The Paul Lambert thread - poll reset after our capitulation to Hull

[Richard E]

You should become a politician, Ads.

He's already a lawyer, why would he want to join another hated profession??

[Ads]

If you work from the premise that "team A who finished in 15th is better than team B who finished 17th, because the league shows that is the case" then you are totally ruling out the effect of luck, the impact of things like injuries, matters which are beyond a club's control.

That's fair enough, it is one way of looking at it, but if that is your standpoint, then you can't really be making judgements on us based on luck - so no "I want to see what we're like when Benteke is back", for example.

Why would I factor in a variable that doesn't exist? Team A who finished 15th last year was definitely better than Team B who finished 17th. That is an inescapable fact. This year things may be different or they may be the same, that depends on who Team A and B is and what they've done. Again, that is a general point.

Specifically, I think this years league is a poorer one than last, while I think our squad has more flesh on it in comparison. I don't think the manager has done us too many favours of late with how he has set us up and I have lost confidence in him to change around the 16th and two 15th placed finishes that have become our world of late.

[Clark W Griswold]

I don't know, I can see the bright lights of 14th beckoning, once Benteke gets a run.

[Clampy]

If you work from the premise that "team A who finished in 15th is better than team B who finished 17th, because the league shows that is the case" then you are totally ruling out the effect of luck, the impact of things like injuries, matters which are beyond a club's control.

That's fair enough, it is one way of looking at it, but if that is your standpoint, then you can't really be making judgements on us based on luck - so no "I want to see what we're like when Benteke is back", for example.

Why would I factor in a variable that doesn't exist? Team A who finished 15th last year was definitely better than Team B who finished 17th. That is an inescapable fact. This year things may be different or they may be the same, that depends on who Team A and B is and what they've done. Again, that is a general point.

Specifically, I think this years league is a poorer one than last, while I think our squad has more flesh on it in comparison. I don't think the manager has done us too many favours of late with how he has set us up and I have lost confidence in him to change around the 16th and two 15th placed finishes that have become our world of late.

I suppose you could argue that if the league is poorer than last year, then we should be doing better with the better squad we've got. You're right though, QPR are abysmal. They also beat us easily.

[pauliewalnuts]

If you work from the premise that "team A who finished in 15th is better than team B who finished 17th, because the league shows that is the case" then you are totally ruling out the effect of luck, the impact of things like injuries, matters which are beyond a club's control.

That's fair enough, it is one way of looking at it, but if that is your standpoint, then you can't really be making judgements on us based on luck - so no "I want to see what we're like when Benteke is back", for example.

Why would I factor in a variable that doesn't exist? Team A who finished 15th last year was definitely better than Team B who finished 17th. That is an inescapable fact. This year things may be different or they may be the same, that depends on who Team A and B is and what they've done. Again, that is a general point.

It isn't an escapable fact by any means.

A team can suffer horrific injuries which impact on its performance, it can have a run of bad luck, there are lots of cases where a team finishes above another by dint of having more points despite not being a better side.

Luck frequently comes into it. There are lots of ways this can happen. Not just injuries, one team might play a CL club a few days before a CL tie and face a weakened squad, whereas the other might face that team when it is already out of the CL.

What happens if two teams are neck and neck for the title, it comes down to the last day, and it is settled by something like Spurs second goal last week - bouncing in off someone's head.

Luck can, and does, play an enormous role in where teams finish.

What if Gerard Houllier hadn't had a heart problem resurface? What would have happened to us in our run-in?

What about terrible refereeing decisions? Again, like Sunday.

Results are influenced through things like that which are nothing to do with how good a team is or is not.

[Mister E]

I don't want Lambert, I gave him the benefit of the doubt for a long time because I thought I could see what he wanted to do with us, but this season has shown that he hasn't learned anything from the 2 years of struggling and I can't support a manager who refuses to learn from his mistakes.

However I'd rather stick with him than go for someone Pulis or Moyes, not because I don't think they could do better this year but because it pushes us further into the stale dinosaur football that we've been largely stuck with for the 15-20years.

This mirrors my thoughts. we need to be bold - which means we have to do it now, in order to give any changes time to bed in.

[pauliewalnuts]

I don't want Lambert, I gave him the benefit of the doubt for a long time because I thought I could see what he wanted to do with us, but this season has shown that he hasn't learned anything from the 2 years of struggling and I can't support a manager who refuses to learn from his mistakes.

However I'd rather stick with him than go for someone Pulis or Moyes, not because I don't think they could do better this year but because it pushes us further into the stale dinosaur football that we've been largely stuck with for the 15-20years.

This mirrors my thoughts. we need to be bold - which means we have to do it now, in order to give any changes time to bed in.

Moyes is a proven manager with an impressive CV.

However, I don't know if he is the style of manager we really need.

[Clark W Griswold]

Well Paulie, if you're going to blame it on luck I'd say we must have had a voodoo curse put on us because for a decent side, I've never seen bad luck like it over the past three years

[pauliewalnuts]

Well Paulie, if you're going to blame it on luck I'd say we must have had a voodoo curse put on us because for a decent side, I've never seen bad luck like it over the past three years

I'm not blaming anything on luck, I am just saying it does have a role in where teams finish. Luck impacts on results, and results ultimately determine final placings.

