COPIED AND PASTED FROM MY POST IN ONE OF THE McLEISH THREADS AS IT'S MORE APPROPRIATE HERE:
You can drop down that statto.com table to get the position exactly 1 year ago. At that point, Small Heath were above us, and things were a lot tighter:
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2010-2011/table/2011-04-03Rationally, we shouldn't go down - for that to happen it would need three of the five teams currently below us to overtake us (and assuming we don't also overtake West Brom).
Wolves would have to make up 11 points AND a 26 goal difference - the equivalent of 4 more wins than us.
QPR, Blackburn and Wigan have to make up 5 points + significantly worse goal differences - the equivalent of 2 more wins than us.
All of the above have only 7 games left.
Bolton have to make up 4 points AND a goal difference of 15. We also play them at Villa Park later this month.
So I'd assume Wolves can't catch us - if we win just once, they have to win 5/7. If we win twice, they have to win 6/7.
QPR's run-in is tough, but no tougher than ours. They have winnable home games against Swansea and Stoke, and have shown they can raise their game. But I'd say it would be hard for them to win 4/7 games. So we'd need to win 2 to stay ahead of them.
Blackburn have an easier run-in - so there's an outside chance that they could win 4/7 - though one match is against Wigan.
Wigan's next 3 are horrendous - Chelsea (a), Man U (h), Arsenal (a) - and I hope that kills them off - but their end of season is a lot easier, but I think it's just about possible with a foul wind behind them they could get 4 wins from Fulham (a), Newcastle (h), Blackburn (a), Wolves (h). Even then, we'd only need 2 wins and a draw.
That leaves Bolton - they have the easiest run-in of the lot - and I suspect they'll overhaul us.
So in summary - I think we need 2 wins and not take a 6 or 7 goal hammering to stay up.
So a 94th minute Heskey winner at Norwich to keep us up on goal difference is my prediction.
