The Value Of Aston Villa

[Steve67]

What's something is worth is what somebody is prepared to pay for it. As an oil rich sheik looking to increase my particular emirate's brand I would be prepared to pay more for Villa than WBA. You would have a bigger ground, bigger fanbase, more awareness around the world etc.

^^ Nail. Head. End of. ^^ 

Would anyone want to buy West Brom when they can buy Aston Villa instead?  Absolutely not.  No way.  Never.  History, fanbase, size, potential.  Why buy Tesco's when you can buy Waitrose instead?  (damn those emotions!!)

[Mister E]

The formula that the author has developed introduces the factors of ground utlisation and salaries as a % of revenue. In both these measures we are disadvantaged.
In fact, it is is bound to favour those clubs
(i) that decided several years' ago to keep the wage bill down, and / or
(ii) have a small ground that is usually sold out, and / or
(iii) increased the capacity of their ground as well as attracting new demand.

Arsenal are probably the archetype: tight wage parameters, new ground, regularly sold out.

In addition to all of that, regular appearances in Europe ensure a high level of TV revenue.

There's a flaw in some of that, though: if a club owns its ground outright, the capacity utilisation is a bit of a red herring, in that it's not having to fund its biggest tangible asset. Furthermore, because they include revenue as a separate factor, its earning potential is reflected eslewhere in the formula.

[Mister E]

What's something is worth is what somebody is prepared to pay for it. As an oil rich sheik looking to increase my particular emirate's brand I would be prepared to pay more for Villa than WBA. You would have a bigger ground, bigger fanbase, more awareness around the world etc.

^^ Nail. Head. End of. ^^ 

Would anyone want to buy West Brom when they can buy Aston Villa instead?  Absolutely not.  No way.  Never.  History, fanbase, size, potential.  Why buy Tesco's when you can buy Waitrose instead?  (damn those emotions!!)

Maybe because one is more profitable and has better realisable assets for the price paid.

Unless the buyer can actually realise the financial value of "history, fanbase, size, potential" the only reason to buy would be emotional.
Have you got c£100m spare, plus the considerable working capital needs? - if so, it's yours!

[Hillbilly]

Big ol' pinch of salt here. Asset valuation models are a bit of a minefield. They are very sensitive to the parameters and assumptions made. These models are also where accounting and economics rub together and cause chaffing. The one thing that jumps out here is the inclusion of player valuations. He notes Bale. But if Bale runs down his contract he will be worth nothing. Compare to Benteke who will be depreciating in a strict accounting sense but in reality is appreciating in value, for the next year at least (I see he's just added another million to the price with the goals v USA!). Conversely he may stink out the joint next season or get badly injured and attract a lower valuation. This may apply to several of our squad (Westwood, Lowton). Essentially, there is a risk dimension that is difficult to quantify.

That said, no sensible bloody model on earth would value the Stripey Filth over the Villa. And right there his model fails the sniff test.

[richardhubbard]

It's worth what Lerner wants to sell it for . As he owns it 100 per cent trying to do currently a PE ratio is irrelevant as he not touting it for sale

[avfc_1874]

There's noway FC Handsworth are worth more than us.

[AV82EC]

In this model we're screwed because of the loans and our underutilised seats.  I know randy bought us for about £64m and I seem to recall Risso in one of his wanktastic Annual Financial Results rundowns saying that Lerner had converted some loan notes to equity, £80m seems to ring a bell, which would put some level of value at £140m to Lerner.  However that was when we were top 6 and this model will reward clubs who are performing towards the top of the league. 

[Mazrim]

Sorry but that article is as scientific as Jesus horses.
Absolute laughable bollocks.

[danlanza]

We are priceless.

[BC54 VFC]

There's noway FC Handsworth are worth more than us.

Please do not insult my birthplace by inferring that it's the home of WBA.

[Percy McCarthy]

There's noway FC Handsworth are worth more than us.

Please do not insult my birthplace by inferring that it's the home of WBA.

Yes.  Handsworth is a wonderful place and doesn't deserve that. And there's more Villa there, as you'd expect seeing as it is more or less our birthplace.

[Shrek]

It's an interesting one.  The angle he's going for is that if you take the emotion out of it and look at each club as a performing business then the likes of West Brom are worth more than Villa. 

Something else that took my eye was the author's view that West Ham will be worth far more once they get the Olympic stadium and, likewise, Everton would be worth far more with a new ground.  Surely it's not as simple as that?  Randy may as well knock down the North Stand and get us up to 55-60k pronto if that's the case.

  Looking at earlier figures and Forbes valuations I just can't see how the likes of Man City (prior to the oil money) were valued at more than Villa...and as for Blues going for ninety-odd million!  I think there's as much integrity in all this as there is in valuing used cars.

I dont understand how, in anyway West Brom are more valuable than Villa.

Our training Ground, Stadium, playing staff, academy and standing within football are all superior to West Brom.

[silhillvilla]

The value of a football club is surely mostly now about future income potential from the ever increasing global tv deals.
Having said that I'd value us as about £300m at the moment

[Ad@m]

The value of a football club is surely mostly now about future income potential from the ever increasing global tv deals.

Not really. Since football began (in 1992) football clubs have consistently run at a loss because the ever increasing TV deal money just flows straight through to the players and agents. There's nothing to suggest this new deal will be any different.

As for the Villa's value according to this guy, the big issue are our loans to Randy. I imagine the Boggies are pretty debt free so in reality you'd have to stump up double the cash to buy the Villa over them on this guys workings.

[Handsworth Wood Villa]

There's noway FC Handsworth are worth more than us.

Please do not insult my birthplace by inferring that it's the home of WBA.

Yes.  Handsworth is a wonderful place and doesn't deserve that. And there's more Villa there, as you'd expect seeing as it is more or less our birthplace.

Would add value to their brand if they said they were from Birmingham.