Look at Sunday, ref sent off Benteke, but failed to send off Mason. 10v10 and we'd have had a better chance of holding on for a point, or even three. Ultimately, zero points, through a factor entirely out of our control.

[Ads]

15th in 2013/14 was as good as Aston Villa were ever going to finish. You can change variables and hypothesise about "what if we had a differen't manager?" or "what if Benteke had stayed fit throughout?". They make interesting discussions and as with anything, cut both ways. We may have improved with a new manager, we may have been relegated. We may have scored more goals with Benteke, we may not. It's interesting, but it's irrelvant to the single fact; Aston Villa finished 15th.

I am interested in how we avoid finishing 15th again, because I think our squad has improved, but I don't think Lambert has it in him to get us any higher. We will see.

We're bordering the philosphical, but basing an argument on the fickle nature of a Roman godess is a pathway to madess. Luck does not exist, its merely a convenient construct for describing events. There are only decisions; Sanchez decision to dive in, Lambert's decision to keep him on, Kane's decision to fight for the free kick, Lamella's decision to let him have the free kick, Baker's decision to join the wall, to jump, etc, etc.

[Clark W Griswold]

Well Paulie, if you're going to blame it on luck I'd say we must have had a voodoo curse put on us because for a decent side, I've never seen bad luck like it over the past three years

I'm not blaming anything on luck, I am just saying it does have a role in where teams finish. Luck impacts on results, and results ultimately determine final placings.

Look at Sunday, ref sent off Benteke, but failed to send off Mason. 10v10 and we'd have had a better chance of holding on for a point, or even three. Ultimately, zero points, through a factor entirely out of our control.

I agree that luck effects individual games, like Sunday as you point out, but I do believe that for the most part it evens itself out over the season. It might effect you by a place either way, but really you are where you are because of the quality of the team/squad and indeed the manager running the show.

[paul_e]

but conversely the only meaningful measure (in terms of relegation or survival) of how well a club has performed on the pitch is results the team in 15th had better results and the 5 teams below them.  What elements were involved in them being better is largely irrelevant to the discussion because once you pick something as a turning point it's impossible to accurately predict what difference that made.

The Columbian performance at the world cup is the best way to describe it.  By all accounts losing Falcao for the tournament should've weakened them but in reality they performed well above anyones expectations because James stepped up and led the team in a way he'd not done before.

[Clark W Griswold]

15th in 2013/14 was as good as Aston Villa were ever going to finish. You can change variables and hypothesise about "what if we had a differen't manager?" or "what if Benteke had stayed fit throughout?". They make interesting discussions and as with anything, cut both ways. We may have improved with a new manager, we may have been relegated. We may have scored more goals with Benteke, we may not. It's interesting, but it's irrelvant to the single fact; Aston Villa finished 15th.

I am interested in how we avoid finishing 15th again, because I think our squad has improved, but I don't think Lambert has it in him to get us any higher. We will see.

We're bordering the philosphical, but basing an argument on the fickle nature of a Roman godess is a pathway to madess. Luck does not exist, its merely a convenient construct for describing events. There are only decisions; Sanchez decision to dive in, Lambert's decision to keep him on, Kane's decision to fight for the free kick, Lamella's decision to let him have the free kick, Baker's decision to join the wall, to jump, etc, etc.

Luck does exist in life, someone who won £50m on the lottery by randomly choosing the winning numbers is lucky. In football, I think it exists also, but in the roulette of decisions and injuries over the season, most teams probably get a reasonably equal share of good and bad luck, thus making it only a very insignificant consideration.

[Mister E]

I don't want Lambert, I gave him the benefit of the doubt for a long time because I thought I could see what he wanted to do with us, but this season has shown that he hasn't learned anything from the 2 years of struggling and I can't support a manager who refuses to learn from his mistakes.

However I'd rather stick with him than go for someone Pulis or Moyes, not because I don't think they could do better this year but because it pushes us further into the stale dinosaur football that we've been largely stuck with for the 15-20years.

This mirrors my thoughts. we need to be bold - which means we have to do it now, in order to give any changes time to bed in.

Moyes is a proven manager with an impressive CV.

However, I don't know if he is the style of manager we really need.

It's the "what we really need" that's interesting.
If you take two examples of recent managerial changes:
- Crystal Palace bring back Colin: his approach and style are completely as expected and they may or may not survive this season. A clear short-term choice designed to do what needs to be done while a takeover is engineered.
- Sourhampton bring in Koeman as well as going on a player-disposal binge. I thought they'd be relegation fodder but - no - they have surpassed all expectations with an immediate definition in style, approach and outcomes.
Neither example is of a club that would outbid us on player-wages; there are very few factors of which you could say Villa are clearly outdone by them. What I mean is that their example could easily have been us, if Lerner had pulled the trigger on TSMII.

The problem is Lerner: not because he won't spend but because he doesn't appear to know what he wants and has no apparent guiding plan.

[Ads]

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