Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: IFWaters on December 28, 2020, 08:58:24 PM
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26 points from 14 games so far. 1.85 points per game.
Average to get champions league last 10 years is 70 points (1.85 points per game).
Highest in 10 years to get in the top 4 is 75 points, lowest is 66 points.
Put another way, 2 points a game is 76 points for the season, guaranteed top 4.
teams we still have to play twice - Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs and Newcastle..... hmmm maybe we wont get 2 points a game from that lot.
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Dare we do this...? 2009 probably wants its thread back.
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It's starting to like an outside possibility plus we don't have Stoke at home in March. 8)
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26 points from 14 games so far. 1.85 points per game.
Average to get champions league last 10 years is 70 points (1.85 points per game).
Highest in 10 years to get in the top 4 is 75 points, lowest is 66 points.
Put another way, 2 points a game is 76 points for the season, guaranteed top 4.
teams we still have to play twice - Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs and Newcastle..... hmmm maybe we wont get 2 points a game from that lot.
If we can draw at Chelsea and win at Arsenal we can draw away to any of that lot.
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Don't have the squad depth.
Lets just win the FA Cup
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Don't have the squad depth.
Lets just win the FA Cup
Agree 100% - the issue will come when Jack is suspended or injured - This is starting to look like the 10 games on he bounce - just keep going the Villa whatever happens
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It’s a very strange season and ultimately those with depth and quality will prevail.
Look at our bench tonight.
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It's starting to like an outside possibility plus we don't have Stoke at home in March. 8)
......and Glenn Whelan won’t be playing
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It's the hope that kills you!
You know for certain, there will be fans of other clubs looking at this, off the back of us scraping over the line to safety a matter of months ago, pissing themselves at the perceived delusion.
After all, we've got dozens of pages of a Wolves thread taking the piss out of them having the same discussion last season.
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Relative to financial reward and the number of games we need to play, the Europa is too draining in terms of resources so I would rather we just took the shorter route and get into the CL and be done with it.
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Well the good news is, I can't see Edens and Sawiris signing Heskey in the next month.
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Also can’t see Dean playing the stiffs in the quarterfinals of the FA cup.
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It's the hope that kills you!
You know for certain, there will be fans of other clubs looking at this, off the back of us scraping over the line to safety a matter of months ago, pissing themselves at the perceived delusion.
After all, we've got dozens of pages of a Wolves thread taking the piss out of them having the same discussion last season.
Agreed,this looks awfully premature, maybe after the January fixtures and window.
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I don't like this jinxy thread.
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Also can’t see Dean playing the stiffs in the quarterfinals of the FA cup.
Should be enough to see off Marine.
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So tempting....
Normally you need 70 + points as we got 62 points in the infamous 08/09 season and were miles off Arsenal in the end.
Were closer the next season as think it would've gone to final weekend if we'd drawn with Man. City and we finished on 64 points that season losing our last two games.
Given quite a few teams have nearly played half the season now and they're not close to 30 points yet could be a low 60s season which would make it very exciting as you'd assume clubs in europe will continue to drop points. Man. City will have a mad backlog of games to fit in if the Chelsea game at weekend also gets cancelled.
Just playing once a week from middle of Feb should be a huge advantage.
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Fucking hell. I mean, I've been thinking it, but for the love of God don't talk about it.
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Fucking hell. I mean, I've been thinking it, but for the love of God don't talk about it.
This.
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No way man. Just enjoy it, every single second of it. We probably won’t come close in the end, but I expect us to be top 8 at minimum now. But while we are in or around those places, in a year where literally anything can happen why not hope for it and just enjoy a ride no one expected to be on. We have the best player in the league, the best keeper and a number of other very talented players. It’s great what we are doing right now.
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It’s great to be able to set points targets higher than however many are needed to avoid relegation. We’re on course for 70 at the moment on a points per game basis, but I can’t see us maintaining this over a whole season. To get to 60 points would be an amazing achievement, the first time since MON, and not something we have done many times in the EPL era. To beat MON’s highest tally of 64 would be immensely cathartic. As TV has said, the main thing is to enjoy the ride. It’s nice to be relevant again.
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I put after the Leicester game that we could have 30 points by the turn of the year. Someone on here said if we did, then we’d be in the title race. We have 26 having had a very winnable game postponed.
Are we in the title race?
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Right now you would get about 10/1 from the bookies on us finishing top 4.
It's not impossible of course, but I won't be putting a tenner on it.
