Relegation Possibility

[Lizz]

I think/hope the win will come where we least expect it.

[Ian.]

Form can just change. QPR were absolutely dreadful up until 2 weeks ago. They have been the worst team I have seen this season not including Wolves since sacking MM.

[hawkeye]

I think/hope the win will come where we least expect it.

we are that desperate we would take any win any where and the more games that pass without that win the more desperate the situation becomes and then anything can happen. We have Mcleish in charge.

[Fergal]

COPIED AND PASTED FROM MY POST IN ONE OF THE McLEISH THREADS AS IT'S MORE APPROPRIATE HERE:

You can drop down that statto.com table to get the position exactly 1 year ago.  At that point, Small Heath were above us, and things were a lot tighter:

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2010-2011/table/2011-04-03

Rationally, we shouldn't go down - for that to happen it would need three of the five teams currently below us to overtake us (and assuming we don't also overtake West Brom).

Wolves would have to make up 11 points AND a 26 goal difference - the equivalent of 4 more wins than us.
QPR, Blackburn and Wigan have to make up 5 points + significantly worse goal differences  - the equivalent of 2 more wins than us.

All of the above have only 7 games left.

Bolton have to make up 4 points AND a goal difference of 15.  We also play them at Villa Park later this month.

So I'd assume Wolves can't catch us - if we win just once, they have to win 5/7.  If we win twice, they have to win 6/7.

QPR's run-in is tough, but no tougher than ours.  They have winnable home games against Swansea and Stoke, and have shown they can raise their game.  But I'd say it would be hard for them to win 4/7 games.  So we'd need to win 2 to stay ahead of them.

Blackburn have an easier run-in - so there's an outside chance that they could win 4/7 - though one match is against Wigan.

Wigan's next 3 are horrendous - Chelsea (a), Man U (h), Arsenal (a) - and I hope that kills them off - but their end of season is a lot easier, but I think it's just about possible with a foul wind behind them they could get 4 wins from Fulham (a), Newcastle (h), Blackburn (a), Wolves (h).  Even then, we'd only need 2 wins and a draw.

That leaves Bolton - they have the easiest run-in of the lot - and I suspect they'll overhaul us.

So in summary - I think we need 2 wins and not take a 6 or 7 goal hammering to stay up.

So a 94th minute Heskey winner at Norwich to keep us up on goal difference is my prediction.

That post shows how desperate we have become.  Randy needs to grow a pair and sack AM or we will be here next year, this manager has form...

[hawkeye]

Fergal my worrie is that we wont be here next season.

[Fergal]

Fergal my worrie is that we wont be here next season.

By here you mean the Prem?  Randy must know we stand a chance of going down, why do you think the season tickets went on sale so early?

[Irish villain]

Fergal my worrie is that we wont be here next season.

This. I actually have a few tears in my eyes tonight. I'm 25, following villa since about '93. This is the most hopeless situation I've gone through as a villa fan.

[hawkeye]

Fergal my worrie is that we wont be here next season.

This. I actually have a few tears in my eyes tonight. I'm 25, following villa since about '93. This is the most hopeless situation I've gone through as a villa fan.

Cheer up mate, we will rise again.

[Fergal]

Fergal my worrie is that we wont be here next season.

This. I actually have a few tears in my eyes tonight. I'm 25, following villa since about '93. This is the most hopeless situation I've gone through as a villa fan.

The frustrating thing is how close we came to cracking the top 4.  If we had someone who understood that paying Heskey 60K a week was sheer fucking madness we would still be up there...

[levico]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May. Takes me back to the bad old days of the early 1970s. When will this nightmare end?

[David_Nab]

Wigan and Qpr need 2 more wins that us ...well they both did that in the last games whilst we lost and conceded 7 goals ! Those 5 points are nothing when
1) there is 21 to play for
2) we are only just above Wolves in the form table.

With the injuries we have and petrov ill I don't see a side who can stop concedeing goals and one that doesn't have many goals in them .Our best hope to stay up is that we manage at least 1 win and a few drawers but we are relying a lot on the teams below right now.If we go into the last game needing a win I see us going down.

[Mister E]

Takes me back to the bad old days of the early 1970s. When will this nightmare end?

That was no way as bad! - the difference between 1st and 2nd / 2nd and 3rd divisions in financial terms was much smaller; very little TV coverage; no Internet; etc.
The drop now is huge!

[Mister E]

we are relying a lot on the teams below right now.If we go into the last game needing a win I see us going down.

Yep, the momentum is definitely with other clubs and I can see Hughes, Coyle and Kean being able to galvanise their players more efffectively than Our Man.
Squeaky-bum time to the power of 'n'.

[Dave]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May.

How on earth are you getting 50%?

The bookies think there is a one in ten chance of us going down, which is probably about right. They think there is a one in three chance of them coming up.

[Irish villain]

With the increasing possibility of relegation comes another spectre - the return to the PL of SHA. There's probably a 50% chance that we may exchange divisions in May. Takes me back to the bad old days of the early 1970s. When will this nightmare end?

Bright future eh.