The Takeover Thread - Recon Group - NOW WITH NEW POLL

[brian green]

As Paulie says it may well boil down to his judgement. I have no doubt whatsoever about his sincerity my doubts are about his savvy. I never ever thought I would live to see a Villa owner appoint a multiple failed Small Heath manager but I did.

[paul_e]

I expect something will have happened by the end of September, either a takeover or some info from Lerner, I can't imagine it being left unremarked any longer than that. It may of course be an announcement of a new CEO to oversee things until the takeover goes ahead, which I'd still count as an update on the process.

If I was buying the club then I would not be doing anything in September i.e. when the window is closed.  We could be certs for relegation by the end of December (theoretically) which would result in a drop in the value of the club.  If a deal is close, I'd guess that it will be struck either very soon or not until Nov/Dec.

the alternative viewpoint being that arriving in September when you can't spend big money immediately means there isn't the same pressure and you have the time to bring in a manager and let them evaluate the squad first.  I don't think there's any perfect time to take a club over except possibly in the last month or so of the season when they're already safe but not in the running for Europe, which is a pretty niche market.

[brian green]

I can't speak for anybody else and would not presume to do so but I would have been much happier if the whole transfer of ownership had been done privately. The formal putting of the club on the market without, what is seemingly more and more likely, a buyer in mind, strikes me as poor business and cack handed. Perhaps there is an imminent buyer. Nobody would be happier than I if that is the case.

[john e]

I can't speak for anybody else and would not presume to do so but I would have been much happier if the whole transfer of ownership had been done privately. The formal putting of the club on the market without, what is seemingly more and more likely, a buyer in mind, strikes me as poor business and cack handed. Perhaps there is an imminent buyer. Nobody would be happier than I if that is the case.

can you imagine what it would be like though if he hadn't said anything Brian
after 3 free transfers, it would be a hundred times worse than it is now with all the speculation,
 at least now we know he isn't interested so we are not expecting much

[pauliewalnuts]

I can't speak for anybody else and would not presume to do so but I would have been much happier if the whole transfer of ownership had been done privately. The formal putting of the club on the market without, what is seemingly more and more likely, a buyer in mind, strikes me as poor business and cack handed. Perhaps there is an imminent buyer. Nobody would be happier than I if that is the case.

I don't think it makes much difference. He appointed BoA to find a buyer and that Keith Harris is on the case, it would have been common knowledge anyway.

I don't think there was much wrong with the intent of that statement. All that stuff about the Shummanite, though, jesus. Odd.

[manic-road]

I can't speak for anybody else and would not presume to do so but I would have been much happier if the whole transfer of ownership had been done privately. The formal putting of the club on the market without, what is seemingly more and more likely, a buyer in mind, strikes me as poor business and cack handed. Perhaps there is an imminent buyer. Nobody would be happier than I if that is the case.

I don't think it makes much difference. He appointed BoA to find a buyer and that Keith Harris is on the case, it would have been common knowledge anyway.

I don't think there was much wrong with the intent of that statement. All that stuff about the Shummanite, though, jesus. Odd.

I can't see Keith Harris having much time on his hands to find a buyer when he has his arm stuffed up the backside of a green bird called Orville.

[garyshawsknee]

I can't speak for anybody else and would not presume to do so but I would have been much happier if the whole transfer of ownership had been done privately. The formal putting of the club on the market without, what is seemingly more and more likely, a buyer in mind, strikes me as poor business and cack handed. Perhaps there is an imminent buyer. Nobody would be happier than I if that is the case.

I don't think it makes much difference. He appointed BoA to find a buyer and that Keith Harris is on the case, it would have been common knowledge anyway.

I don't think there was much wrong with the intent of that statement. All that stuff about the Shummanite, though, jesus. Odd.

I can't see Keith Harris having much time on his hands to find a buyer when he has his arm stuffed up the backside of a green bird called Orville.

Cuddles works with him part time.

[brian green]

I accept all those comments and cannot disagree with the actual nuts and bolts of the way our predicament unfolded.  I simply feel that the club has been exposed to circumstances which damage its standing and make it harder to manage, to attract suitable quality players and to sell season tickets.
At the end of last season Randy Lerner either had a buyer in mind or he did not. It had to be one or the other. If there was a preferred buyer the negotiations should, in my opinion, have been pursued discreetly and privately. If there was no buyer-in-waiting discretion should still have been the watchword and at all costs the impression of "when there is something to tell you we will tell you" should not have been allowed to be the club's stance. What I am saying is that it should be tell us nothing or tell us everything, not leave the whole future of the club hanging in the air. The fan base is one of the few selling strengths of the club. That fan base should be shown mature and genuine respect by not cloaking what is actually happening as better not to know on the grounds that it might prejudice a sale. The current state of limbo does not prejudice a sale, it prejudices the loyalty and support of its bedrock foundations. If there is no interest in the purchase of the club, tell us. If there
is interest confirm it. We don't want names or numbers just not to be taken as disinterested bystanders to the process.
My money is still firmly on us being taken off the market. Randy will want Teddy back in his pram.