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The foundations have been set and I'm sure the owners will be well aware of the possibilities. Let's see what business we do in the transfer window.
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The foundations have been set and I'm sure the owners will be well aware of the possibilities. Let's see what business we do in the transfer window.
Tammy and Ross B. Job done.
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This thread is asking for a 10 game losing streak. I'm half expecting it anyway.
Don't mind anyone getting carried away, mind, even Real Wolverhampticos fans. It's all part of the fun, and I expect, like us, predictions of Champions League domination are done with memories of trips to Rotherham still fresh in the mind.
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We have had a great start but we still have to play Spuds Manure Man Citeh and Everton of the other contenders so let's see how we look after that set.
We are definitely in a purple patch but we lost in 4 in 5 before the last 5 where we won 3 and drew 2
I would be more than happy with 60+ points and a 7th/9th place based on potential injuries suspensions and in return fixtures some teams will have worked us out.
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It's nice to have something to aim for.
I'm in.
In my opinion, if we win on Friday it's on. It would be 3 wins and one draw vs the Sky Six this season and two wins vs Leicester and Wolves who are also challengers for the European places.
Why can't we dream? Stranger things have happened!
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Nice to not be doing relegation maths for a change. Feel that the squad isn't large enough in terms of quality to sustain a challenge, but who knows.
I'm just happy to see us back in the Prem, not shitting the bin and claiming a few scalps tbh.
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Nice to not be doing relegation maths for a change. Feel that the squad isn't large enough in terms of quality to sustain a challenge, but who knows.
I'm just happy to see us back in the Prem, not shitting the bin and claiming a few scalps tbh.
I'd prefer to do the maths after we hit 38 points!!
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Don't want to get too carried away and I know it doesn't quite work out like this, but if you look back over our results so far, we could have quite easily been top at this point. A draw at West Ham and wins over Burnley and Newcastle (if it had gone ahead) would have seen us top with the extra goal difference we would have had.
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Sure beats the relegation maths thread.
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Don't want to get too carried away and I know it doesn't quite work out like this, but if you look back over our results so far, we could have quite easily been top at this point. A draw at West Ham and wins over Burnley and Newcastle (if it had gone ahead) would have seen us top with the extra goal difference we would have had.
True but one could say we got 6 points v Wolves/Leicester despite probably only deserving 2.
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We were done out of two likely points by VAR at West Ham and home against Brighton. And we did ourselves out of two points against Burnley by not being able to hit a barn door from a few yards about 27 times. Small margins which would have put us second on 30 points with a game in hand.
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You have to balance that out against decisions that have gone our way too though. And let's be fair there are games we didn't expect to win but did. Even in this recent when we were a little upset not beating Burnley, had we take 7 out 9 by beating them and drawing at Wolves we'd have been happy. We are making our own luck though for the most part and frankly a lot of it isn't luck at all. We are deserving pretty much everything that has come our way.
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If Chelsea win the Champions League and Arsenal win the Europa League we would need to finish in the top three to qualify for the former. Something to keep an eye on in upcoming European games as both sides have made a habit of still managing to win trophies even in their "bad" seasons, recently.
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Can we lock this thread please?!
It's either going to jinx us, and/or look really daft in four months time when we finish 12th!!
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Can we lock this thread please?!
It's either going to jinx us, and/or look really daft in four months time when we finish top, with four matches to spare having gone unbeaten for the rest of the season
Fixed that for you.
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Think it's unlikely we will get top four but it's nice having these conversations rather than hoping the bottom 3 keep losing.
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Think it's unlikely we will get top four but it's nice having these conversations rather than hoping the bottom 3 keep losing.
Thats exactly it for me, wanting Liverpool, utd, , city, too lose to Burnley, West Brom or Fulham. Refreshing change !
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It ain’t happening. Europe would be a pipe dream but 10th or above still great
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Think it's unlikely we will get top four but it's nice having these conversations rather than hoping the bottom 3 keep losing.
Hopefully the club in 19th place keep losing.
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It ain’t happening. Europe would be a pipe dream but 10th or above still great
which 9 teams are better than Villa
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It ain’t happening. Europe would be a pipe dream but 10th or above still great
which 9 teams are better than Villa
Man City, Man Utd, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Juventus, PSG, Brazil, France.
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How low down can the Europa spots go if the top teams win cups etc
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Man United better than Villa? Lol.
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How low down can the Europa spots go if the top teams win cups etc
6th is the lowest space we could qualify for the Europa. 7th for the new UEFA Conference Cup.
