The run-in to the end of the season

[SoccerHQ]

I think we'd stay up with 6 points and the momentum generated from Reading and QPR but think 4 points is more realistic and needed as is 4 from Fulham and Sunderland.

Think we'd do better in the liverpool and City home games than most expect, don't think two draws or even another win v Liverpool is out of the question.

Have to be realistic though, that was a big win for Wigan today, it's going to the final day isn't it? Going to be horrible.

[cdbearsfan]

Aston Villa v Man City DRAW
Reading v Aston Villa DRAW
Aston Villa v QPR LOSE
Aston Villa v Liverpool LOSE
Stoke v Aston Villa DRAW
Aston Villa v Fulham WIN
Man Utd v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v Sunderland WIN
Norwich v Aston Villa WIN
Aston Villa v Chelsea DRAW
Wigan v Aston Villa DRAW

Gives us 38 points, maybe enough, maybe not. A win rather than a draw against Wigan would probably do it.

[Nastylee]

Wigan really turn it on against those around them, that's us and reading they have thrashed away. Apart from Reading have we beaten a fellow struggler? Just think those home games against wigan, saints and Newcastle will come back to haunt us.

[SoccerHQ]

I really can't see us getting 38 points if we somehow lose at home to QPR (surely people must concede they're down in the position they're in?!) That really would be a death knell result to our season imo.

[Oscar Arce]

Aston Villa   v    Man City         Lose          24
Reading   v    Aston Villa         Lose          24
Aston Villa   v    QPR         Win          27
Aston Villa   v    Liverpool         Lose          27
Stoke   v    Aston Villa         Draw          28
Aston Villa   v    Fulham         Win          31
Man Utd   v    Aston Villa         Lose          31
Aston Villa   v    Sunderland         Lose          31
Norwich   v    Aston Villa         Draw          32
Aston Villa   v    Chelsea         Lose          32
Wigan   v    Aston Villa         Draw         33

33 points = relegated

[Irish villain]

Let's be honest, losing today and only adding a -1 to our goal difference wasn't the worst result. Similar against City wouldn't be either. had anybody chalked down these two games as yielding points? We all thought that anything gained from these two games would be a bonus and in the grand scheme of things not getting a hammering is a decent result goal difference wise.

Beat Reading and QPR and we will be on course. If we're on 30 points going into the Liverpool game I think we will stay up, if we're on 29 points after the Liverpool game I think we would be in with a decent shout of staying up. If we're on 27 points after Liverpool at home I think it's bye bye top flight as I wouldn't back us to come out fighting against tough sides like Stoke and Wigan.

Funny enough, I am finding it less stressful this season. Last year toughened me up no end. This time last year it looked like we wouldn't win again (and wouldn't have but for Weimann's last minute winner against Fulham). However, this season I kind of fancy us to get a few more wins (coupled with a few TSM style ground out draws) and we probably would be ok. So long as we get to mid 30s we will be in with a chance of staying up so have to try to stay positive and with the young group of players. Last year was a bit different. It was hard to get behind the likes of Hutton, Warnock, Collins and Dunne as we nose-dived.

[atticus snood]

Our end of season run in starts after Man City. Every game after that one gives us potential points. It all starts there...

[KevinGage]

Let's be honest, losing today and only adding a -1 to our goal difference wasn't the worst result. Similar against City wouldn't be either. had anybody chalked down these two games as yielding points? We all thought that anything gained from these two games would be a bonus and in the grand scheme of things not getting a hammering is a decent result goal difference wise.

Beat Reading and QPR and we will be on course. If we're on 30 points going into the Liverpool game I think we will stay up, if we're on 29 points after the Liverpool game I think we would be in with a decent shout of staying up. If we're on 27 points after Liverpool at home I think it's bye bye top flight as I wouldn't back us to come out fighting against tough sides like Stoke and Wigan.

