Who's left in the Battle

[Des Little]

If there is a God in heaven, it'll be Stoke, QPR and Sunderland going down.

However back in the real world, perm any three from all the teams Stoke down and they'll come from there.  It's anyone's guess.

[TelfordVilla]

If you swap our results against Southampton and leave everything else the same. 6 more points for us...6 less for them...we are 10th and they are in the relegation zone. How small a change around is that when you reflect on us being 1-0 up at half time at their place and their dodgy penalty winner at our place.

[avfc_1874]

I really hope Stoke get sucked into it and take the 3rd relegation spot.

[paulcomben]

I just did the BBC Predictor and had Reading, QPR and West Ham going down, Fulham just above them and Villa on 37 points. Surprised about West Ham, but I tried to be matter-of-fact about every score. Also, Wigan shot up to 10th and Man Utd broke the 100 points barrier. Can't be right...

[Lastfootstamper]

I see Lawro in the Mirror is still tipping us to go down with Reading & QPR. With Wigan staying clear of the drop despite being 3 points behind us.

Evidently Sunderland, Southampton et-al have nothing to worry about.

Well heaven forbid he'd ever actually give something some thought before it emanates from his head.
"Shit, I've gotta get that article emailed off in five minutes! Where's that league table? Right, bottom two, they'll do, Wigan's goal difference is better than Villa's, bound to win their game in hand, so let's have them in there too.
And......send.
Phew, almost didn't get paid there!"

It's easy to knock Lawro, but it's a valid opinion and could quite easily bear true.  Just because it doesn't fit with some new found optimism here, I could certainly see Wigan finishing above us - they are masters at escaping.  Whether anyone else is a better bet to get dragged down other than us, well that is speculative.  Hopefully he'll be proved wrong, but mocking him for a perfectly plausible prediction is tempting fate I think.  Anybody would think we're already safe!

I hold my hands up. I've not read the article, and my original retort was mainly based on my own opinions of his rather lazy contributions to Saturday nights' telly. A little hypocritical of me, thinking about it.
I shall endeavour to read it anon.
I may be back.

[MoetVillan]

honestly I think Norwich despite their result yesterday could still get dragged in, they remind me of our position last year.  few bad results and nerves click in.  See also Wet Spam.  Id be pretty worried at Sunderland too, i think they are one of the three.  Wigan will probably escape.  Newcastle have enough to play enough games and get the wins needed to be safe.  Stoke dont have the goals.  Southampton have played fantastically well recently, see their performances at OT, against Shitty, Everton and Liverpool.  It must worry them that they are still close to the bottom though. Reading look doomed and while a skilful team, QPR dont seem to have the fight.  Bennett got some stick on here, but never gave up, unlike "Dont-give-a-fuck-Fabio" as Weimann beat him time and again for desire.  Not pace or skill, Desire.  That I think is what will keep us up. 

For me, QPR, Sunderland and Reading.  Gutted for Reading, Id swap them with Wigan anyday.  But my outside bet is still Norwich instead of QPR

[seanthevillan]

I don't think anyone is saying we're not still right in it, just we had to win two games and we did - its given us a chance.

Also while I accept that some teams might have harder run ins on paper, its at the stage now where this is a week-by-week brawl - that's why consistent performances are important (as Martinez always says), because you just need to pick up points wherever you can.

I just want to look at the table after the Liverpool match and not see us in the bottom three, and then do the same 7 more times. I don't care who goes down as long as it isn't us.

[l_mckay]

I think reading and qpr are all but gone (fingers crossed ) then it's out of Sunderland wigan and us. If we can beat Fulham and sunderlandnat home and win 1 of the away games at stoke or Norwich and a couple,of draws that should be plenty for us

[Lastfootstamper]

I see Lawro in the Mirror is still tipping us to go down with Reading & QPR. With Wigan staying clear of the drop despite being 3 points behind us.

Evidently Sunderland, Southampton et-al have nothing to worry about.

Well heaven forbid he'd ever actually give something some thought before it emanates from his head.
"Shit, I've gotta get that article emailed off in five minutes! Where's that league table? Right, bottom two, they'll do, Wigan's goal difference is better than Villa's, bound to win their game in hand, so let's have them in there too.
And......send.
Phew, almost didn't get paid there!"

It's easy to knock Lawro, but it's a valid opinion and could quite easily bear true.  Just because it doesn't fit with some new found optimism here, I could certainly see Wigan finishing above us - they are masters at escaping.  Whether anyone else is a better bet to get dragged down other than us, well that is speculative.  Hopefully he'll be proved wrong, but mocking him for a perfectly plausible prediction is tempting fate I think.  Anybody would think we're already safe!

I hold my hands up. I've not read the article, and my original retort was mainly based on my own opinions of his rather lazy contributions to Saturday nights' telly. A little hypocritical of me, thinking about it.
I shall endeavour to read it anon.
I may be back.