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How low down can the Europa spots go if the top teams win cups etc
6th is the lowest space we could qualify for the Europa. 7th for the new UEFA Conference Cup.
What the fuck is that?
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How low down can the Europa spots go if the top teams win cups etc
6th is the lowest space we could qualify for the Europa. 7th for the new UEFA Conference Cup.
What the fuck is that?
Its the first 5 places . 4 Champions league and then 5th is Europa. It changes if FA Cup or league Cup winners finish in the top 5 so then 6th place or even down to 7th place .
Its the permutations but generally top 6 seem to get a European place due to at least one of the winners of domestic competition coming from top 5.
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How low down can the Europa spots go if the top teams win cups etc
6th is the lowest space we could qualify for the Europa. 7th for the new UEFA Conference Cup.
What the fuck is that?
A new third mega-diddy European competition. Like the InterToto but it lasts the whole season. Winners "only" qualify for the next season's Europa League so I can't see English clubs taking it very seriously.
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That sounds horrific, like a domestic Nations League.
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Interesting looking at our points totals after 17 games in the three MON seasons.
07/08- 28 points
08/09 31 points
09/10- 32 points
suggests we're doing o.k considering we had some poor runs in all of those seasons from March onwards.
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Interesting looking at our points totals after 17 games in the three MON seasons.
07/08- 28 points
08/09 31 points
09/10- 32 points
suggests we're doing o.k considering we had some poor runs in all of those seasons from March onwards.
Yes but we've got a decent progressive manager now not a dinosaur who was 5 years past his sell by date. Yes I am still bitter at the missed opportunity.
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Interesting looking at our points totals after 17 games in the three MON seasons.
07/08- 28 points
08/09 31 points
09/10- 32 points
suggests we're doing o.k considering we had some poor runs in all of those seasons from March onwards.
Yes but we've got a decent progressive manager now not a dinosaur who was 5 years past his sell by date. Yes I am still bitter at the missed opportunity.
We still got 60 + points in all three of those seasons and that was strongest level of top flight teams since the 80s imo when you look at the european performance of them all in the 2005-10, think there was an English finalist in every single season and you also had likes of Boro and Fulham making europa final.
Team and manager had its flaws and we certainly should've done better in 08/09 but 60 points is still a decent effort over a season. Just think we only got 62 points in our first season in the championship with 8 extra games! Don't think it's impossible we could beat that haul this season.
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It would be amazing to get to 60 points - we haven't done that too many times during the EPL era.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
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I think you must have a very large squad if you are going to compete in the Europa league. Padded out with quite a few kids. Villa would do fine, but we will be in the champions league instead.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
I think it is prettty worthless . It seems to ruin most English teams season, so if you are attempting top 4 then find your self in a long run in this competition its very difficult to do and gain 4th place. I would rather we went for the CL and forget about the EL and if we enter use it for squad players.
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I think you must have a very large squad if you are going to compete in the Europa league. Padded out with quite a few kids. Villa would do fine, but we will be in the champions league instead.
only got to look at Burnley last season to show your spot on re Europa League. Pointless playing in Europe with a weakened team aka MON
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I think you must have a very large squad if you are going to compete in the Europa league. Padded out with quite a few kids. Villa would do fine, but we will be in the champions league instead.
only got to look at Burnley last season to show your spot on re Europa League. Pointless playing in Europe with a weakened team aka MON
If you want to attract and keep the best players its Champions League, the Europa can serve as a deterrent.
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At the moment we are on track for 65 points. which would get us between 5th and 7th in the last few seasons. But other teams are also doing well in particular West Ham, Everton and Southampton. So those are real 6 pointers.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
I think it is prettty worthless . It seems to ruin most English teams season, so if you are attempting top 4 then find your self in a long run in this competition its very difficult to do and gain 4th place. I would rather we went for the CL and forget about the EL and if we enter use it for squad players.
Leicester City doing ok and in Europa
Man Utd finished 3rd last season got to semis Wolves 7th got to quarters
Chelsea season 2018-19 finished 3rd won Europa
So ....
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
I think it is prettty worthless . It seems to ruin most English teams season, so if you are attempting top 4 then find your self in a long run in this competition its very difficult to do and gain 4th place. I would rather we went for the CL and forget about the EL and if we enter use it for squad players.
Leicester City doing ok and in Europa
Man Utd finished 3rd last season got to semis Wolves 7th got to quarters
Chelsea season 2018-19 finished 3rd won Europa
So ....
