Ball possession

[onje_villa]

Maybe they get hung up on the possession stat because it more often than not impacts on small things like chances created, goals scored points accumulated and final league placings.

If Lambert had reinvented the wheel and was some sort of maverick who was consistently delivering top 6/8 league placings with minimal possession, there would be a strong argument to continue on that path.

As it is, it doesn't deliver results (on a consistent basis) and it's dismal to watch.

I have no doubt for clubs like Leicester, Palarse and co staying up is the priority, so scratching a win here and their against the run of play and grinding out the odd home win in a relegation 6 pointer is enough for them, regardless of how they do it.

Despite our regression these past few years, we should be beyond that type of joyless approach to football.

Excellent post.

[Dave]

I doubt it's too far off, I imagine Man Citeh's possession stats were some of the highest in the league last year and Liverpool's almost certainly were. I agree it's not absolutely certain and some teams buck the trend, but I'd if you looked at the league there would be a trend of the teams with more possession being up the top end and the teams with very little possession being down the bottom end.

Interesting from the guy who wrote that really good Robbie Savage piece in the Telegraph. There's quite a lot more, but this is the relevant bit:

The question is whether possession is actually any use at telling us who’s going to win a football game. And the answer is: it really depends where you look.
 
In this season’s Premier League, the team with more possession has won 55.3 per cent of games. In the Champions League, the figure is 66.7 per cent. That would seem to indicate a strong correlation between keeping the ball and winning the game.

But as a means for predicting the winner of a football game, possession is deeply unreliable. A far better metric in this regard is shots on goal, or “shot supremacy”: the ratio of shots on goal to shots conceded, which has been proven to have a strong correlation with points.
 
More often, possession is the by-product of a good team, rather than the other way round. The higher the standard of the competition, the more likely you are to find players with the skill levels required to play successful possession football.
 
So what happens when the standard is lower? To study this, we looked at a competition some distance removed from the dizzy heights and fancy pirouettes of the Champions League.
 
Completely at random, and with apologies, we picked the Australian A-League. The standard may be improving, but only a complete dingo dog would claim it was a serious rival to the big European leagues. So, with help from the excellent FourFourTwo Stats Zone app, we looked at all 105 matches played so far this season. And the results were mildly startling.
 
In the Champions League, remember, the team with more possession wins 67 per cent of the time, if you exclude draws. In the A-League, the team with more possession loses 57 per cent of the time. More remarkably still, the team that completes more passes in the opposition’s final third – proper passing, not just knocking it around the defence – loses 59 per cent of the time.
 
If you are setting up a team to play in the Australian A-League, it seems that the best thing to do is to kick the ball away as fast as you can.

Why should this be? Perhaps it’s because players of a lower standard are more likely to make mistakes on the ball, more likely to send passes astray, more likely to make a fatal error in a dangerous position. Possession football requires a certain skill level to carry off well, and yet even then it is not foolproof, as Barcelona’s occasional slip-ups have proved. When inferior players try to play keep-ball, it often proves counterproductive.
 
According to the Spanish journalist Diego Torres in a recent book, Jose Mourinho’s attitude to possession at Real Madrid was summed up thus.
 
1. The game is won by the team who commits fewer errors.

2. Football favours whoever provokes more errors in the opposition.

3. Away from home, instead of trying to be superior to the opposition, it's better to encourage their mistakes.
 
4. Whoever has the ball is more likely to make a mistake.

5. Whoever renounces possession reduces the possibility of making a mistake.

6. Whoever has the ball has fear.

7. Whoever does not have it is therefore stronger.

This is tiki-taka’s direct nemesis: not necessarily anti-football, but definitely anti-something. The data from Australia proves that below a certain skill threshold, football is primarily a game of mistakes.

Link

[paul_e]

The premier league is built around counter-attacking football, for all the possession sides have the majority of important goals come from counter-attacks because of the pace the game is played here.  Arsenal's first was a counter-attack, Leicester beat Manu by press and counter, man city got a point with a counter-attack, I could go on.

