Relegation Possibility

[SoccerHQ]

Instead of betting us to go down, I'm having 2 quid on the likes of QPR, Blackburn and Wigan to win their games. Already made a tidy profit on QPR beating Liverpool and Arsenal recently and looking at some of the teams they have to play in their run ins, you'll get decent odds.

QPR at Old Trafford this weekend are 10-1 for example to win, 5-1 for a draw. Pretty similar for Wigan at Chelsea.

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

Any money you win by betting against the Villa is dirty, rotten, cursed and forever tainted.

Should you ever profit from such an evil act, I'd consider donating the ill-gotten gains to a worthwhile charity.

[Vanilla]

Any money you win by betting against the Villa is dirty, rotten, cursed and forever tainted.

Should you ever profit from such an evil act, I'd consider donating the ill-gotten gains to a worthwhile charity.

AVFC transfer fund!

[dave.woodhall]

I'll have it.

[Matt Collins]

Just did the BBC predictor. I had it pretty damn damn close. Basically, I thought that just one win, assuming we draw 2-3 more, would do it.

The problem is I can only see that win coming against Bolton.

I had us losing v Liverpool, man u, Sunderland and norwich. And drawing v Stoke and spurs at home and WBA away.

That had us staying up on 39 points, one ahead of QPR.

What a thoroughly shit season. Quite a bit worse than last year I reckon. At least then we played some passing football and scored a few goals. This year I reckon 75% of the games have been highly tedious.

[JUAN PABLO]

It is a shit season.

Posting on threads about can we stay up or are we going down. how bloody depressing .

The thing is , most of us at the beginning of the season could see this happening , that is why , we did not want him .

but the board thought they knew better .

[john e]

listning to Mcleish on talksport today he is going to turn this into a fight against relegation which he knows he has a good chance of winning, so do i.
at the season close he will turn round and say 'i kept us up' and act the big hero, Villa fans are playing into his hands by banging on about going down, its very unlikely and it will not make it a  good season if we do stay up

[Monty]

Just did the BBC predictor. I had it pretty damn damn close. Basically, I thought that just one win, assuming we draw 2-3 more, would do it.

The problem is I can only see that win coming against Bolton.

I had us losing v Liverpool, man u, Sunderland and norwich. And drawing v Stoke and spurs at home and WBA away.

That had us staying up on 39 points, one ahead of QPR.

What a thoroughly shit season. Quite a bit worse than last year I reckon. At least then we played some passing football and scored a few goals. This year I reckon 75% of the games have been highly tedious.

I just did that as well. Had Wolves, Wigan and Blackburn down, us 17th by one point, five points behind QPR and Bolton way up in 10th. Shows what I know.

[supertom]

Any money you win by betting against the Villa is dirty, rotten, cursed and forever tainted.

Should you ever profit from such an evil act, I'd consider donating the ill-gotten gains to a worthwhile charity.

If I do win (if you can call it that) the bet, I will donate it to Stan's charity of choice.

[Rip Van We Go Again]

'i kept us up' and act the big hero, Villa fans are playing into his hands by banging on about going down

Have to agree with this.
He'll give it the big 'un about how he saved us against all odds. Fans hatred, injuries, balancing the wages etc, etc.

[Mazrim]

I wouldn't be too sure about Villa fans letting him off the hook if we do stay up. I think only some unlikely transfer activity would stave off the shit coming his way. McLeish is as canny in his media presence as he is tactically. He has nowhere to hide and no grace to fall back on.

I expect ticket, commercial sales and the general mood and confidence around the club to be appalling in the summer if McLeish is not replaced. This will hit Villa hard financially and would have to be addressed. They have to act.
No matter how this season pans out from here, this season has been unacceptable.

How many fans could tolerate another season of this? If the club really have no connection to or understanding of the fans they will allow this situation to continue. Unfortunately, I have very little faith in the board to do what is required and I'm an optimist. Where is the leadership? The direction? The knowledge? How could they have appointed this man against all reason?
How can they listen to or read his dour defeatist and oft delusional musings and not realise the effect its having on the club? And what the fuck did they expect in the first place?

[NeilH]

I expect ticket, commercial sales and the general mood and confidence around the club to be appalling in the summer if McLeish is not replaced. This will hit Villa hard financially and would have to be addressed.