I agree with this, the teams that see it as a chore are generally teams that don't have strong enough squads to consistently challenge for the top 6 anyway.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
I think it is prettty worthless . It seems to ruin most English teams season, so if you are attempting top 4 then find your self in a long run in this competition its very difficult to do and gain 4th place. I would rather we went for the CL and forget about the EL and if we enter use it for squad players.
Leicester City doing ok and in Europa
Man Utd finished 3rd last season got to semis Wolves 7th got to quarters
Chelsea season 2018-19 finished 3rd won Europa
So ....
I agree with this, the teams that see it as a chore are generally teams that don't have strong enough squads to consistently challenge for the top 6 anyway.
there are plenty of other examples when it has had a detrimental effect , particularly teams that do not have squad depth.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
I think it is prettty worthless . It seems to ruin most English teams season, so if you are attempting top 4 then find your self in a long run in this competition its very difficult to do and gain 4th place. I would rather we went for the CL and forget about the EL and if we enter use it for squad players.
Leicester City doing ok and in Europa
Man Utd finished 3rd last season got to semis Wolves 7th got to quarters
Chelsea season 2018-19 finished 3rd won Europa
So ....
I agree with this, the teams that see it as a chore are generally teams that don't have strong enough squads to consistently challenge for the top 6 anyway.
there are plenty of other examples when it has had a detrimental effect , particularly teams that do not have squad depth.
I'm not sure how that disagrees with what I said, teams with a decent amount of squad depth (which we will have by the start of next season in my opinion) generally use it as a chance to rotate players and give the fringe players a decent amount of gametime, clubs that can't do that are the ones that suffer.
All said I'd rather be in it than not finishing high enough in the league to qualify, in the same way I'd take a win in the FA cup and the place that comes from it without a thought.
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I'm not sure how that disagrees with what I said, teams with a decent amount of squad depth (which we will have by the start of next season in my opinion) generally use it as a chance to rotate players and give the fringe players a decent amount of gametime, clubs that can't do that are the ones that suffer.
All said I'd rather be in it than not finishing high enough in the league to qualify, in the same way I'd take a win in the FA cup and the place that comes from it without a thought.
I’d agree with that. If we did qualify for the Europa League the challenge would be to ensure that we have the squad depth to deal with it, but I’d rather have that challenge than not.
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The point of football is to win trophies. If we can rest players and still progress, so be it. But I would never want to see us surrender a European place like we did under O'Neill, and find it baffling that any Villa fan would turn their nose up at a decent chance of silverware after a quarter of a century without.
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The point of football is to win trophies. If we can rest players and still progress, so be it. But I would never want to see us surrender a European place like we did under O'Neill, and find it baffling that any Villa fan would turn their nose up at a decent chance of silverware after a quarter of a century without.
Totally agree CDBWF.
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The point of football is to win trophies. If we can rest players and still progress, so be it. But I would never want to see us surrender a European place like we did under O'Neill, and find it baffling that any Villa fan would turn their nose up at a decent chance of silverware after a quarter of a century without.
Absolutely this
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A place in the Europa League will surely only help a club like us that is trying to establish a place at the top end of the table. If we want to attract good players the promise of European football is not only a bonus, but a necessity if we want squad depth of 25 players who are good enough to slot straight into the first team if required.
At the moment we have a decent first team squad depth of 16-17 players (although with some obvious gaps and a significant drop in quality in some positions), but we will struggle to attract the calibre of players we would like to fill the squad (or retain current first teamers who get replaced) because we can't promise any significant game time. If we are in Europe, however, suddenly fringe players can still expect to get 15-20 games a season in cups, plus then be available to cover injuries in the league and stake a claim on a first team place.
I suppose the best example from the current squad would be someone like Tom Heaton - he is too good to be a reserve, but isn't getting in ahead of Martinez so his choice has to be to move. We then have to find someone to replace him who is unlikely to be at the same level, and so we are landed in the situation that if Martinez gets injured then there is a big drop in the quality of the reserve (not to have a dig at Jed Steer who also deserves first team football somewhere). With Europa qualification, however, Heaton would potentially get a significant amount of game time and we have high quality backup if required.
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The point of football is to win trophies. If we can rest players and still progress, so be it. But I would never want to see us surrender a European place like we did under O'Neill, and find it baffling that any Villa fan would turn their nose up at a decent chance of silverware after a quarter of a century without.