Possession helps but good possession stats where you keep the ball in the right areas is all about confidence, both in your ability to keep possession and in your trust of other players to be able to do the same.  That confidence comes from 2 sources, the first, as is the case with the likes of Swansea, is from lots of practice, the 2nd is more general confidence in your ability, which comes from winning games and being part of something.

A final point, which I've made before, I've never been to a villa game where a spell of passing without making things happen hasn't been accompanied by a shout of 'do something with it' or 'get it forward'. Clubs like Swansea don't have that and this is one of those situations where I think us being a big club without a big club squad makes things worse.

[LeeB]

I doubt it's too far off, I imagine Man Citeh's possession stats were some of the highest in the league last year and Liverpool's almost certainly were. I agree it's not absolutely certain and some teams buck the trend, but I'd if you looked at the league there would be a trend of the teams with more possession being up the top end and the teams with very little possession being down the bottom end.

Interesting from the guy who wrote that really good Robbie Savage piece in the Telegraph. There's quite a lot more, but this is the relevant bit:

The question is whether possession is actually any use at telling us who’s going to win a football game. And the answer is: it really depends where you look.
 
In this season’s Premier League, the team with more possession has won 55.3 per cent of games. In the Champions League, the figure is 66.7 per cent. That would seem to indicate a strong correlation between keeping the ball and winning the game.

But as a means for predicting the winner of a football game, possession is deeply unreliable. A far better metric in this regard is shots on goal, or “shot supremacy”: the ratio of shots on goal to shots conceded, which has been proven to have a strong correlation with points.
 
More often, possession is the by-product of a good team, rather than the other way round. The higher the standard of the competition, the more likely you are to find players with the skill levels required to play successful possession football.
 
So what happens when the standard is lower? To study this, we looked at a competition some distance removed from the dizzy heights and fancy pirouettes of the Champions League.
 
Completely at random, and with apologies, we picked the Australian A-League. The standard may be improving, but only a complete dingo dog would claim it was a serious rival to the big European leagues. So, with help from the excellent FourFourTwo Stats Zone app, we looked at all 105 matches played so far this season. And the results were mildly startling.
 
In the Champions League, remember, the team with more possession wins 67 per cent of the time, if you exclude draws. In the A-League, the team with more possession loses 57 per cent of the time. More remarkably still, the team that completes more passes in the opposition’s final third – proper passing, not just knocking it around the defence – loses 59 per cent of the time.
 
If you are setting up a team to play in the Australian A-League, it seems that the best thing to do is to kick the ball away as fast as you can.

Why should this be? Perhaps it’s because players of a lower standard are more likely to make mistakes on the ball, more likely to send passes astray, more likely to make a fatal error in a dangerous position. Possession football requires a certain skill level to carry off well, and yet even then it is not foolproof, as Barcelona’s occasional slip-ups have proved. When inferior players try to play keep-ball, it often proves counterproductive.
 
According to the Spanish journalist Diego Torres in a recent book, Jose Mourinho’s attitude to possession at Real Madrid was summed up thus.
 
1. The game is won by the team who commits fewer errors.

2. Football favours whoever provokes more errors in the opposition.

3. Away from home, instead of trying to be superior to the opposition, it's better to encourage their mistakes.
 
4. Whoever has the ball is more likely to make a mistake.

5. Whoever renounces possession reduces the possibility of making a mistake.

6. Whoever has the ball has fear.

7. Whoever does not have it is therefore stronger.

This is tiki-taka’s direct nemesis: not necessarily anti-football, but definitely anti-something. The data from Australia proves that below a certain skill threshold, football is primarily a game of mistakes.

Link

That's a really interesting piece, thanks Dave.

[PaulWinch again]

That is an interesting article Dave. Although I'd be curious what the balance of 'more' possession is, I just think that once you start having possession stat of 35% and less on a regular basis you're probably going to struggle over the course of a season.

