It's that time of year again!

[Louzie0]

We could be the Next Big Thing.

[silhillvilla]

Assuming we stay up, forget all the crap, we are a big club with big potential , we have the history and pedigree. We would easily fetch £300m in the mad world of Premier League football.

Based on what? In a considerably betterfinancial state less than 10 years ago we were worth £63m.

What justification is there to say anyonewould pay £300m?

10 years is a long time in football
That's why arsenal are going for +$2billion !

[Dave]

Assuming we stay up, forget all the crap, we are a big club with big potential , we have the history and pedigree. We would easily fetch £300m in the mad world of Premier League football.

Based on what? In a considerably betterfinancial state less than 10 years ago we were worth £63m.

What justification is there to say anyonewould pay £300m?

Less than ten years ago we were sharing television revenue of approximately £1.6bn. Assuming we stay up we'd be sharing television revenue of just over £5bn.

In terms of the income that the club would generate, the amount would increase considerably so it's not unreasonable to assume that cost of the business that would generate that income should also increase.

[Ad@m]

Assuming we stay up, forget all the crap, we are a big club with big potential , we have the history and pedigree. We would easily fetch £300m in the mad world of Premier League football.

Based on what? In a considerably betterfinancial state less than 10 years ago we were worth £63m.

What justification is there to say anyonewould pay £300m?

10 years is a long time in football
That's why arsenal are going for +$2billion !

You're just plucking numbers out of thin air. Who says Arsenal are being bought for more than £2bn? And even if they are, how's that of more relevance to the value of the Villa than what someone paid to buy the Villa 6 years ago?

[Risso]

Assuming we stay up, forget all the crap, we are a big club with big potential , we have the history and pedigree. We would easily fetch £300m in the mad world of Premier League football.

Based on what? In a considerably betterfinancial state less than 10 years ago we were worth £63m.

What justification is there to say anyonewould pay £300m?

Less than ten years ago we were sharing television revenue of approximately £1.6bn. Assuming we stay up we'd be sharing television revenue of just over £5bn.

In terms of the income that the club would generate, the amount would increase considerably so it's not unreasonable to assume that cost of the business that would generate that income should also increase.

You have to factor in debts and accumulated losses though, plus expenses and the chances of being around to enjoy the increased TV money over the next few years.  I don't think anybody would pay anything like £300m

[Dave]

Assuming we stay up, forget all the crap, we are a big club with big potential , we have the history and pedigree. We would easily fetch £300m in the mad world of Premier League football.

Based on what? In a considerably betterfinancial state less than 10 years ago we were worth £63m.

What justification is there to say anyonewould pay £300m?

Less than ten years ago we were sharing television revenue of approximately £1.6bn. Assuming we stay up we'd be sharing television revenue of just over £5bn.

In terms of the income that the club would generate, the amount would increase considerably so it's not unreasonable to assume that cost of the business that would generate that income should also increase.

You have to factor in debts and accumulated losses though, plus expenses and the chances of being around to enjoy the increased TV money over the next few years.  I don't think anybody would pay anything like £300m

I don't think they would either, but I'm pretty sure that if we were to be sold then our market value would be a significant increase on what was paid. I'd have said about £200m wouldn't be unfair.

[Ad@m]

Assuming we stay up, forget all the crap, we are a big club with big potential , we have the history and pedigree. We would easily fetch £300m in the mad world of Premier League football.

Based on what? In a considerably betterfinancial state less than 10 years ago we were worth £63m.

What justification is there to say anyonewould pay £300m?

Less than ten years ago we were sharing television revenue of approximately £1.6bn. Assuming we stay up we'd be sharing television revenue of just over £5bn.

In terms of the income that the club would generate, the amount would increase considerably so it's not unreasonable to assume that cost of the business that would generate that income should also increase.

You have to factor in debts and accumulated losses though, plus expenses and the chances of being around to enjoy the increased TV money over the next few years.  I don't think anybody would pay anything like £300m

I don't think they would either, but I'm pretty sure that if we were to be sold then our market value would be a significant increase on what was paid. I'd have said about £200m wouldn't be unfair.

Based on what?  There's a lot of finger-in-the-air guesswork going on here.

Unless we're looking at a multi-billionaire who just wants a plaything (and I doubt someone like that would pick a team from Birmingham) whoever were to invest would expect a return.

There are plenty of ways of valuing businesses and none of them suggest the Villa would be worth considerably more than we were 6 years ago.

The most common way is on a multiple of earnings.  Well we've made losses for every year Randy's owned us I think so that's not going to work.

Earning potential?  Whilst the new TV deal might look attractive, football clubs don't have a great record of keeping hold of such money.  The current TV deal is a world away from the deal back in the 80s but the club is in a much worse financial state than it was back then.  So what's the justification for saying the club will keep any more of this new deal?  The new Premier League financial rules allow for substantial losses so don't expect them to come in to it.

Value of the assets?  Well with £100m of debt sitting on the balance sheet and very little to show for it (ie the same ground, a slightly better training facility, a new pub, and....) the value of the club's net assets is probably as low as it's ever been.

There is just no justification to believe there are likely to be people willing to buy Randy out for what he's put in.  Unless he takes a big loss I don't think he's going anywhere.  Anything else is just wishful thinking.

[eamonn]

Depressing to read the accountants no-doubt accurate if prudent verdict.
 
Must take you to task on "slightly better training facility" though.  Bodymoor Heath is regarded now as one of the top training facilities in Europe. A significant improvement on the former centre.

[Ad@m]

Depressing to read the accountants no-doubt accurate if prudent verdict.
 
Must take you to task on "slightly better training facility" though.  Bodymoor Heath is regarded now as one of the top training facilities in Europe. A significant improvement on the former centre.

Indeed it is, but I think it cost £5m to build.  In the context of £200m going in to the club, the £5m training facility being all we have to show for it isn't great. 

And as sad as it is to say it, if you wanted a club with a state of the art training facility, as things stand an investor would be much better off buying the Baggies and then spending £5m recreating Bodymoor with them.

[Louzie0]

...an investor would be much better off buying the Baggies ...

Sorry Ad@m. Just, no!

[eamonn]

Yes, wash your mouth out man of Eve. There's some things that even financial scrutiny cannot reason.

[Ad@m]

...an investor would be much better off buying the Baggies ...

Sorry Ad@m. Just, no!

I know, I was just using an extreme to make a point.

But if you looked at this from a purely financial perspective and ignored the fact they're a bunch of 6-toed inbreds they are a sounder investment proposition at the moment.

That's how much of a shambles financially the last 6 years has been.

[Louzie0]

...an investor would be much better off buying the Baggies ...

Sorry Ad@m. Just, no!

I know, I was just using an extreme to make a point.

But if you looked at this from a purely financial perspective and ignored the fact they're a bunch of 6-toed inbreds they are a sounder investment proposition at the moment.

That's how much of a shambles financially the last 6 years has been.

God that's depressing!
Gather you are talking cumulatively - there have been some moments where it looked as if it was going to take off, as it were. Mainly earlier on, granted.
Also, hasn't the last year seen a fairly major chunk of debt disappear and overspending redressed? For Villa, I mean.
Even a tactically dodgy bottom 6 club with better financial standing, more support and more assets could be more attractive than one that goes boing every couple of years?!

[KRS]

Wheres this extra £200m been spent on then...ridiculous players wages, paying off managers contracts and releasing shit players signed for millions for free?!

[Chico Hamilton III]

Wheres this extra £200m been spent on then...ridiculous players wages, paying off managers contracts and releasing shit players signed for millions for free?!

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