Relegation?

[Des Little]

I can actually see us winning our next 3 games now

That's either the most staggering piece of optimism or you've begun the weekend early with a few light ales.

Or a bag of glue. Either way, it works!

[Damo70]

Statistically speaking ....

There are 6 teams below us, we need 3 of them to stay below us. No-one has games in hand on us. We have advantadges of respectively 1,1,2,4,5 and 8 points over them. We have the second best goal difference, although that could close.

Teams at the bottom rarely accrue more than 1.5 pts a game average (of those below us I would see only Fulham being capable of exceeding that).

So to throw it away we would I summise have to :

a) Get less than 3 points total from 5 games - so only 2 draws.
b) 3 other teams would need to get 37 or more points :
- Swansea - probably
- Baggies - possibly
- Norwich - never
- Fulham - very difficult, away at Spurs , Sat at 12.45
- Cardiff - no chance
Sunderland - no chance

By Sat 5pm, we could be statistically safe.

By the way, the best relegation escape in the Premier League years was I think West Ham under Redknapp about 1997, 21 points from 9 games. No-one else has ever exceeded 2 points average to get out of the bottom spots.

I don't know the stats but I think Redknapp might also have a claim on the second best relegation escape with Portsmouth, I think in 2006. Guess which other team in blue ended up getting relegated.

[dave.woodhall]

I thought the only team that have ever escaped relegation were that lot in stripes?

[KevinGage]

we're more than capable of getting no points from our remaining games and I wouldn't rule out a goal-difference shattering humping from Man City & Spurs so my sphincter will remain on twitch duty for a few weeks yet

Absolutely. I see this more likely than us managing two wins if more. We are much more adept at losing, we've got really good at it.

Our issue is more that we follow up one win with a run of defeats.  But we aren't so monumentally shit that we'll lose nine on the bounce. 

Villa being Villa, we could draw tomorrow, after dominating and deserving to win.  But that will break the current cycle, at least.

After that, I fancy us to pinch at least one win (most likely away from home).

[Dazvillain]

My concern is that we have not got a proven goal scorer and therefore will not pick up another win. I think Norwich and Sunderland will go but can see the others picking up some points in their games unlike us. They are all scoring and picking up points now . I really hope I'm wrong but can't see past us finishing third from bottom

[DB]

My concern is that we have not got a proven goal scorer and therefore will not pick up another win. I think Norwich and Sunderland will go but can see the others picking up some points in their games unlike us. They are all scoring and picking up points now . I really hope I'm wrong but can't see past us finishing third from bottom

Come on. Do you think that Albyion and Cardiff and Fulham will pick more points than to overtake us???

We have Soton and Hull at home 3 points from them we are ok......please don't quote me.

[Steve67]

Lose today against Southampton and we will begin to panic.  We do seem to be free falling at the worst possible time and I really hope the actions taken this week have a galvanizing effect. I would be chuffed with a point today. Swansea, Hull might be better opportunities for points though. We need Gabby to start firing, he has been woefully out of touch. Perhaps the club will blame this on the two errant coaches too.

[Des Little]

Looking forward to this thread being closed after the game today. We are going to win, ladies and gentlemen.

[Matt Collins]

I can't really see who's going to score goals for us and we don't seem capable of keeping a clean sheet. My hopes are all resting on the other sides not doing it

I hope people don't panic if we lose today as I fully expect to!

[silhillvilla]

Gabby needs to step up to the plate now, similar to how he did the end of last season. I a N'Zogbia likely to feature now ? We could do with him back.

[Chris Smith]

I can't really see who's going to score goals for us and we don't seem capable of keeping a clean sheet. My hopes are all resting on the other sides not doing it

I hope people don't panic if we lose today as I fully expect to!

While Benteke is clearly a massive loss other people have scored for us this season. It is time for them to take responsibility.

[edgysatsuma89]

If it were not for Norwich's fixtures I'd be worried. But I just can't see them doing anything. S'land, Norwich, Cardiff for me. Of course I shall be clenching still until survival.

[rob_bridge]

Looking forward to this thread being closed after the game today. We are going to win, ladies and gentlemen.

Best possibld outcome today

[ozzjim]

Cardiff worry me more than Norwich

[rob_bridge]

Cardiff worry me more than Norwich

Agree didn't see their victory last week coming. Hopefully Saints are already on the beach