How many points will keep us up?

[KevinGage]

The whole bottom half of the table is at risk. Probably only Reading are definitely down. Don't write QPR off yet, they have lots to do but probably the easiest fixtures of anyone. Like everyone else I relish Sunderland dropping into it but don't rule out West Ham , Norwich or Stoke being in the frame either - all are in poor form at the wrong time. A point next week against the scousers is very important to maintain momentum.

West Ham are, I think, safe now.  They might lose one or two on the bounce and struggle to score occasionally, but I'd say they have at least two more victories in them. 

Stoke are definitely involved. 

There seems to be a groundswell of ill feeling against Pulis from his own support now.  As limited and agricultural as their approach might be, they used to create chances.   When you're not even doing that anymore, it must be hard to stomach such turgid football.   They've spent quite a bit since being in the topflight too, something often overlooked.

Another win or two *should* see them safe, but their form since the turn of the year has been atrocious. 

We have four more potential six pointers, IMO.  Sunderland and Wigan being the obvious ones, but we have the capability to make life even worse for Naawich and Stoke too.

I'd say it's between worselves, Wigwam, Sunderland, Southampton, Norwich and Stoke for the last place. MON is taking pelters from his own supporters too, at present.  But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him pull off a shock result against Man U or Chelsea.

[Matt Collins]

I looked at historic league tables, and the 17th placed team finished on the following points over the last ten years:
37 / 40 / 35 / 35* / 36 / 38 / 38* / 34 / 39* / 44 (37.2 average)

Most of the time, teams have stayed up by 1 point or on goal difference. * shows where it was more comfortable.

So 40 points seems like it would definitely be safe. I'd be very pessimistic if I thought we were going to get anything less than 38.

So, 8-10 points more? Or 2-3 wins and some draws on top.

Who will those 2-3 wins come against? It's hard to be super confident about any game with this villa side.

I reckon we've good a reasonable chance (say 40-60%) of beating Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke and Fulham on any given day. I reckon we'll win at least one of them. But I think we probably need to win two and draw at least one of these games as a minimum to avoid a horrific experience on the last day of the season. I predict we'll beat Sunderland and I fancy us to win at Stoke. But draw or lose to Fulham and get a draw at Norwich.

I can't really see more than a point at most from our games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U unless there's a major surprise. They're all playing for things. Liverpool offers the best chance.
 

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[Steve R]

We've just taken 10 points from our last six games. The next six as a group are if anything easier fixtures.

I know these things never work out that way, but where we are at the moment, buoyant and in our best form of the season, we are just as likely to take more than 10 from the next six as less.

Away : Everton, Arsenal, Reading (next up : Stoke, Manu and Norwich)
Home : West ham, Newcastle, QPR (next up :  L'pool, Fulham, S'land)

[N'ZMAV]

We'll smash Stoke.

[Matt Collins]

True. I see we're 5th in the form table over the last 6 games. But we've been here before before completely falling apart around Christmas.

Of the teams currently above 15th, we've only managed two league wins all season (swansea and Liverpool). The other wins have come against reading, QPR, West Ham at home, plus sunderland and reading away.

Of our remaining fixtures, only Sunderland and Wigan are bottom 6 sides. Though you could argue Stoke are there in form terms and Norwich aren't far off.

The more I think about it, the more nervous I get!

[Matt Collins]

We've just taken 10 points from our last six games. The next six as a group are if anything easier fixtures.

I know these things never work out that way, but where we are at the moment, buoyant and in our best form of the season, we are just as likely to take more than 10 from the next six as less.

Away : Everton, Arsenal, Reading (next up : Stoke, Manu and Norwich)
Home : West ham, Newcastle, QPR (next up :  L'pool, Fulham, S'land)

I don't agree the next 6 games are easier. Before the previous 6, I'd have said West Ham, Reading and QPR looked very winnable. We normally draw at Goodison. I hoped we'd get a draw at least v Newcastle and you obviously expect to lose at the Emirates, but we often get a good result there.

The next 6 - I think Man U is a write off. I'm not sure any are of the 'expect to win' variety. I think Liverpool and Fulham, given recent good form for the most part, are very tough matches.

We're definitely capable of winning at Stoke or Norwich. We've scored at least two away goals in most of our recent away matches (4 out of the last 5 I think). And those sides struggle to score. So I'm quietly optimistic about both matches. But they're both eminently losable too. I wouldn't say I was counting on winning these ones.

[PeterWithesShin]

The last 6 were Everton (a) WH (h) Arse (a) Man C (h) Reading (a) QPR (h). I think 10 points from that lot would be more than respectable even if we were a lot higher in the league.

[Des Little]

We are hitting form at exactly the right time, unlike the Stokes, Mackems, Spammers of this world. I know which group I'd rather be in.

[KRS]

If we right off the games against Man Utd and Chelski, then we realistically need to be getting at least 4pts from the next 3 games and 4pts from Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan...it really could go down to the wire with several teams trying to avoid relegation on the last day of the season.

[TonyD]

If you take Reading and QPR as gonnas, then the last place will be one of about 5 teams - all of which a pretty capable of picking up points.  I think we are looking the pick of those teams at the moment and will stay up.  But I think the magic number will be 39 points.

[Brend'Watkins]

The key is how we do against Sunderland.  We are on paper the easier of their upcoming fixtures, another 6 pointer in the offing I feel.

Having said that, a lot depends on how Wigan fare in the cup should they reach the final and how their players approach league games nearing a possible final.  It could be awkard for them. 

[Ads]

By the time we play Sunderland, chances are that we will be above them, with them on the back of several beatings.

[peter w]

The key isn't how we play against anybody but the next game. We have to play the team and not the occasion. liverpool will be an important ganme because its how we perform that will be important. We could start and end the game in the bottom 3 and if we start allowing the rpessure to get to us then we'll see more poor performances. Although the 2 nd half was good against QPR we were poor for most of the first half, very poor after they equalised and then it was backs to the wall.

This is going to be every game where we have our noses in front and it is a huge ask to expect the level of performance in the 2nd half to be produced week in week out when the pressure is on. Simply, I don't think we're good enough to do that. So, its going to be fingerbitingly bad. I feel it won't even go to the Wigan game.

[Brend'Watkins]

By the time we play Sunderland, chances are that we will be above them, with them on the back of several beatings.

Maybe so but they will look at our fixture as where they have a good chance of getting a result.  They might well be shot by then but if they are targeting 7 or 8  more points to beat the drop our game will be seen as crucial in getting them.

[Ads]

They will definitely be targetting us, but then they would have targetted Norwich, QPR and Reading too.

I think if they get a good kicking in their next three, then they will be in huge trouble, with confidence completely gone.