A lot has been said about calamitous season ticket sales and that the club must act to prevent this, but let’s say for argument sake for lose 7000 season ticket holders going into next season, that’s a drop in revenue of approx £3,1M. If we sell one of our £60K p/w earners and don’t replace him, we save approx £3,1M and thus negate the cost of lost season tickets.

The same Noddy maths can be applied to ‘at the gate’ sales. Let’s say that we drop approx 5,000 per match on individual tickets sold. Over the season that would pan out to approx £5M lost revenue. If we sell one of our £70K p/w week earners, we save approx £3,6M and thus take a loss of only £1,4M...... As you can imagine, you only have to get a couple more big earners off the books and not replace them and  we’ve broken even.

Now I know that this is pretty basic stuff, but it does go to highlight, that IF the only focus of the club is to reduce cost, then they can more than afford a calamitous drop in supporters turning up at the stadium whilst still ticking over.

[JUAN PABLO]

what was it on Saturday . 34k  against Chelski plus with people going to support petrov etc . That is pretty poor , the fans are starting to protest by not going .



I had a horrible thought late last night . Villa down , Small Heath up .  FFS !!!!!  please no

[Risso]

I expect ticket, commercial sales and the general mood and confidence around the club to be appalling in the summer if McLeish is not replaced. This will hit Villa hard financially and would have to be addressed.

A lot has been said about calamitous season ticket sales and that the club must act to prevent this, but let’s say for argument sake for lose 7000 season ticket holders going into next season, that’s a drop in revenue of approx £3,1M. If we sell one of our £60K p/w earners and don’t replace him, we save approx £3,1M and thus negate the cost of lost season tickets.

The same Noddy maths can be applied to ‘at the gate’ sales. Let’s say that we drop approx 5,000 per match on individual tickets sold. Over the season that would pan out to approx £5M lost revenue. If we sell one of our £70K p/w week earners, we save approx £3,6M and thus take a loss of only £1,4M...... As you can imagine, you only have to get a couple more big earners off the books and not replace them and  we’ve broken even.

Now I know that this is pretty basic stuff, but it does go to highlight, that IF the only focus of the club is to reduce cost, then they can more than afford a calamitous drop in supporters turning up at the stadium whilst still ticking over.

Neil, that overlooks the fact that there's a huge deficit in he accounts that needs to be turned round, and cutting costs is only one half of the equation.  There's no point in cutting them if income drops off as well.  We undoubtedly needed to cut costs, but we need income to rise as well.

[NeilH]

I expect ticket, commercial sales and the general mood and confidence around the club to be appalling in the summer if McLeish is not replaced. This will hit Villa hard financially and would have to be addressed.

A lot has been said about calamitous season ticket sales and that the club must act to prevent this, but let’s say for argument sake for lose 7000 season ticket holders going into next season, that’s a drop in revenue of approx £3,1M. If we sell one of our £60K p/w earners and don’t replace him, we save approx £3,1M and thus negate the cost of lost season tickets.

The same Noddy maths can be applied to ‘at the gate’ sales. Let’s say that we drop approx 5,000 per match on individual tickets sold. Over the season that would pan out to approx £5M lost revenue. If we sell one of our £70K p/w week earners, we save approx £3,6M and thus take a loss of only £1,4M...... As you can imagine, you only have to get a couple more big earners off the books and not replace them and  we’ve broken even.

Now I know that this is pretty basic stuff, but it does go to highlight, that IF the only focus of the club is to reduce cost, then they can more than afford a calamitous drop in supporters turning up at the stadium whilst still ticking over.

Neil, that overlooks the fact that there's a huge deficit in he accounts that needs to be turned round, and cutting costs is only one half of the equation.  There's no point in cutting them if income drops off as well.  We undoubtedly needed to cut costs, but we need income to rise as well.

I appreciate that my very basic calculations hardly explain the complex nature of our accounts, but it does demonstrate that a large drop in season ticket sales could be absorbed if enough high earners are shifted off the books. In fact if we culled enough of them and sold Bent we would go a long way to offsetting the mess we are in......... I’m in no way agreeing, it’s just being purely subjective.

On the other hand, if we sacked McLeish it would cost us significantly in compensation with little prospect that our income would further be enhanced.