January Transfer Speculation (or lack of) Thread

[Greg N'Ash]

he's yer typical longball forward is Carroll. You can imagine MON buying him let alone AM. Lerner and AM would have to be brave to sanction Bent's sale as it could turn nasty very quickly if we continued to struggle in the new year. I can't see them risking it.

[Shrek]

I can Greg, Randy is all about the money now.

[Villanation]

http://www.clickliverpool.com/sport/liverpool-fc/1215036-liverpool-fc-make-enquiry-for-aston-villa-striker-darren-bent.html

[KevinGage]

So what's that us down to 'only' £58million a year or so?

What is Delloit's target % of wages vs turnover?  50%?
That would mean we need a turnover of 116m whereas I think the last reported turnover was 84m.

So we just need to double our turnover and we'll be fine!

Thing is, what should a squad of 25 be paid?  If you take it as your 3 top boys are on £80k, the next level is 4 players on £60k, then the remainder of the first 11 4 on £50k.  You need to have a decent squad, so your top 3 reserves are on a par with the first team at £50k, with the rest of your usual bench averaging £35k.  After that, you'll be talking about cheap fioreigners and emerging kids at around £20k average for 7 players.

Does that sound reasonable for a non CL club who are trying to attain top 6 status?  Well, thats a total of £57,720,000 per year, with an average first team wage of £61k and squad average £44,400 per week.

So if we want to be that sort of side, and folow the 50% rule, then turnover should be £115,440,000, which is a 37% increase from where we are now.

If I'm honest I'm not sure what type of point I'm making here, other than these are probably the maths Randy & Co have been doing.

Or if we look at it the other way round, and wee what a £84m turnover can get us?  Again on the 50% basis we're looking at £42m, so if I use the same scale as above we'd be looking at a top earner of £58,212, with the first team and squad averages £44,387 and 332,308 respectively.  And that's firm mid table territory.   

You raise some good points John, but I'm kinda with Hartman_1982 on this one.

We couldn't have a whole host of reserves on circa 35/40k per week. 

The challenge for a club in our position -that is any club not receiving CL money/ being bankrollled by a Sheik-  is to get a level of performance from the overall squad that actually exceeds the expectations one might have based on wages alone.

The way to do this (if at all possible) is to have a hungry squad, made up of your top players on premium wages, young players delivering performances way beyond their pay packet and sourcing the likes of a Assou Ekotto, a Rodallega or a Diame early, so you at least get 2/3 years out of them before either paying them a wage more in keeping with your better players, or selling them at profit.  Easier said than done, I know.   

We know the alternative approach- throwing big wages at established (but pretty ordinary) players and regularly not playing 5/6 of them definitely does not work, and doesn't make for a competitive squad. It just leads to players getting comfortable not playing and pocketing wages for very little return, or players that need big settlements if/when we finally can ship them out.

[SoccerHQ]

Does anyone have any idea of how much we have reduced the wage bill per week, by?
Who are still the high earners ?  Heskey, Beye, Collins, Dunne, Petrov, Warnock & BENT?

OK - lets try and work this out starting from last summer when Milner went and excluding loans:-

Out
Milner - £60k
Shorey - £40k
NRC - £50k
Downing - £60k
A Young - £60k
Davies - £40k
Sidwell - £50k
Freidel - £50k
L Young - £50k
Have I forgotten anyone?
Total - £450k a week

In
Ireland - £60k (heard he acceopted Milner's wages)
Bent - £80k
Hutton - £40k
Given - £60k
N'Zogbia - £60k
Total - £240k

So I make it an almost £11m a year saving from where we were during our wages height under MON

Carew who I'd say would be on 50k a week.

Also remember the likes of Salifou, Osbourne and Pires were on 10k or above.

Don't forget we're also paying Jenas's wages for the rest of te season although you can counter that with letting Makoun going out on loan.

To me we've cut the wage bill enough and next summer, Beye, Heskey and Cuellar will be leaving so that will be another 140k a week saved. With probably an experience player or two leaving that will be another 10m a season saved.

To me that's enough we can't cut anymore otherwise I think we'll be relegated next season.

