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Author Topic: The run-in II  (Read 19175 times)

Offline Rick_avfc

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #60 on: April 23, 2012, 10:50:19 AM »
I did the predictor and had us down to beat Bolton tomorrow and draw against Norwich (40 points).  Also had blackburn and bolton relegated.

Online Meanwood Villa

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #61 on: April 23, 2012, 10:52:10 AM »
Fair comment. just trying to point out there is a number of permutations, and we are not dust relying on QPR to win their games.

The vast majority of those permutations would see us safe, especially the more realistic ones.

Only if we get two morre points.

As I said, it's about being realistic.  We have a home game against Bolton where we're favourites, so if you try to look at it objectively you you'd fancy us for at least one of those points tomorrow night.  After that, we haven't lost 2 in a row all season, let alone 3.

We've lost twice in a row 3 times this season I can think of off the top of my head, Newcastle away, Citeh home. Liverpool home, Arsenal home. City away, Albion home.

Offline eastie

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #62 on: April 23, 2012, 11:01:46 AM »
We must avoid defeat tomorrow night , if we get a draw we may just scrape to safety on goal difference with 37 points- i do not see us beating bolton or taking any points from our last 3 games so lets hope we can escape and get rid of the clown in charge as this season has been an utter shambles!

Offline levico

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #63 on: April 23, 2012, 11:50:31 AM »
The very depressing thing is that even if we are relegated, there will not be a regime change.

Offline not3bad

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #64 on: April 23, 2012, 12:14:59 PM »
Bolton (H) D
West Brom (A) D
Spurs (H) D
Norwich (A) D

Offline not3bad

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #65 on: April 23, 2012, 12:16:05 PM »
Bolton (H) D
West Brom (A) D
Spurs (H) D
Norwich (A) D


Wouldn't be surprised if they're all 0-0.  Exciting stuff.

Offline eastie

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #66 on: April 23, 2012, 12:18:35 PM »
The very depressing thing is that even if we are relegated, there will not be a regime change.

Wouldnt bet on it!

Online Dave

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #67 on: April 23, 2012, 12:43:06 PM »
I'm sure it was Dave the Mod. (not Mr. Woodhall) who said at the start of the season he was going to put £10 on every Villa result to be a draw. If so, he's probably quids in, now!
I tempered it slightly to bet on heavy defeats as well.

Chelsea and Sunderland between them was about £150 profit.

Online Dave

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #68 on: April 23, 2012, 12:53:51 PM »
Quote
Liverpool (A) L DREW
Stoke City (H) D DREW
Man Utd (A) L LOST
Sunderland (H) L DREW
Bolton (H) D
West Brom (A) D
Spurs (H) D
Norwich (A) W

Revision:

Bolton (H) D
West Brom (A) L
Spurs (H) L
Norwich (A) D
A question: considering we are actually two points better off than you originally thought we would be, how does that tally with thinking we're now going to do much worse than you originally thought in the remaining games?

Surely logic would suggest that we're actually doing better than you were expecting and you should therefore be more positive about the games to come rather than less?

Offline Ads

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #69 on: April 23, 2012, 01:14:49 PM »
Bolton (H) W
West Brom (A) W
Spurs (H) D
Norwich (A) L

Offline VillaAlways

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #70 on: April 23, 2012, 01:20:34 PM »
DDLD

Offline bob

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #71 on: April 23, 2012, 01:24:04 PM »
D
L
W
W

Offline PaulTheVillan

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #72 on: April 23, 2012, 01:48:52 PM »
Bolton (H) W
West Brom (A) D
Spurs (H) L
Norwich (A) D

Offline Legion

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #73 on: April 23, 2012, 03:42:04 PM »
Quote
Liverpool (A) L DREW
Stoke City (H) D DREW
Man Utd (A) L LOST
Sunderland (H) L DREW
Bolton (H) D
West Brom (A) D
Spurs (H) D
Norwich (A) W

Revision:

Bolton (H) D
West Brom (A) L
Spurs (H) L
Norwich (A) D
A question: considering we are actually two points better off than you originally thought we would be, how does that tally with thinking we're now going to do much worse than you originally thought in the remaining games?

Surely logic would suggest that we're actually doing better than you were expecting and you should therefore be more positive about the games to come rather than less?

True. Glass half-full syndrome. Surely we can/will do better than I hope...

Offline Steve R

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Re: The run-in II
« Reply #74 on: April 23, 2012, 06:45:41 PM »
I wouldn't like to guess individual scores but I think we'll get just two points from the four matches and go down.

It would take yet more exceptional results elsewhere for that to happen. At the very least QPR would need to win at either Chelsea or Man city, or Blackburn at both Chelsea and Spurs.

QPR wouldn't need to do anything. Instead Wigan would need to win 2 out of 3, and Bolton 3 out of 5. Both have easier run ins.

Which would see QPR and Blackburn down with Wolves?
Where are QPRs possible 5 points coming from or Blackburn's 8 (or 9 as 8 is impossible) in the scenario we get 38 points?
And presumably one of Wigans wins is against Blackburn as I dont imagine they'll beat Newcastle.

Fair comment. just trying to point out there is a number of permutations, and we are not dust relying on QPR to win their games. For the record, if we get two more points I think it is very unlikely we will go down. But I am also worried that if we lose against Bolton we will not get any more points. This manager has a record of relegating teams against all the odds.

Which is why I said 'at the least'. The most likely route to safety is QPR failing to get a win in either of their home games, and Blackburn failing to win both.

I can see Wigan beating Wolves and probably Blackburn too. They are unlikely to get much out of Newcastle.

Bolton have enough games against moderate opposition to do something, even if they seem to have had the stuffing knocked out of them lately with injuries and what happened to Muamba.

 


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