Absolutely this. I am still sore that we didn't manage a Uefa Cup win during the 1990s. Surely any Villa fan would want us in the Europa League? It's been far too long since we had big European games.
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I always think it's a bit odd that teams bust a gut to get into Europe and then throw in the towel. If we manage European qualification this season that can only be a good thing and a remarkable turnaround from last season.
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The point of football is to win trophies. If we can rest players and still progress, so be it. But I would never want to see us surrender a European place like we did under O'Neill, and find it baffling that any Villa fan would turn their nose up at a decent chance of silverware after a quarter of a century without.
Absolutely this. I am still sore that we didn't manage a Uefa Cup win during the 1990s. Surely any Villa fan would want us in the Europa League? It's been far too long since we had big European games.
I dont
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The point of football is to win trophies. If we can rest players and still progress, so be it. But I would never want to see us surrender a European place like we did under O'Neill, and find it baffling that any Villa fan would turn their nose up at a decent chance of silverware after a quarter of a century without.
Absolutely this. I am still sore that we didn't manage a Uefa Cup win during the 1990s. Surely any Villa fan would want us in the Europa League? It's been far too long since we had big European games.
I dont
I think it's just you then.
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I always think it's a bit odd that teams bust a gut to get into Europe and then throw in the towel. If we manage European qualification this season that can only be a good thing and a remarkable turnaround from last season.
It won't happen, but absolutely.
If we have ambitions of playing in the Champions League we're going to have to get used to playing twice a week during most of the season. What better way to prepare for that than by winning the Europa League?
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Smithy is aware how starved we are of silverware & I'm sure he would want to win as many trophies as possible, irrespective of what trophies they are.
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If you take the top 10 not including us, we have won 3 lost 4 and drawn 1 with 2 still to play.
We will need to significantly improve on this to be any where near.
I dread the Europa League.
Not having a go here Chicago but why do people fear the Europa League, its two extra matches (one round) if you get to the final? It means a Thursday/Sunday as opposed to Sat/Tue or Weds schedule for parts of the season but I'm struggling to see why that matters.
I think it is prettty worthless . It seems to ruin most English teams season, so if you are attempting top 4 then find your self in a long run in this competition its very difficult to do and gain 4th place. I would rather we went for the CL and forget about the EL and if we enter use it for squad players.
Leicester City doing ok and in Europa
Man Utd finished 3rd last season got to semis Wolves 7th got to quarters
Chelsea season 2018-19 finished 3rd won Europa
So ....
I agree with this, the teams that see it as a chore are generally teams that don't have strong enough squads to consistently challenge for the top 6 anyway.
there are plenty of other examples when it has had a detrimental effect , particularly teams that do not have squad depth.
I'm not sure how that disagrees with what I said, teams with a decent amount of squad depth (which we will have by the start of next season in my opinion) generally use it as a chance to rotate players and give the fringe players a decent amount of gametime, clubs that can't do that are the ones that suffer.
All said I'd rather be in it than not finishing high enough in the league to qualify, in the same way I'd take a win in the FA cup and the place that comes from it without a thought.
When you look at how we did it under MON we played a really strong team v Ajax in our first game and won that which put us in a really strong position to qualify and then we put largely second string teams out for the other three games, won in Prague and then lost at home to Zilina and away to Hamburg.
Was a bizarre system in those years, rather than just home and away in four team group it was five teams and we played one home, one away for some reason.
Anyway the problem was suddenly deciding to switch to reserve team for 2nd leg of knock out rounds so that should never happen again and wouldn't given europa now has champions league qualification for the winners.
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To be clear I'm talking about playing a reserve team, just that with the extra games it would make it easier for people like Heaton, El Ghazi, Nakamba and Hause to get 15-20 starts in the season without us looking like we're constantly changing the team.
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If we qualified for Europe, we'd add 3 or 4 more bodies onto what we've got. That would be a pretty reasonable squad size surely?
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I've never understood why bother qualifying for a competition and then bombing it by playing reserve players. MON took a gamble in Moscow which backfired I was not one bit happy and didnt even go to the free night at VP.
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Close the thread
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Close this
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Close the thread
Why? Lost your bottle?
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Yes another one please close this thread. It’s embarrassing.
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I'm off to find a bottle or two after that
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Close the thread
Why? Lost your bottle?
macho man strikes again
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If we can't cope with a shit team trying to unsettle us we are nowhere near a top four team.
That's the most disappointing night of the season. Shocking- poor at the back, soft in midfield and not clinical enough in the final third.
Much work to be done.
