To What End?

[eastie]

Its around about February and March than one or two sides give up the fight. I might wager that Fulham and Cardiff could be the two to get cut well a drift come the end.

If Fulham's woeful form carries on, it wouldn't surprise me if they panic and turn to Curbishley to save them.

Was thinking the same last night as I saw him sitting in the stand - wouldn't surprise me at all to see them make a change of that kind very soon.

[Toronto Villa]

If we win our next two games it will create not only that separation but create that level of desperation for the teams below us. If we play at the current level of consistency we'll likely get 4 points, not 6. It's very unlikely any of the teams below us looking at their fixtures will win both of their games and especially with a few teams playing each other.

[not3bad]

Win the next 2 games and we can virtually forget any talk of being dragged into trouble , we need to go out on the front foot and take the game to west ham - i really feel this is a great chance to finally land back to back wins.

We'll win against West Ham, get a bit optimistic and then run up agianst a Cardiff with a new manager surge and lose and be all doom ridden again.

[Clampy]

Win the next 2 games and we can virtually forget any talk of being dragged into trouble , we need to go out on the front foot and take the game to west ham - i really feel this is a great chance to finally land back to back wins.

We'll win against West Ham, get a bit optimistic and then run up agianst a Cardiff with a new manager surge and lose and be all doom ridden again.

I'm more optimistic about beating Cardiff than West Ham.

[Concrete John]

Our main problem is the inability to go on a little run and pick up some points. It's why the Everton defeat and performance was so bloody frustrating.

Inconsistency is the hallmark of a midtable side.

[Concrete John]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

All three of those have been injured at various points this season, yet we've still managed to at least keep our heads above water relegation wise.  Yes, losing three key players woud hurt us, but the chances of that are now better than a side below us losing three key players, yet that never comes into our thinking, does it?

To my mind, it's a very negative outlook to expect enough teams below us to go on these sort of runs and drag us into it.  Yes, it's possible, but no more than us doing something similar and pulling further clear.  Plus, we are talking about quite a few teams needing to do that, which again makes it highly unlikely if you start calculating the odds.

TBH i think Vlaar is the key man to keep injury free and could make a massive difference to how our season transpires. Unfortunately he's one of the most injury prone.

There's no negativity in looking at possibilities and probabilities, and nowhere have i said 'i expect' everyone to catch up, I've said it could go either way and It is hardly the massive leap of probability that some people seem to make however, especially over the 14 games we have left. Of the teams below us, there is 1 team 2 points behind, 4 teams 3 points behind, and 2 teams 4 points behind and West Ham 5 points behind in the relegation spot in 18th. Of those teams, Cardiff, Sunderland, West Ham and Stoke got wins last weekend, and Hull and West Brom a draw.

I expect if you calculate the odds of that kind of gap being closed and overturned over the next 14 games, the odds wouldn't be as far fetched as you make out.

So you expect us to stay up?

I'm not a betting man and can't access gambling websites from work, so would anyone like to check what our actual odds to go down are?

[Ads]

Win the next 2 games and we can virtually forget any talk of being dragged into trouble , we need to go out on the front foot and take the game to west ham - i really feel this is a great chance to finally land back to back wins.

We'll win against West Ham, get a bit optimistic and then run up agianst a Cardiff with a new manager surge and lose and be all doom ridden again.

I'm more optimistic about beating Cardiff than West Ham.

So am I. With Gabby likely back, I think we will drill Cardiff. If anything, I can see us scambling a 0-0 against a tedious West Ham.

[not3bad]

Win the next 2 games and we can virtually forget any talk of being dragged into trouble , we need to go out on the front foot and take the game to west ham - i really feel this is a great chance to finally land back to back wins.

We'll win against West Ham, get a bit optimistic and then run up agianst a Cardiff with a new manager surge and lose and be all doom ridden again.

I'm more optimistic about beating Cardiff than West Ham.

West Ham were pretty unadventorous when they came to Villa Park last year, and Carrol's out.

[paul_e]

I'm not a betting man and can't access gambling websites from work, so would anyone like to check what our actual odds to go down are?

Quick look on oddschecker sees most have us at between 12-1 and 16-1 - no one has closed the book on us yet, but then a fair few still have the book open for Newcastle and Southampton.  2 wins in the next 3 qnd you'll get silly odds.