Funny enough, I am finding it less stressful this season. Last year toughened me up no end. This time last year it looked like we wouldn't win again (and wouldn't have but for Weimann's last minute winner against Fulham). However, this season I kind of fancy us to get a few more wins (coupled with a few TSM style ground out draws) and we probably would be ok. So long as we get to mid 30s we will be in with a chance of staying up so have to try to stay positive and with the young group of players. Last year was a bit different. It was hard to get behind the likes of Hutton, Warnock, Collins and Dunne as we nose-dived.

I don't see this side grinding out draws at all.

We might draw a few between now and the end of the season, but they'll most likely be games we've dominated, or led until the latter stages and thrown away.

[SoccerHQ]

I think that's a fair point KG.

[PeterWithesShin]

Aston Villa v Man City DRAW
Reading v Aston Villa WIN
Aston Villa v QPR WIN
Aston Villa v Liverpool DRAW
Stoke v Aston Villa DRAW
Aston Villa v Fulham WIN
Man Utd v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v Sunderland WIN
Norwich v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v Chelsea LOSE
Wigan v Aston Villa WIN

[Ad@m]

Aston Villa v Man City DRAW
Reading v Aston Villa WIN
Aston Villa v QPR WIN
Aston Villa v Liverpool DRAW
Stoke v Aston Villa DRAW
Aston Villa v Fulham WIN
Man Utd v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v Sunderland WIN
Norwich v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v Chelsea LOSE
Wigan v Aston Villa WIN

I'll have some of whatever you're drinking!

18 points from a possible 33 - that sort of form over the course of the season so far would put us 6th.  Nothing I've seen of this team suggests they're remotely capable of that.

For what it's worth:

Aston Villa v Man City LOSE
Reading v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v QPR WIN
Aston Villa v Liverpool LOSE
Stoke v Aston Villa DRAW
Aston Villa v Fulham DRAW
Man Utd v Aston Villa LOSE
Aston Villa v Sunderland DRAW
Norwich v Aston Villa DRAW
Aston Villa v Chelsea LOSE
Wigan v Aston Villa LOSE

I'd have us finishing on 31 points.  The defeat to Wigan on the last day won't make any difference - just disappointing that Wigan, of all shitholes, will be our last sight of top flight football for a while!

[eamonn]

31 points? Not a chance. I'd be amazed if we only won one more game.
I'm taking our recent form to be from 46th minute onwards from the Newcastle game as the change in system at that point, putting Andi and Gabby out wide and Zog in the hole has given us far greater impetus. Defensively we're still shaky and therefore difficult to predict but i think our away form will save us. I tentatively proffer:



Aston Villa v Man City      LOSE
Reading v Aston Villa       WIN
Aston Villa v QPR             DRAW
Aston Villa v Liverpool     DRAW
Stoke v Aston Villa          DRAW
Aston Villa v Fulham        WIN
Man Utd v Aston Villa       LOSE
Aston Villa v Sunderland  DRAW*
Norwich v Aston Villa        WIN
Aston Villa v Chelsea        LOSE
Wigan v Aston Villa           DRAW

38 points and safety (probably at the expense of Wigan)

Also although Norwich's win today was a bit of a bummer as it stopped them being dragged into it, hopefully they'll go on a bit of a run now and be half-arsed (despite playing their old manager) by the time we meet.
Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if we got something against Chelsea if they are assured of Champs League and have an eye on a Wafer/FA Cup Final.

*Martin O'Neill will be fined for giving the Holte "the wankers" at the end of the game after a last minute Gardner equaliser

[tomd2103]

its going to the last weekend. I can smell it

I'd be inclined to take a winner takes all on the last day at Wigan at the moment.  A lot of twists and turns between now and then though.

[Karlos96]

its going to the last weekend. I can smell it

If it goes to the last day we will bottle it,  they are mentally weak and wouldn't be able to cope with that pressure.  Personally I think we will be down before that game anyway.

[russon]

These end of season fixtures give us the best possible chance. Home games v QPR, Fulham, Sunderland and away games at Reading, Norwich, Stoke & Wigan. Hells bells, if we can't muster the requisite points from those games and maybe a bonus point or two in the tougher fixtures (Man C & U, Liverpool & Chelsea) then the curtains deserve to be drawn on us.