[paul_e]

That is an interesting article Dave. Although I'd be curious what the balance of 'more' possession is, I just think that once you start having possession stat of 35% and less on a regular basis you're probably going to struggle over the course of a season.

As the article says, shots on goal is a better measure, that's actually the stat that upsets me the most about us, we have too many players who just don't get shots away.

Now that's not to say that more possession doesn't lead to more shots, it often does, but the key is, if you're going to play deep and let teams come on to you you need to stop them from shooting (we'd been doing this well so far this season before Saturday) and when you break you need to end up with a shot, which we've struggled with because we're breaking out wide (in objection to a comment about us being narrow earlier we actually attack on the wings more than pretty much any other team in the league so far this season) and we're just not getting people in good positions in the centre to make the most of it, this is where Benteke will help.

As I said, and the article agrees to an extent, possession is often a by-product of teams being scared of your quality because they hold their shape and let you have the ball, as we saw under MON.  Right now I'm happy to play as well are and then work out how to beat those teams when they start gifting us possession and inviting us to break them down.

[KevinGage]

I doubt it's too far off, I imagine Man Citeh's possession stats were some of the highest in the league last year and Liverpool's almost certainly were. I agree it's not absolutely certain and some teams buck the trend, but I'd if you looked at the league there would be a trend of the teams with more possession being up the top end and the teams with very little possession being down the bottom end.

Interesting from the guy who wrote that really good Robbie Savage piece in the Telegraph. There's quite a lot more, but this is the relevant bit:

The question is whether possession is actually any use at telling us who’s going to win a football game. And the answer is: it really depends where you look.
 
In this season’s Premier League, the team with more possession has won 55.3 per cent of games. In the Champions League, the figure is 66.7 per cent. That would seem to indicate a strong correlation between keeping the ball and winning the game.

But as a means for predicting the winner of a football game, possession is deeply unreliable. A far better metric in this regard is shots on goal, or “shot supremacy”: the ratio of shots on goal to shots conceded, which has been proven to have a strong correlation with points.
 
More often, possession is the by-product of a good team, rather than the other way round. The higher the standard of the competition, the more likely you are to find players with the skill levels required to play successful possession football.
 
So what happens when the standard is lower? To study this, we looked at a competition some distance removed from the dizzy heights and fancy pirouettes of the Champions League.
 
Completely at random, and with apologies, we picked the Australian A-League. The standard may be improving, but only a complete dingo dog would claim it was a serious rival to the big European leagues. So, with help from the excellent FourFourTwo Stats Zone app, we looked at all 105 matches played so far this season. And the results were mildly startling.
 
In the Champions League, remember, the team with more possession wins 67 per cent of the time, if you exclude draws. In the A-League, the team with more possession loses 57 per cent of the time. More remarkably still, the team that completes more passes in the opposition’s final third – proper passing, not just knocking it around the defence – loses 59 per cent of the time.
 
If you are setting up a team to play in the Australian A-League, it seems that the best thing to do is to kick the ball away as fast as you can.

Why should this be? Perhaps it’s because players of a lower standard are more likely to make mistakes on the ball, more likely to send passes astray, more likely to make a fatal error in a dangerous position. Possession football requires a certain skill level to carry off well, and yet even then it is not foolproof, as Barcelona’s occasional slip-ups have proved. When inferior players try to play keep-ball, it often proves counterproductive.
 
According to the Spanish journalist Diego Torres in a recent book, Jose Mourinho’s attitude to possession at Real Madrid was summed up thus.
 
1. The game is won by the team who commits fewer errors.

2. Football favours whoever provokes more errors in the opposition.

3. Away from home, instead of trying to be superior to the opposition, it's better to encourage their mistakes.
 
4. Whoever has the ball is more likely to make a mistake.

5. Whoever renounces possession reduces the possibility of making a mistake.

6. Whoever has the ball has fear.

7. Whoever does not have it is therefore stronger.

This is tiki-taka’s direct nemesis: not necessarily anti-football, but definitely anti-something. The data from Australia proves that below a certain skill threshold, football is primarily a game of mistakes.

