I think we'll be two wickets down by close of play. I think the decision to throw Woakes and Kerrigan in shows that mentally the team aren't taking this test match too seriously - I think that will translate in to a poor batting display (like it arguably translated in to a poor bowling display).
To be fair I thought Anderson bowled exceptionally well considering the conditions. Broad and Swann have done all right also.
What doesn't help on an ideal batting deck is having 40% of your bowling attack clearly not good enough for international cricket. I hate to say it as a big bears fan, but Woakes just isn't good enough. I know its two different forms of the game, but his performances in the ODI's have been so far below an acceptable standard that it should be clear to the selectors he isn't of the quality required.
As far as the batting goes it will all depend on mindset. If they are willing to knuckle down and treat the innings with the usual test match focus, then theres no reason why a no of the players can't get big scores. Start being complacent with the series won and then they may get beat.
They should take it seriously, individual test matches count towards the rankings