Right, read it.
With in-depth analysis like "their results this season have proven you cannot rely on Aston Villa at all", I'm sticking with what I said. Seeing how the majority of his piece is a contribution to the media's bi-monthly, tongue-clucking, beard-stroking debate over what's to be done with referees, it seems purely tacked on to the end, and I venture that, as such, it was given very little, if any, thought and consideration. I just think that as a paid "expert", he could do a little homework once in a while.

Agreed that it doesn't alter the fact that we're still in it, maybe not up to our necks anymore, but at least waist-deep.

[nigel]

honestly I think Norwich despite their result yesterday could still get dragged in, they remind me of our position last year.  few bad results and nerves click in.  See also Wet Spam.  Id be pretty worried at Sunderland too, i think they are one of the three.  Wigan will probably escape.  Newcastle have enough to play enough games and get the wins needed to be safe.  Stoke dont have the goals.  Southampton have played fantastically well recently, see their performances at OT, against Shitty, Everton and Liverpool.  It must worry them that they are still close to the bottom though. Reading look doomed and while a skilful team, QPR dont seem to have the fight.  Bennett got some stick on here, but never gave up, unlike "Dont-give-a-fuck-Fabio" as Weimann beat him time and again for desire.  Not pace or skill, Desire.  That I think is what will keep us up. 

For me, QPR, Sunderland and Reading.  Gutted for Reading, Id swap them with Wigan anyday.  But my outside bet is still Norwich instead of QPR

Agree.
I think Reading are down
QPR have the quality to pull clear, but I'm not sure their players will scrap in games.

After yesterdays results Norwich are far from safe they have Wigan next game.
Sunderland v Man U
Southampton v Chelsea
Newcastle have Man C, away.
QPR are away to Fulham

[curiousorange]

I'm optimistic (well, more than I was a couple of weeks ago) but two wins is just the stepping stone. After QPR won against Southampton and Blunderland everyone was hyping up QPR's 'definite' safety. Now their little revival has stalled it's back to 'oh God, Harry's going to be relegated'. It only takes one unfortunate loss for us to create that scenario again amongst our fans and the press.

Like Seanthevillain says, I'm resistant to the idea we can put a little run together and coast into safety. Every week we must better the results of a near rival until there aren't enough games left to be in trouble. What's disturbing is if you look at who's playing who at the same time we're playing our own fixtures. There are far too many games where you think "Wigan will get something there" or "Win for Newcastle". I know we need to be concerned how Villa do ultimately, but we need to take a breath. Job not even half done, too many points for others to play for.

[john e]

 my 'if Carlsberg did relegation' teams are Stoke, West Ham and Sunderland

not because i have anything against the clubs in particular, in fact i dont mind any of them TBH
just cant stand the managers and the football they play,

[curiousorange]

I don't accept anybody's 'down' yet, even if Reading seem to have everything stacked against them. But I'd be happy if two of the relegation spots stayed as they are right now - I think you can guess which ones.

[paul_e]

I'm optimistic (well, more than I was a couple of weeks ago) but two wins is just the stepping stone. After QPR won against Southampton and Blunderland everyone was hyping up QPR's 'definite' safety. Now their little revival has stalled it's back to 'oh God, Harry's going to be relegated'. It only takes one unfortunate loss for us to create that scenario again amongst our fans and the press.

Like Seanthevillain says, I'm resistant to the idea we can put a little run together and coast into safety. Every week we must better the results of a near rival until there aren't enough games left to be in trouble. What's disturbing is if you look at who's playing who at the same time we're playing our own fixtures. There are far too many games where you think "Wigan will get something there" or "Win for Newcastle". I know we need to be concerned how Villa do ultimately, but we need to take a breath. Job not even half done, too many points for others to play for.

our situation is nothing like QPR.  Our wins have put us in control of our fate, if we play to our strengths and get 2-3 more wins and a couple of draws we're fine, QPR were still one defeat away from needing to gain nearly a point a game more than at least us.  They need about 2 points a game for the rest of the season to stand a chance, given that is form similar to Man Utd I just can't see it.  QPR and Reading are down unless someone gets 5-6 defeats in a row, with only really sunderland looking capable of that at the minute (of the teams they can catch that is, I wouldn't be surprised if reading on a run like that).

[Matt Collins]

Pretty much down - reading
QPR I think will put on a good run and go pretty close to staying up if the dividing line is low thirty points
I think Wigan and villa will win 2/3 and lose a few too. Can't see either being too clear
Southampton I fancy to be pretty comfortable

I think Sunderland are in a lot of trouble

And I agree that it's conceivable that west ham, stoke or norwich could get sucked in. None are scoring goals. But I can only see any of these sides going down if there's a high points threshold to stay up.

So I see two potential scenarios:

A) where there's a low points scenario. Here I think reading, Wigan and Sunderland will drop

B) where I think reading, QPR and west ham might go

Villa are still very much at risk in either scenario though. We need to get a couple more wins quickly. 3 out of 7 before the final game would do it, but that's a tough ask. I reckon our best chances are stoke, norwich and Fulham. If we can win two of those plus pick up a couple of draws, I'd hope we'll be ok. That'd put us on 38 points going into the Wigan game