Summer Transfer Thread: Speculation, Lies, Absolute Cr*p and Bosman Rumours

[Monty]

Exactly. Just as picking someone on the basis of being good in a major tournament is a stupid idea, so is turning away from a target for having a poor tournament. In fact, I remember one manager (forget who) saying he hoped his targets all have rubbish tournaments to keep the price down!

So to sum up:

Player has good tournament = don't sign him

Player has bad tournament = sign him.  And in fact the worse he is, the better.

Pay no attention to such sophistry.  Vlaar looked all at sea during Euro 2012 in one of the worst Dutch teams for ages.  I'm perfectly willing to accept the possibility that he might very well do much better for us, but I find it hard to take his performances this summer as a recommendation.

Hilts, if you're going to accuse me of sophistry it would probably be best not to misrepresent what I've said with such reckless abandon. You leave yourself open to the charge of hypocrisy.

My point is that major tournaments are not a reliably large enough sample from which alone to make up your mind about a player. You need a larger sample. If you never thought someone was that great and they have a decent tournament, that should no more sway what you think about that player than if the reverse is true, ie Carroll having a better Euros than van Persie doesn't make the former the better player. The performance in the tournament is near enough irrelevant. All clear?

[pauliewalnuts]

Exactly. Just as picking someone on the basis of being good in a major tournament is a stupid idea, so is turning away from a target for having a poor tournament. In fact, I remember one manager (forget who) saying he hoped his targets all have rubbish tournaments to keep the price down!

So to sum up:

Player has good tournament = don't sign him

Player has bad tournament = sign him.  And in fact the worse he is, the better.

Pay no attention to such sophistry.  Vlaar looked all at sea during Euro 2012 in one of the worst Dutch teams for ages.  I'm perfectly willing to accept the possibility that he might very well do much better for us, but I find it hard to take his performances this summer as a recommendation.

Hilts, if you're going to accuse me of sophistry it would probably be best not to misrepresent what I've said with such reckless abandon. You leave yourself open to the charge of hypocrisy.

My point is that major tournaments are not a reliably large enough sample from which alone to make up your mind about a player. You need a larger sample. If you never thought someone was that great and they have a decent tournament, that should no more sway what you think about that player than if the reverse is true, ie Carroll having a better Euros than van Persie doesn't make the former the better player. The performance in the tournament is near enough irrelevant. All clear?

Maybe i am missing something here, but aren't you both actually saying the same thing?

[Monty]

Exactly. Just as picking someone on the basis of being good in a major tournament is a stupid idea, so is turning away from a target for having a poor tournament. In fact, I remember one manager (forget who) saying he hoped his targets all have rubbish tournaments to keep the price down!

So to sum up:

Player has good tournament = don't sign him

Player has bad tournament = sign him.  And in fact the worse he is, the better.

Pay no attention to such sophistry.  Vlaar looked all at sea during Euro 2012 in one of the worst Dutch teams for ages.  I'm perfectly willing to accept the possibility that he might very well do much better for us, but I find it hard to take his performances this summer as a recommendation.

Hilts, if you're going to accuse me of sophistry it would probably be best not to misrepresent what I've said with such reckless abandon. You leave yourself open to the charge of hypocrisy.

My point is that major tournaments are not a reliably large enough sample from which alone to make up your mind about a player. You need a larger sample. If you never thought someone was that great and they have a decent tournament, that should no more sway what you think about that player than if the reverse is true, ie Carroll having a better Euros than van Persie doesn't make the former the better player. The performance in the tournament is near enough irrelevant. All clear?

Maybe i am missing something here, but aren't you both actually saying the same thing?

We are. He just twisted my words into something stupid which he could call 'sophistry' and disagree with. I felt it had to be cleared up.

[villastikz]

Like Curcic and Milosevic?

Neither of them we're good enough for the EPL. Curcic was average at best and Milosevic was brought on the back of 2 good seasons in the Yugoslav league which isn't dissimilar to SPL where a couple clubs are well above the standard their rivals are and can make players look better than they are.

Was just responding to your suggestion that we sign one of N'Zogbia's mates. I think that was part of the rationale  behind the signing of Curcic.

Just think what we could have achieved if in 1996 Little had spent £4m on somebody other than Curcic and in '97 had spent £7m on somebody other than Collymore. It's amazing how a manager's career can unravel if a couple of big signings don't work out. Isn't there a quote in Dave's book from Allan Evans that we had 'spent enough but had bought the wrong players'.

We've had a few managers who haven't exactly got us value for money.

I was kind of taking the piss about N'zog because he's looked/acted like a miserable sod and froggie playmate might cheer him bloody up.

[godzvilla]

The 'V' in Dutch is pronounced as an 'F' isn't it? So it's Ron Flaar I believe!

Ron Atkinson was the last Ron wasn't he? Or was it that Norwegian centre half, Johnsen was it? Was he a Ron?

Remember the Centre Half who  used to play for Wolves & England..........Ron Vlaars ?..............I,ll get me coat .......Godzvilla!

