence is better, but have the tactics changed?

[supertom]

On the rare occasions we go ahead in a game, we almost always sit back and try to defend our lead, no matter who we're playing. We often come unstuck as a result. 

We've won every game we've taken the lead in this season.

Last season we came unstuck though and it could easily happen this, unless we find a plan B.

[paul_e]

On the rare occasions we go ahead in a game, we almost always sit back and try to defend our lead, no matter who we're playing. We often come unstuck as a result. 

We've won every game we've taken the lead in this season.

Three games, and this season alone doesn't tell the whole story. The defence is better, but have the tactics changed?

But we can only judge this season on the games we've played in it, given the number of changes to the squad it's just not fair to judge them against last season.

7 games in having played all of last seasons top 4 just isn't the right time to be complaining, particularly when we've managed to get 10 points from those games.

if the next 7 games yeild similar 30-40% possession stats then a pattern emerges but the reality is we were effective in the first 4 games and haven't had our confidence completely destroyed in the next 3, which is about as much as you'd have asked from those games.

[SoccerHQ]

We played very well against Liverpool first half, and deservedly went ahead.

We did, and we deserved the win. Second half we sat back and defended for practical the whole half. I haven't got a problem with that away from home. Trouble is though we play like that at home as well. That's not acceptable and it's absolutely horrible to watch.

Away from home I don't see the issue, how many teams would continue attacking Liverpool at Anfield one up. The only other team to win there in living memory were Chelsea at the end of last season.

Went 1 up right on half time through the hilarious Gerrard slip and then spent the second half camped on the 18 yard box before breaking clear in injury time when Liverpool had 10 in their box to score a second.

I'm fine how we play away from home because for a bottom half team we frequently win more away games than many teams around us. The likes of Stoke, West Ham, Hull etc. this lot only tend to win 2-3 away games a year.

Home, different story. I just wish Lambert would attempt to develop some sort of plan, either a different formation or mixing up the team, even narrowing the pitch if our size is over prem regulations. The criticism is justified on the most part but the Hull game was the best we've played at VP in a long time, well from games I've attended so that's why I'm surprised that game is being used as an example.

Go back to the Norwich post match thread from last season and I'm pretty sure the likes of Paulie were commending us on the professionalism of not wasting energy in the second half when we just gave Norwich the ball for the whole of the second half and didn't waste energy trying to score a fifth so not sure why there's a sudden change of opinion.

[Monty]

For clarification, are we calling our wins against Stoke, Hull and Liverpool smash and grab? As I would say that is a pretty inaccurate description of all three games.

I agree. A good defensive display is not luck.

I agree, no luck there, the defensive displays were very good.

However, that doesn't change the point across a wider period of time, that we fail to pass the ball with any real conviction, and invariably find ourselves having less of it than the opposition - an approach which isn't going to get us very far (like it didn't last year, or the year before that, when we also went to Anfield and won).

We finished last year with only one side having less possession than we did - Crystal Palace.

I don't think it is nay-saying or doom mongering to suggest that we might want to improve that sort of statistic (which in turn, might help us get more people to attend our matches).

The fact that we lost that Palace game shows the problem even more starkly - when the opposition sit behind the ball, we have absolutely no idea what to do.

The source of this is obvious - we don't really train for this. Our attacks are meant to be fast, instinctive, direct (though not necessarily hoofy). Breaking defences down requires a slow game, and we're just not built for this. You can see the players whenever they get time panic - they're completely improvising, with no practiced way of moving off the ball or anything. This is obviously the way to play on the break, when you have to use the space and time quickly and suddenly, but when you're trying to break a team down you just look like someone charging headfirst into a door.

[Boz]

A few more shots on target might help. We must have the worst record in the Premiership.

[fredm]

Am I correct in thinking I have read somewhere that after 7 games last season, which included Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and L'pool, we had the same number of points as this year but had scored more goals and conceded less, thus having a better goal difference than this season?

[paul_e]

We're comfortably bottom of both shots per game and shots on target per game, 10 shots on target all season (which means 40% of our shots on target have been scored, which is ridiculously high).

You can find a whole load of stats like this here - most o that make pretty poor reading though, however my opinion was always that with Benteke and Kozak missing at the start and then a really shit run of playing last years top 5 if we could scrap a few points together and have 4-5 goals on the board by this point we'd have rode out the storm pretty safely, which is the case.  What we really need now is 10-12 points from the next 6-7 games and a few more goals and then we can start to see what kind of team we really are, the stats so far are fine in the context of who we've played but they need to improve from now.

[paul_e]

Am I correct in thinking I have read somewhere that after 7 games last season, which included Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and L'pool, we had the same number of points as this year but had scored more goals and conceded less, thus having a better goal difference than this season?

Yes, that is true, but this time last year we'd just lost our main striker to injury and even though he came back pretty quickly he didn't really do anything of note until the new year.

What screwed us last year was 10 points from 12 games from mid october until the End of the year and and 11 points from 15 from the start of feb to the end of the season, 10 in 7 at the start and 7 in 5 in January (coincidentally the 2 periods where Benteke was at his best, 4 in 5 at the start and 3 in 5 in jan) are the points that saved us last year.