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We are not a top four side in the near fututre. Losing todays game together with some others like Wet ham shows that and you cant put it down as bad luck IMO.
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1 point against Genital Wart FC could prove costly.
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I think we can lock this thread being realistic!
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17 points in 14 games - we aint finishing in top 4 with a record like that, we lose too many games
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I'm all in favour of raising the expectation levels but sadly its unrealistic this season. For all our good players and exciting play here we sit in 10th place.
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I'm all in favour of raising the expectation levels but sadly its unrealistic this season. For all our good players and exciting play here we sit in 10th place.
I'll be delighted if we finish 10th this season after scraping over the line last season.
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We can finish higher, won't be 4th though by a long way as much as it was nice to dream for a bit.
Can't see us finishing above likes of Leicester and Everton who just have better squads but West Ham due a bad run soon and we're still above Southampton who've been top 10 pretty much all the season.
Would be nice to finish above at least one of Chelsea or Arsenal given we haven't finished above either since the mid 90s.
8th feels right to me. Next two are very big to try to get there.
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Good chance for Europa League. 8-6th a good possibility.
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Good chance for Europa League. 8-6th a good possibility.
Just had a look back at some of our early 2000s finishes.
We finished 8th in 01/02 season with just 50 points. Won 12 games all season which we're only three off equalling now. The days when we'd draw nearly half our games under JG.
Our most recent 9th finish in 2011 was with just 48 points. 12 wins, 12 draws.
We're doing well but it dosen't feel like that looking at the table. Shows how inflated the league currently is with points totals given how bad Sheffield have been and the lack of home and away points difference you usually get for most teams.
A point at Southampton and we're still on course for a 60 point season. Good enough for top 6 in two of the MON years but might only be good enough for 9th this year unless a few teams above us go on significant winless runs.
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Good chance for Europa League. 8-6th a good possibility.
Just had a look back at some of our early 2000s finishes.
We finished 8th in 01/02 season with just 50 points. Won 12 games all season which we're only three off equalling now. The days when we'd draw nearly half our games under JG.
Our most recent 9th finish in 2011 was with just 48 points. 12 wins, 12 draws.
We're doing well but it dosen't feel like that looking at the table. Shows how inflated the league currently is with points totals given how bad Sheffield have been and the lack of home and away points difference you usually get for most teams.
A point at Southampton and we're still on course for a 60 point season. Good enough for top 6 in two of the MON years but might only be good enough for 9th this year unless a few teams above us go on significant winless runs.
On course to lose 14-16 games. Far too many.
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Good chance for Europa League. 8-6th a good possibility.
Just had a look back at some of our early 2000s finishes.
We finished 8th in 01/02 season with just 50 points. Won 12 games all season which we're only three off equalling now. The days when we'd draw nearly half our games under JG.
Our most recent 9th finish in 2011 was with just 48 points. 12 wins, 12 draws.
We're doing well but it dosen't feel like that looking at the table. Shows how inflated the league currently is with points totals given how bad Sheffield have been and the lack of home and away points difference you usually get for most teams.
A point at Southampton and we're still on course for a 60 point season. Good enough for top 6 in two of the MON years but might only be good enough for 9th this year unless a few teams above us go on significant winless runs.
On course to lose 14-16 games. Far too many.
Spurs finished 4th with 13 defeats in 18/19.
Draws kill hopes to finish that far up the league as much as defeats do sometimes.
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We've lost too many games we should of taken points from. I really can't see us getting 4th, we waste to many opportunities.
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We’re not ready for the top 4 yet but it’s great that a season removed from almost going down we even have those aspirations. Yes we lost tonight and realistically we will finish around 8th. But let’s have fun with this. If we win our two games in hand we are above West Ham in 4th.
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Good chance for Europa League. 8-6th a good possibility.
Just had a look back at some of our early 2000s finishes.
We finished 8th in 01/02 season with just 50 points. Won 12 games all season which we're only three off equalling now. The days when we'd draw nearly half our games under JG.
Our most recent 9th finish in 2011 was with just 48 points. 12 wins, 12 draws.
We're doing well but it dosen't feel like that looking at the table. Shows how inflated the league currently is with points totals given how bad Sheffield have been and the lack of home and away points difference you usually get for most teams.
A point at Southampton and we're still on course for a 60 point season. Good enough for top 6 in two of the MON years but might only be good enough for 9th this year unless a few teams above us go on significant winless runs.
On course to lose 14-16 games. Far too many.
Spurs finished 4th with 13 defeats in 18/19.