Link

Although it's speculation, that bit about Mourinho rings true.

His sides have always been about ruthless efficiency, and I bet part of him loves it when he plays a Swansea, Southampton or Liverpool and turns them over with less possession of the ball. His teams won't often come off the pitch with less than 30% possession though.

I'm sure Swansea fans got exasperated at times too last season, with so much possession in games and little end  product, if Bony or Michu were out. Or defensive frailties often nullifying what attacking threat they did offer.

But when you have good habits and are comfortable in possession, those other deficiencies can be overcome, sometimes with just the introduction of a new player or two.   When you struggle with the basics, a new player here and there isn't going to make a whole pile of difference.

[LeeB]

I doubt it's too far off, I imagine Man Citeh's possession stats were some of the highest in the league last year and Liverpool's almost certainly were. I agree it's not absolutely certain and some teams buck the trend, but I'd if you looked at the league there would be a trend of the teams with more possession being up the top end and the teams with very little possession being down the bottom end.

Interesting from the guy who wrote that really good Robbie Savage piece in the Telegraph. There's quite a lot more, but this is the relevant bit:

The question is whether possession is actually any use at telling us who’s going to win a football game. And the answer is: it really depends where you look.
 
In this season’s Premier League, the team with more possession has won 55.3 per cent of games. In the Champions League, the figure is 66.7 per cent. That would seem to indicate a strong correlation between keeping the ball and winning the game.

But as a means for predicting the winner of a football game, possession is deeply unreliable. A far better metric in this regard is shots on goal, or “shot supremacy”: the ratio of shots on goal to shots conceded, which has been proven to have a strong correlation with points.
 
More often, possession is the by-product of a good team, rather than the other way round. The higher the standard of the competition, the more likely you are to find players with the skill levels required to play successful possession football.
 
So what happens when the standard is lower? To study this, we looked at a competition some distance removed from the dizzy heights and fancy pirouettes of the Champions League.
 
Completely at random, and with apologies, we picked the Australian A-League. The standard may be improving, but only a complete dingo dog would claim it was a serious rival to the big European leagues. So, with help from the excellent FourFourTwo Stats Zone app, we looked at all 105 matches played so far this season. And the results were mildly startling.
 
In the Champions League, remember, the team with more possession wins 67 per cent of the time, if you exclude draws. In the A-League, the team with more possession loses 57 per cent of the time. More remarkably still, the team that completes more passes in the opposition’s final third – proper passing, not just knocking it around the defence – loses 59 per cent of the time.
 
If you are setting up a team to play in the Australian A-League, it seems that the best thing to do is to kick the ball away as fast as you can.

Why should this be? Perhaps it’s because players of a lower standard are more likely to make mistakes on the ball, more likely to send passes astray, more likely to make a fatal error in a dangerous position. Possession football requires a certain skill level to carry off well, and yet even then it is not foolproof, as Barcelona’s occasional slip-ups have proved. When inferior players try to play keep-ball, it often proves counterproductive.
 
According to the Spanish journalist Diego Torres in a recent book, Jose Mourinho’s attitude to possession at Real Madrid was summed up thus.
 
1. The game is won by the team who commits fewer errors.

2. Football favours whoever provokes more errors in the opposition.

3. Away from home, instead of trying to be superior to the opposition, it's better to encourage their mistakes.
 
4. Whoever has the ball is more likely to make a mistake.

5. Whoever renounces possession reduces the possibility of making a mistake.

6. Whoever has the ball has fear.

7. Whoever does not have it is therefore stronger.

This is tiki-taka’s direct nemesis: not necessarily anti-football, but definitely anti-something. The data from Australia proves that below a certain skill threshold, football is primarily a game of mistakes.

