The Dreaded Drop: A Bookmaker's View

[cdbearsfan]

So I was right, they have been relegated. I got the decade wrong though.

[eastie]

Of all the teams involved the only one I'd put money on to drop would be Wigan, we really need to beat Blackburn and then we can breathe a little easier, they all seem to be picking up unlikely points and I reckon it will be close till the last game , hopefully we will be away from danger before then but it really is so tight down there.

[pauliewalnuts]

My mates an Albion fan and he is convinced their run in will fuck it up for them.  Wolves have a decent run in and I don't think ours is too bad but we must win our home games especially against the Dog heads

Wolves have the issue that they raise their game against the better teams, but then look shite against the mediocre ones.

[ktvillan]

The current form/momentum thing is important and since our debacle at Eastlands wé've only lost to Sunderland with 10 men and Man Yoo away.  Problem is too many draws means we havn't pulled away like we should have.

40 may just be enough.  For 18th placed Wigan to get 39 they would need  3 wins and 3 draws from 11 games left, or 4 wins.  That's more than the point per game they've managed so far.    And they still have to play Man Yoo, Citeh, Spurs and Chelsea.  I think I'm having a VillaDawg attack.

[Risso]

My mates an Albion fan and he is convinced their run in will fuck it up for them.  Wolves have a decent run in and I don't think ours is too bad but we must win our home games especially against the Dog heads

Wolves have the issue that they raise their game against the better teams, but then look shite against the mediocre ones.

Indeed.  They're bottom of the "points gained against bottoom half teams" league, yet top 10 against the top half.  We're almost the exact opposite, against the bottom half we're 6th, but against the top half we're 19th.

[cdbearsfan]

We're all turning into VillaDawg!

By calculating our points-per-game, extrapalating our current form, and re-perambulating our run-in based on successful passes in the attacking quadrant vs triumphant tackles in the defensive zone, I reckon we should finish on 42.4 points, which should be enough to stay up by Pi points.

[villa `cross the mersey]

No worries everyone - we are in 8th place in the current form league

[damon loves JT]

No worries everyone - we are in 8th place in the current form league

if we get up to fourth, do we get into the current form champions' league?

[cdbearsfan]

Yes.

Can't wait to get knocked out by Rapid Vienna in the Current Form Champions League Play-Offs.

[Pete3206]

We won't go down. We won't.

[hawkeye]

we are one game away from a crisis, win on saturday and we are miles away, draw and we are nervous, lose and the dark clouds of insecurity will envelpoe us

[eastie]

Just about sums it up hawkeye- saturday will be a massive gAme for us , let's hope for a west he home like display rather than what we produced against Sunderland- we have many games against teams around us and we need to start winning rather than drawing.

[Blackcountry Villa]

I keep waiting to see these 'quality' players people keep banging on about to kick into action (who is quality may i ask? Ashley Young? Do me a favour.) We've got a very average squad who overperformed under O'Neill by playing the simplest form of football, if we persist trying to pass it about we'll stay in trouble because these players can't do it. It smacks of Mowbray at Albion, being stubborn and persisting with passing football even though you aren't winning and despite the players being shit.

As for pointing to our 'easy' run in, we lost at home to Sunderland, and drew with Fulham and Blackpool, i bet a lot of people had us down for 3 wins or at least 2 wins and a draw from them. Our last 3 games worry me aswell, we never beat Wigan at home and we'll lose to Arsenal and Liverpool so we need to be safe before those imo.

[richard moore]

I was updating my diary this morning and putting the Villa fixtures in

Had this horrible premonition come over me that the Stoke home game is going to be pivotal as I was writing it in

Like BCV, I am somewhat troubled by who our quality players are. Or at least, whether we have many more of them than a lot of other teams kicking around near the bottom

[eastie]

I think a win would lift us 4 places tomorrow but defeat would be a disaster , this really is a huge game and I'm praying we deliver the win, the longer it goes the more nervy things get and I really hope we can start getting wins sooner than later, an early goal would be nice but I fear it could be a nervy afternoon .