[Steve kirk]

I think if Bent was to leave in January we would be very close to relegation this season, although he has not been at his best recently he will be the key player in the vital home games against Swansea, Qpr, Bolton, Fulham and Sunderland, I am sure in those games and others he will get us vital goals to keep us in the division, it would be madness to sell when we are so vulnerable.     

[SoccerHQ]

Does anyone have any idea of how much we have reduced the wage bill per week, by?
Who are still the high earners ?  Heskey, Beye, Collins, Dunne, Petrov, Warnock & BENT?

OK - lets try and work this out starting from last summer when Milner went and excluding loans:-

Out
Milner - £60k
Shorey - £40k
NRC - £50k
Downing - £60k
A Young - £60k
Davies - £40k
Sidwell - £50k
Freidel - £50k
L Young - £50k
Have I forgotten anyone?
Total - £450k a week

In
Ireland - £60k (heard he acceopted Milner's wages)
Bent - £80k
Hutton - £40k
Given - £60k
N'Zogbia - £60k
Total - £240k

So I make it an almost £11m a year saving from where we were during our wages height under MON

It is rumoured that Bent is on alot more that £80k per week.  More like £110k p/w plus bonuses.

The problem with exercises like this is that you miss all the players who have been given new & improved contracts. We've several who will have stepped up from youth team money to first team money over the last year (Bannan, Herd etc).

Maybe but they're only minimal wages increases, I highly doubt after 5 or so prem games Herd has gone from earning 5k a week to 30k a week do you?

5k to 10k or thereabouts is still less than half a million a year so it's certainly not hurting the club as much as Heskey bleeding us dry on 60k a week.

[Shrek]

Hopefully spurs get Tevez then we can have Defoe.

[Greg N'Ash]

we've got a smaller squad than DOL's time. By next summer with the departure of Petrov and co. it won't be fit for purpose. It barely is now. This isn't about trimming the fat off the squad - it's about an owner who can no longer afford to run a football club

[Villanation]

Hopefully spurs get Tevez then we can have Defoe.

Tevez is a whatever and whoever job, however Defoe would be a good signing and if Bent moved on, which has to be said wouldn't be the end of the world, Defoe would be a better option than Carrol ( mentioned as a swap) which to me is akin to the lost city of Atlantis in term of myth when it comes to him being listed as a top striker

[Clampy]

I'd swap Bent for Andy Carroll and Jon Jo Shelvy all day long, otherwise jog on Liverpoo.

Since when has Shelvy been the next big thing?

[Steve kirk]

Greg is spot on next season regarding the squad and club in general is a massive worry, as long as Bent stays post Jan we will be ok for this season but come the start of next season I dread to think about the state we will be in.   

[Vanilla]

Hopefully spurs get Tevez then we can have Defoe.

Tevez is a whatever and whoever job, however Defoe would be a good signing and if Bent moved on, which has to be said wouldn't be the end of the world, Defoe would be a better option than Carrol ( mentioned as a swap) which to me is akin to the lost city of Atlantis in term of myth when it comes to him being listed as a top striker

Defoe might be worth considering. But taking into account our route one approach and Defoe's deficiency in the height department, his move might prove as pointless as our last two acquisitions from Spuds.

[Villanation]

Greg is spot on next season regarding the squad and club in general is a massive worry, as long as Bent stays post Jan we will be ok for this season but come the start of next season I dread to think about the state we will be in.

We have to buy in January, in other words now, to be ready for the turnaround in the summer, all we can then hope for if we do this is using this season to bed players in, and start to see how we are going to shape up before getting into the summer transfer window.

We need to spend min 20ML in the next few weeks and a further 30 in the summer to give us a decent side.

Problem is who will trust AM to waist, or not, that kind of money that the club needs to spend but probably RL won't have it again to spend if he does sanction this, this is the catch 22.

[Greg N'Ash]

tend to agree. Defoe is a goal poacher like Bent and they don't suit AM's game. No surprise Bent has gone completely to pot since AM came in and Gabby has gone the other way. Defoe would be a waste of money and Levy would screw every last penny out of a negotiating amateurs like our board