Link

Although it's speculation, that bit about Mourinho rings true.

His sides have always been about ruthless efficiency, and I bet part of him loves it when he plays a Swansea, Southampton or Liverpool and turns them over with less possession of the ball. His teams won't often come off the pitch with less than 30% possession though.

I'm sure Swansea fans got exasperated at times too last season, with so much possession in games and little end  product, if Bony or Michu were out. Or defensive frailties often nullifying what attacking threat they did offer.

But when you have good habits and are comfortable in possession, those other deficiencies can be overcome, sometimes with just the introduction of a new player or two.   When you struggle with the basics, a new player here and there isn't going to make a whole pile of difference.

They had 38% possession when they beat Everton 6-3.

[KevinGage]

And there is room for that, the classic away performance. 

But how often would they have just 40% possession at home to Newcastle, have less than Hull and so on.

That would be the issue for me.  I wouldn't necessarily have expected us to have more of the ball than Arsenal, even in a good performance.  Although they can be suspect away from home, Arsenal have the ability to do what they did on Saturday to most teams. 

Where the issue comes is when we consistently have less of the ball against even modest sides at home, not just slightly less but quite often substantially less.

[LeeB]

No, I agree pal, just backing up your comments about Mourinho.

I was reading the article with Lambert in the Torygraph late on Friday night, a bit bleary, and he said "I don't like it when it goes over the top"

For a split second my heart jumped, and I thought he was referring to last seasons football, then I re-read it and he was talking about supporters giving the players stick, which left me a bit downhearted.

[paul_e]

Hull is irrelevant, We had dominated that game and had about 55% possession when the game was in question, 2nd half we just took it easy and let them play in front of us.

As I said though, performing well and winning games will naturally see our possession increase, so I'm not overly worried because this season, unlike the last 3-4 we actually look like we know how to play this way and I'm fairly confident that we'll be a lot less worried late in the season than we've become used to.

[PaulWinch again]

And there is room for that, the classic away performance. 

But how often would they have just 40% possession at home to Newcastle, have less than Hull and so on.

That would be the issue for me.  I wouldn't necessarily have expected us to have more of the ball than Arsenal, even in a good performance.  Although they can be suspect away from home, Arsenal have the ability to do what they did on Saturday to most teams. 

Where the issue comes is when we consistently have less of the ball against even modest sides at home, not just slightly less but quite often substantially less.

Yep completely agree, and it's no coincidence that our home form is so poor as a result.

[ChicagoLion]

You need to have possession in the final 3rd to have attempts at goal. How many times over the Lambert years we have seen very low possession with few and even no shots on target.

I think the original point remains. You will not get far playing our brand of possession less non offensive football.

[SoccerHQ]

I was thinking today, one big problem of keeping possesion in the final third is we don't really have a forward who can drop deep into midfield and link up with them and get some moves going.

Benteke has the quality to do this but obviously you want him on the shoulders of defenders and in fairness Weimann was doing it first half v Hull quite well which was our most convincing game this season at passing and creating.

But nothing to the standard of what Robbie Keane was producing in his short loan spell here.

I wish we could sign that type of forward once in a while instead of more speed merchants for us to kick long and them to chase it. That's why I was disappointed Helenius never worked out as in his brief cameos he at least looked like a forward with different skills compared to the rest of our strikers.

[Boz]

You need to have possession in the final 3rd to have attempts at goal. How many times over the Lambert years we have seen very low possession with few and even no shots on target.

I think the original point remains. You will not get far playing our brand of possession less non offensive football.

Totally agree, Villa's final third possession is very poor most of the time.

Possession statistics would be more meaningful if they were divided into the possession in the defensive and offensive halves.

Lots of possession in your own half knocking the ball to and fro across the pitch and not threatening your opponents doesn't win matches unless you already have the lead ala the Gooners on Saturday.