To What End?

[eastie]

8 points from that lot, at the least.

6 pts and we would have 33 after 28 games. Virtually safe. Gotta target the two home wins there.

AAt the least. I think Cardiff are more than beatable and I would fancy a point at Newcastle.

All four are more than beatable but it depends which villa turn up - a high tempo up and at em villa will pick up plenty of points , but if its the dour negative villa then we could lose .

I hope we can pick up at least 7 points from the next 4 games but with villa this season who knows what to expect from one half to another - lets hope we can get an early goal against the hammers and open them up.

[Ads]

If we were sitting in the bottom 5 and only 5 points away from the relegation zone, then I think you'd have a point. However, being 10th and expecting 7 teams to suddenly reverse the habbits of a season is not going to happen, especially as they're playing each other too.

We're better than 10 sides below us and will continue to be so throughout the balance of the season.

[Dribbler]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

If we agree that 40 points is the safety mark then we are ahead of schedule by my reckoning.  I predicted one point from our last 3 games and that a draw against Albion.  We were back on 23 points then.  If my predictions stay on course....wins against West Ham, Norwich, Fulham at home and away at Cardiff should be expected.  Then draws with Hull, Stoke, Southampton or Newcastle we see ourselves above the safety mark.  It's possible that we could lose some of those win games and still be safe.  We would need a really atrocious show of form not to get 40 points though from where we are now.

Do you think 40 points will be enough this season though?

[Ads]

I think if you finish on 40 points, then you'll be a good few clear of the drop. I would hope we can get as close to 50 as possible.

[Concrete John]

West Ham, as 3rd from bottom presently, are on course for 35 points after 38 games.  So they need at least a 15% upturn in form to make 40 points not be enough.  We're on course for 43, by the way.

[eastie]

I think if you finish on 40 points, then you'll be a good few clear of the drop. I would hope we can get as close to 50 as possible.

The target for me is 50 points and 10th place - for clubs wishing to avoid relegation I think 40 points will still  be required as nobody is cut adrift this season .

[eastie]

West Ham, as 3rd from bottom presently, are on course for 35 points after 38 games.  So they need at least a 15% upturn in form to make 40 points not be enough.  We're on course for 43, by the way.

True but as palace and sunderland have shown a couple of wins can lift you up the table fast with things as tight as they are - I wouldn't rule anyone out yet but of the teams down there Fulham look the worst to me.

[Clampy]

Our main problem is the inability to go on a little run and pick up some points. It's why the Everton defeat and performance was so bloody frustrating.

[Toronto Villa]

The reason why those teams are below us is that in terms of consistency they have been consistently worse albeit marginally. That's why, the probability of them being consistently better over the remaining games is quite low. Not at all dismissing how tight things are but basically we would need to see a downturn in our level of consistency combined with at least 8 of the 10 sides below us to see an upturn in their consistency to see us slide into that danger zone. Sounds obvious but is always better being higher in the table and having points on the board than predicting the future.

[Ads]

Its around about February and March than one or two sides give up the fight. I might wager that Fulham and Cardiff could be the two to get cut well a drift come the end.

[Dribbler]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

All three of those have been injured at various points this season, yet we've still managed to at least keep our heads above water relegation wise.  Yes, losing three key players woud hurt us, but the chances of that are now better than a side below us losing three key players, yet that never comes into our thinking, does it?

To my mind, it's a very negative outlook to expect enough teams below us to go on these sort of runs and drag us into it.  Yes, it's possible, but no more than us doing something similar and pulling further clear.  Plus, we are talking about quite a few teams needing to do that, which again makes it highly unlikely if you start calculating the odds.

TBH i think Vlaar is the key man to keep injury free and could make a massive difference to how our season transpires. Unfortunately he's one of the most injury prone.

There's no negativity in looking at possibilities and probabilities, and nowhere have i said 'i expect' everyone to catch up, I've said it could go either way and It is hardly the massive leap of probability that some people seem to make however, especially over the 14 games we have left. Of the teams below us, there is 1 team 2 points behind, 4 teams 3 points behind, and 2 teams 4 points behind and West Ham 5 points behind in the relegation spot in 18th. Of those teams, Cardiff, Sunderland, West Ham and Stoke got wins last weekend, and Hull and West Brom a draw.

I expect if you calculate the odds of that kind of gap being closed and overturned over the next 14 games, the odds wouldn't be as far fetched as you make out.

[Clampy]

Its around about February and March than one or two sides give up the fight. I might wager that Fulham and Cardiff could be the two to get cut well a drift come the end.

If Fulham's woeful form carries on, it wouldn't surprise me if they panic and turn to Curbishley to save them.

[Dribbler]

Its around about February and March than one or two sides give up the fight. I might wager that Fulham and Cardiff could be the two to get cut well a drift come the end.

I have a feeling 2 teams will be cut adrift but that 18th spot will be the one that keeps up with the rest of the pack and keeps everyone on their toes. Would be great if we could have 3 teams cut adrift and save us a bit of worrying.

[eastie]

Win the next 2 games and we can virtually forget any talk of being dragged into trouble , we need to go out on the front foot and take the game to west ham - i really feel this is a great chance to finally land back to back wins.

[not3bad]

TBH i think Vlaar is the key man to keep injury free and could make a massive difference to how our season transpires. Unfortunately he's one of the most injury prone.

Of the risks Villa have taken recently not getting in cover for Vlaar is the most significant I reckon.