Draws kill hopes to finish that far up the league as much as defeats do sometimes.
Be nice to have 3 extra points from defeats like tonight's, Spam away and Brighton at home. My point is we just lose games we shouldn't.
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As frustrating the missed opportunity at Burnley is I suppose we haven’t lost out too much with all these draws around us.
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Should also be Europa League maths, we aren’t a credible Champions League chance imo. 5-8th is realistic, higher is not imo.
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Good chance for Europa League. 8-6th a good possibility.
Just had a look back at some of our early 2000s finishes.
We finished 8th in 01/02 season with just 50 points. Won 12 games all season which we're only three off equalling now. The days when we'd draw nearly half our games under JG.
Our most recent 9th finish in 2011 was with just 48 points. 12 wins, 12 draws.
We're doing well but it dosen't feel like that looking at the table. Shows how inflated the league currently is with points totals given how bad Sheffield have been and the lack of home and away points difference you usually get for most teams.
A point at Southampton and we're still on course for a 60 point season. Good enough for top 6 in two of the MON years but might only be good enough for 9th this year unless a few teams above us go on significant winless runs.
On course to lose 14-16 games. Far too many.
Spurs finished 4th with 13 defeats in 18/19.
Draws kill hopes to finish that far up the league as much as defeats do sometimes.
Be nice to have 3 extra points from defeats like tonight's, Spam away and Brighton at home. My point is we just lose games we shouldn't.
Bet you were fist pumping like big 'Eck when we dug out that 0-0 v Burnley (wink). That game was more annoying than some of the defeats we've had this season.
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Don't forget we've nicked games where a draw was probably fair (at Leicester and Wolves). We've had many boring seasons full of draws in recent memory (Gregory a couple of times, O'Neill's first season), it's quite refreshing to support an exciting team where practically every game is do or die.
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Close the thread
Why? Lost your bottle?
macho man strikes again
No, I just want to hold on to the dream thst we can continue to improve. Anything is possible this season.
I see no reason why not, with the way we play.
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Close the thread
Why? Lost your bottle?
macho man strikes again
No, I just want to hold on to the dream thst we can continue to improve. Anything is possible this season.
I see no reason why not, with the way we play.
Fair point, I think a few players and the manager did bottle it last night.
I am still angry about it to be honest, how we could go from being sublime to awful so easily was difficult to watch.
I do think we look a bit Wolves with this thread though.
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Yes, I've never liked this thread. Our record since it started is played five, lost four.
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I am still angry about it to be honest, how we could go from being sublime to awful so easily was difficult to watch.
I do think we look a bit Wolves with this thread though.
It's the hope that kills you!
You know for certain, there will be fans of other clubs looking at this, off the back of us scraping over the line to safety a matter of months ago, pissing themselves at the perceived delusion.
After all, we've got dozens of pages of a Wolves thread taking the piss out of them having the same discussion last season.
*Nods head, sagely* ;)
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We’re not ready for the top 4 yet but it’s great that a season removed from almost going down we even have those aspirations. Yes we lost tonight and realistically we will finish around 8th. But let’s have fun with this. If we win our two games in hand we are above West Ham in 4th.
I'd go a step further and say we are not ready for Europe full stop. We need a couple of friendlies against continental teams, the squad is not great, good first 12/13 and then we scrape things. And travel may still be all over the place until Christmas 2021
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Of course we're not ready for Europe. The idea would be that if we can/do qualify, we could maybe add another 4/5 quality players and then have the depth to be able to cope with the extra games and maybe blood some of the kids. As for scraping things, teams win the league by playing badly but still winning 1-0. It's actually a good habit to have as long as it's not happening all the time.
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Wouldn't it be great if we did make the Champions League I for one would be extremely excited by that thought.
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Wouldn't it be great if we did make the Champions League I for one would be extremely excited by that thought.
Me too. The talent we could attract to our already quality team.
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How "ready for Europe" were we in 1981? Wolves hadn't qualified for Europe since we were still connected to France by land and they made the quarter-finals with a squad thinner than Kate Moss after Dry January.
Fuck it, bring 'em on.
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I can remember back in 2008 a few were saying most of our team weren't good enough for what was still Uefa cup back then and then a few years later Milner, Young and Barry were all regulars for champions league teams.
Indeed we comfortably got through the group stages that season playing likes of Shorey, Sidwell, Osbourne, Salifou and Delfounseo in most of the games after we won v Ajax.
