Relegation Possibility

[MarkM]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May.

How on earth are you getting 50%?

The bookies think there is a one in ten chance of us going down, which is probably about right. They think there is a one in three chance of them coming up.

Yes but with all fractions [and maths stuff like that] you have to look for the common denominator.

In the case of Villa and SHA our common denominator is Alex McL.

So last season they had him and went down, we didnt have him and stayed up

This season They dont have him and will more than likely come up, we have him and........

[Hoppo]

Irish Villan I started going down reguarly in 87 when we got relegated that was on a par with this season. Following season had time of my life. Villa were hard to beat and had a desire through the team. Great times.. Dont fancy that trip to Charlton again though.

[maidstonevillain]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May.

How on earth are you getting 50%?

The bookies think there is a one in ten chance of us going down, which is probably about right.

I think most posters on this forum will agree that those 10 to 1 odds are exceptionally generous. I am now erring towards 2 to 1 or 3 to 1.

But I agree the 50% figure is a bit far-fetched.

[Irish villain]

Thanks guys, I guess it will always be our club and I for one will be there, any chance I get, no matter how bad it gets.

Darkness always comes before the dawn. UTV.

[Le Lapin]

Thinks about it guys, if we stay up we'll have something to celebrate this season.......we don't get to celebrate very often anymore.....
We'd better strap ourselves in for a rollercoaster ride, because this is going to be a close one....the end of the 1994-1995 season springs to mind....hopefully we have the same outcome....

[pauliewalnuts]

ts.

Darkness always comes before the dawn.

That line was used on Mad Men last night.

[Irish villain]

ts.

Darkness always comes before the dawn.

That line was used on Mad Men last night.

I've never managed to sit down to watch an episode....they obviously have good writers though.

[MarkM]

ts.

Darkness always comes before the dawn.

That line was used on Mad Men last night.

I've never managed to sit down to watch an episode....they obviously have good writers though.

Your getting a bit too close the Wolverhampton motto thing they have!

[CJ]

Thinks about it guys, if we stay up we'll have something to celebrate this season.......we don't get to celebrate very often anymore.....
We'd better strap ourselves in for a rollercoaster ride, because this is going to be a close one....the end of the 1994-1995 season springs to mind....hopefully we have the same outcome....

Was that when we needed a point away at Norwich to guarantee staying up?

*Gulp*

[dave.woodhall]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May.

How on earth are you getting 50%?

The bookies think there is a one in ten chance of us going down, which is probably about right.

I think most posters on this forum will agree that those 10 to 1 odds are exceptionally generous. I am now erring towards 2 to 1 or 3 to 1.

But I agree the 50% figure is a bit far-fetched.

The only time in history bookies give generous odds and they just happen to be now. There's a coincidence.

[villasjf]

Thinks about it guys, if we stay up we'll have something to celebrate this season.......we don't get to celebrate very often anymore.....
We'd better strap ourselves in for a rollercoaster ride, because this is going to be a close one....the end of the 1994-1995 season springs to mind....hopefully we have the same outcome....

Was that when we needed a point away at Norwich to guarantee staying up?

*Gulp*

I have heard that Norwich will be wearing somberos and flip flops for this one so we may get a draw.

[ozzjim]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May.

How on earth are you getting 50%?

The bookies think there is a one in ten chance of us going down, which is probably about right.

I think most posters on this forum will agree that those 10 to 1 odds are exceptionally generous. I am now erring towards 2 to 1 or 3 to 1.

But I agree the 50% figure is a bit far-fetched.

The only time in history bookies give generous odds and they just happen to be now. There's a coincidence.

False sense of security Dave. I wonder what the odds were for Newcastle a couple of years back. I have had a tenner, at least I get something out of it if he does sink us.

[VillaAlways]

I've never placed a bet in my life but I'm placing a bet on us going down. Im that confident

[pauliewalnuts]

The lowest I can see is 9/1. The highest 119/10.

Interesting looking at the trends, though.

Looking at bet365's price history for us going down you see this:

March 18th: 100/1
March 20th: 66/1
March 24th: 40/1
March 25th: 25/1
March 27th: 14/1
March 30th: 16/1
April 2: 21/1
Now: 11/1

That price is basically just reflecting their risk at the moment, so it's ultimately about where the money they take on this market is going.

It's a pretty grim indicator of where the momentum is.

[Risso]

I wonder what price you'd have go on Blues going down when they were five points clear of trouble last season?