[Concrete John]

I think the general rule of thumb is that you shouldn't sign a player based just on his form in a limited number of tournament games.  With the flipside of that being that you therefore shouldn't also rule one out if he had a stinker.

Proper scouting and knowing what you're buying is the key!

[eastie]

Has anymore been said regarding the vlaar deal or is it still being negotiated?

[hilts_coolerking]

Maybe i am missing something here, but aren't you both actually saying the same thing?

Not quite.  Monty appears to be suggesting that having a good tournament or a bad tournament has no bearing whatsoever on a player's quality.  I disagree.  In Vlaar's case he was dreadful during the Euros.  That doesn't in itself make him a dreadful player but to say it should be "near irrelevant" with regard to the decision to sign him, I'm not sure about that.  If he was 19, then maybe.  But the guy is 27 and he was all over the place.  I think that tells us something, even if it doesn't give the full picture.

As I said, it's entirely possible he may turn out to be a great signing for us and I hope he does.  But I think there's an element of

"Vlaar's a bit shit isn't he?"
VLAAR IN TALKS WITH VILLA
"The Euros don't mean anything."

If you're looking closely at a player and he goes and has a terrible tournament you're not doing your job properly if you don't at least stop and think about it.

[rutski]

The 'V' in Dutch is pronounced as an 'F' isn't it? So it's Ron Flaar I believe!

Ron Atkinson was the last Ron wasn't he? Or was it that Norwegian centre half, Johnsen was it? Was he a Ron?

Remember the Centre Half who  used to play for Wolves & England..........Ron Vlaars ?..............I,ll get me coat .......Godzvilla!

rafael fan de faart???

[john e]

just googled 'sophistry' and now know what it means

its an education in itself just coming on to the H+V pages

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Proper scouting and knowing what you're buying is the key!

I get the feeling from Lambert's comments just before he joined us, that he had several European targets but didn't have the funds to bring them in. We are probably seeing some of those players that he'd scouted last season, the prices certainly fit in with what you'd expect Norwich to be able to afford or at least target.

[Monty]

Maybe i am missing something here, but aren't you both actually saying the same thing?

Not quite.  Monty appears to be suggesting that having a good tournament or a bad tournament has no bearing whatsoever on a player's quality.  I disagree.  In Vlaar's case he was dreadful during the Euros.  That doesn't in itself make him a dreadful player but to say it should be "near irrelevant" with regard to the decision to sign him, I'm not sure about that.  If he was 19, then maybe.  But the guy is 27 and he was all over the place.  I think that tells us something, even if it doesn't give the full picture.

As I said, it's entirely possible he may turn out to be a great signing for us and I hope he does.  But I think there's an element of

"Vlaar's a bit shit isn't he?"
VLAAR IN TALKS WITH VILLA
"The Euros don't mean anything."

If you're looking closely at a player and he goes and has a terrible tournament you're not doing your job properly if you don't at least stop and think about it.

And van Persie is 28, he wasn't very good either. Rooney is 26, likewise. It is near irrelevant how they played in the Euros, however, in judging how good a player they are. Vlaar was awful at the Euros, but was excellent for Feyenoord last season and the year before last. I don't think that being good in Holland is in itself a barometer, but neither is being bad in a tournament. As John M said, you should have done your scouting and have enough knowledge so that a small sample doesn't have to influence your decision unduly - if you do let it, then you're not doing your job properly.

[nigel]

Like Curcic and Milosevic?

Neither of them we're good enough for the EPL. Curcic was average at best and Milosevic was brought on the back of 2 good seasons in the Yugoslav league which isn't dissimilar to SPL where a couple clubs are well above the standard their rivals are and can make players look better than they are.

what about a player that finished top scorer in La liga, would he be good enough? Milosevic did just that after he left us and went to zaragoza.

Beat me to it rutski.
Savo struggled to settle, but was just begining to develop a good partnership with Dwight. Then along come Collymore and upset the balance.

[Marlon From Bearwood]

In response to the post about Hutton a few pages back, it is true that he hasn't flown to the US today. Matt Kendrick has tweeted this and he's on the same flight as the team. Fingers crossed he's on his way out.

[hilts_coolerking]

And van Persie is 28, he wasn't very good either. Rooney is 26, likewise. It is near irrelevant how they played in the Euros, however, in judging how good a player they are. Vlaar was awful at the Euros, but was excellent for Feyenoord last season and the year before last. I don't think that being good in Holland is in itself a barometer, but neither is being bad in a tournament. As John M said, you should have done your scouting and have enough knowledge so that a small sample doesn't have to influence your decision unduly - if you do let it, then you're not doing your job properly.

Van Persie and Rooney are total red herrings; we know they can perform at Premier League and international level.  Vlaar we know much less about.  He's had good seasons in Holland, which is great, and gives us some indication.  But his performances at international level should very much be taken into account.  We're asking Vlaar to take a step up if he comes to Villa - not the same as the step up he takes when he plays for Holland, of course - but a step up nevertheless.  I think his Euro performances are a small but significant indicator in that regard, and certainly not irrelevant.