[Ad@m]

Like others have said, the real plus point of being 10th, even though points are tight, is that it requires so many teams below us to all do well for us to end up in the shit.

Saturday's results were widely considered to be absolutely terrible for us and we went from 10th to 10th!  The chances of another weekend of all the results going against us are highly unlikely.  But like others have said, pick up 6-8 points from the next 4 games and we'll be virtually safe with two and a half months of the season left.

[Dribbler]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

All three of those have been injured at various points this season, yet we've still managed to at least keep our heads above water relegation wise.  Yes, losing three key players woud hurt us, but the chances of that are now better than a side below us losing three key players, yet that never comes into our thinking, does it?

To my mind, it's a very negative outlook to expect enough teams below us to go on these sort of runs and drag us into it.  Yes, it's possible, but no more than us doing something similar and pulling further clear.  Plus, we are talking about quite a few teams needing to do that, which again makes it highly unlikely if you start calculating the odds.

TBH i think Vlaar is the key man to keep injury free and could make a massive difference to how our season transpires. Unfortunately he's one of the most injury prone.

There's no negativity in looking at possibilities and probabilities, and nowhere have i said 'i expect' everyone to catch up, I've said it could go either way and It is hardly the massive leap of probability that some people seem to make however, especially over the 14 games we have left. Of the teams below us, there is 1 team 2 points behind, 4 teams 3 points behind, and 2 teams 4 points behind and West Ham 5 points behind in the relegation spot in 18th. Of those teams, Cardiff, Sunderland, West Ham and Stoke got wins last weekend, and Hull and West Brom a draw.

I expect if you calculate the odds of that kind of gap being closed and overturned over the next 14 games, the odds wouldn't be as far fetched as you make out.

So you expect us to stay up?

I'm not a betting man and can't access gambling websites from work, so would anyone like to check what our actual odds to go down are?

I certainly hope we stay up (goes without saying) and i think there are 3 worse teams than us in the premiership, so yes i i think we'll stay up, though think it might be a bit tighter than we would like and there may be a few 'squeaky bum' moments before we are ultimately safe. 2 wins in the next 2 games would certainly reassure me though.

Re the odds, we range between 10-1 and 14-1 on most bookies websites, though you have to remember those odds are as much about where the money is, as they are the odds of it happening.

[brian green]

The thing I find hardest to swallow is that here we are at this time of year yet again having the same debate about whether things are getting better or getting worse.   Another season slips away into the history books with nothing for us to to be genuinely excited about.   Put out more flags we are not quite as bad as we were last season.   Give the manager a new contract and a pay rise.

If we survive, what needs happen but I am certain will not happen, is that not only must the manager be given substantial funds in the summer to buy at least three proven quality players but an adequate amount of money has to be earmarked for spending in the January 2015 window if we are still as wobbly as we are now.   We must not have a third year when the premiership status of the club is gambled with.   If we are ten points above the relegation positions the money does not get spent but rolled up into the spending of summer 2015.

It will not happen of course.   Faulkner and Lambert will say what they think will please the owner and the dice will be rolled again.  Change of the magnitude we need and the speed at which we need to change will, in my opinion only come with a change of ownership.

If that does not happen it is very long odds on it being more of the same for years to come.

[Toronto Villa]

Jesus Brian. You sound depressed and make out like it is the end of the world and we are going to be shit forever. Why can you not accept that there is a chance that things could possibly improve. You might as well knit your own scarf: Proud History, No Future.

[danlanza]

Jesus Brian. You sound depressed and make out like it is the end of the world and we are going to be shit forever. Why can you not accept that there is a chance that things could possibly improve. You might as well knit your own scarf: Proud History, No Future.

He is not depressed, he is just in France.
Beautiful country, by the way.

[ozzjim]

I think we will get 3 better quality players in the summer Brian, I really do. I have a bit of optimism on that. I agree on Jan 15, but think there was money this winter, just getting targets did not happen.

We need to get players like Bertrand to sign long term with us and then target players of similar quality to him and build our first team up. I think a fair few will leave too, and it will be a different squad next season. Lambert has form for brining in 6 plus players a summer, and although I think 3 will be more quality I reckon we will get a few more Bacuna type punts too.

As for the league, I think we will draw the next 2. Leaving us on 29 and still involved, probably in about 12th. I would sooner win one, lose one. Which I don't know.