[Matt Collins]

https://audioboo.fm/boos/2381901-jonnygould-hodgsonhoward-in-conversation-about-the-future-of-aston-villa#t=1m39s

Interesting listen this. Updates on the finances (I couldn't tell whether HH was suggesting a £17m or £70m EBITDA) and market interest.

The suggestion here is that Lerner is here for the medium term, which I hadn't really quite picked up).

[AV82EC]

https://audioboo.fm/boos/2381901-jonnygould-hodgsonhoward-in-conversation-about-the-future-of-aston-villa#t=1m39s

Interesting listen this. Updates on the finances (I couldn't tell whether HH was suggesting a £17m or £70m EBITDA) and market interest.

The suggestion here is that Lerner is here for the medium term, which I hadn't really quite picked up).

I'd think £17m for EBITDA as to achieve £70m would have taken a turnaround of frightening cost cutting.  HH also seemed to be suggesting a Turnover of in excess of £110 million which I'd find very surprising. However we'll have to wait for accounts submission day for that joy!! However interesting article and thanks for the link.

[IFWaters]

2 scenarios - (1) no interested buyer or (2) a buyer but negotiating.

(1) is depressing.

Lets examine (2). If you are going to buy Villa right now the first thing you would want to protect your investment - ie buy / loan some quality players and try to prevent the chance of relegation. If you are going to do that you have to buy it , I would say, before the last week of the window. Remember when Man City were bought at the last minute of the window - they spent 32.5 million that evening on Robinho but that was it. I think Bank Hol Monday, or the CL qualifiers later that week has to be the cutoff for a takeover. After those CL qualifiers the 'value' of all clubs , I would say is pretty fixed for the year. Although it doesnt affect us directly it could indirectly - say if a buyer is looking at us or a club in another country which MIGHT make CL - say a Spanish side - then it might swing a deal in or against us as I doubt a buyer would just look at 1 club alone.

Maybe the Jan window if we are in a good position but who wants to emulate that Khan guy at Fulham and spunk 170 million on an asset now worth maybe half that ?

[Dante Lavelli]

Maybe the Jan window if we are in a good position but who wants to emulate that Khan guy at Fulham and spunk 170 million on an asset now worth maybe half that ?

I doubt Fulham's value will have dropped much, primarily because most of the 170m will haves reflected the value of the real estate rather than the sum of the players and more typical football assets.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

It would appear the threat of relegation is putting off any potential buyers more than anything else.

[old man villa fan]

It would appear the threat of relegation is putting off any potential buyers more than anything else.

If that is the case, they wouldn't have much confidence in themselves as owners.  Football clubs do not magically move up the table on their own.

These days, like any other business, football clubs need to be managed daily to be successful.  You need hands on management and that is what has been lacking with Lerner.  You cannot do it long distance over the telephone.  He employed a CEO and a team manager but I have never had the impression that they were given a free hand when money was concerned.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

It would appear the threat of relegation is putting off any potential buyers more than anything else.

If that is the case, they wouldn't have much confidence in themselves as owners.  Football clubs do not magically move up the table on their own.

These days, like any other business, football clubs need to be managed daily to be successful.  You need hands on management and that is what has been lacking with Lerner.  You cannot do it long distance over the telephone.  He employed a CEO and a team manager but I have never had the impression that they were given a free hand when money was concerned.

I agree about the need for "hands on management" but it appears you want the owner to give the manager "a free hand" where money is concerned and still operate like "any other business". Sorry but you can't have both. We gave MON a free hand but he refused to accept we operate like any other business and left us in this mess.

We're now acting like any other business, the problem is we have poor leadership on and off the pitch. Until both these issues are taken care of we will continue to struggle. Sadly, it's Catch 22. An owner not willing to invest medium to long term or brave/knowledgeable enough to make the necessary changes, so wh're stuck with a manager that doesn't know his arse ftom his elbow.

The timing hasn't helped us. Ideally a new owner at the beginning of the summer would have allowed us to replace Lambert. Now we're one week from the season starting, we haven't invested and we still have a fool of a manager. Relegation has never looked more likely than it does now. We all pretty much accept it will be a struggle, as I'm sure do the advisors of any potential buyers.

It's not a case of potential buyers not having "much confidence in themselves as owners", it's about the reality of what can be achieved in a very short period of time to help us avoid relegation and the costs that go with it. It's extremely risky business and there are plenty of examples out there of new owners that have failed.