This is the team we won in Prague with:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/europe/7697334.stm
I'd back what we have now to do the same and get through the groups now, bigger problem would be the whole Thursday-Sunday thing and the impact that has if you don't have huge depth and constantly have to play same starting 11. Burnley found that out three seasons back.
Qualifying for europe also massively helps keeping Jack happy for a few more years so I'd prefer to do it than not as player of his quality has to be playing in it in next few years.
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Look how it finished! MON played a second string in Moscow. A lot of supporters money got spent and we were invited to a dinner. My way of thinking about it is if you qualify for a cup then go for it.
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Can't believe O'Neill's behaviour that night. Didnt he say something along the lines of "Shut the fcuk up complaining about your expensive trip to Moscow and eat your peas and faggots"?
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Look how it finished! MON played a second string in Moscow. A lot of supporters money got spent and we were invited to a dinner. My way of thinking about it is if you qualify for a cup then go for it.
That was just a managerial decision that completely backfired given our league form from that point to end of the season.
My point was we'd be o.k mixing the team up in the group stages. Leicester did that and they qualified comfortably for knock outs as did Spurs.
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We got to a cup final last year rotating the squad for much of the run. Our squad is much better now.
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Just realised that had we beaten Burnley, then we'd be six points off 2nd place with 2 games in hand and a better goal difference.
This season is nuts.
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Look how it finished! MON played a second string in Moscow. A lot of supporters money got spent and we were invited to a dinner. My way of thinking about it is if you qualify for a cup then go for it.
That was just a managerial decision that completely backfired given our league form from that point to end of the season.
My point was we'd be o.k mixing the team up in the group stages. Leicester did that and they qualified comfortably for knock outs as did Spurs.
Wasn't his logic that he wanted to rest the first team for the "must win" Stoke game the following weekend?
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Can't believe O'Neill's behaviour that night. Didnt he say something along the lines of "Shut the fcuk up complaining about your expensive trip to Moscow and eat your peas and faggots"?
[/quote
Along with a lot more that went to Moscow didnt go to VP for the "dinner"
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A place in the Europa League will surely only help a club like us that is trying to establish a place at the top end of the table. If we want to attract good players the promise of European football is not only a bonus, but a necessity if we want squad depth of 25 players who are good enough to slot straight into the first team if required.
At the moment we have a decent first team squad depth of 16-17 players (although with some obvious gaps and a significant drop in quality in some positions), but we will struggle to attract the calibre of players we would like to fill the squad (or retain current first teamers who get replaced) because we can't promise any significant game time. If we are in Europe, however, suddenly fringe players can still expect to get 15-20 games a season in cups, plus then be available to cover injuries in the league and stake a claim on a first team place.
I suppose the best example from the current squad would be someone like Tom Heaton - he is too good to be a reserve, but isn't getting in ahead of Martinez so his choice has to be to move. We then have to find someone to replace him who is unlikely to be at the same level, and so we are landed in the situation that if Martinez gets injured then there is a big drop in the quality of the reserve (not to have a dig at Jed Steer who also deserves first team football somewhere). With Europa qualification, however, Heaton would potentially get a significant amount of game time and we have high quality backup if required.
I've been turned from being a Europe-denier by this. Makes a lot of sense - we've an excellent first team now, but need the depth. The only way we'll get players of sufficient quality in as squad players is if we can realistically offer them 20ish games a season and a decent shot at the first team .... and that means playing in Europe, even if it is "only" the UEFA Cup.
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7pts from the next 3, 10/11 from the next 5 would leave us nicely in the CL/Europa hunt.
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in my very dodgy opinion we arn't finishing above -
Man city
Liverpool
Man utd
so that leaves one space for champs league, which i think even with their no show against Leeds will be Leicester
i think its a shoot out between Villa, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Everton, Southampton, for the remaining 2/3 spots depending
iv'e not put West Ham in there as i don't think they are that good, yes they are having a good season but i don't see them lasting quality wise
i have put Southampton in there because they are good and the only team to better us in performances (not results) over two games this season and they capable of finishing strongly
however in this season of 'anything can happen' i honestly think we can compete for at least a Europa spot (which i would take right now) and be soon off to sunny old Turkey, Russia or the Czech Republic in no time
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7pts from the next 3, 10/11 from the next 5 would leave us nicely in the CL/Europa hunt.
And key fixtures over all being
West ham at home -wednesday.
Chelsea at home - last match of the season . No Ross Barkley.
Leicester at home later this month
Man Utd at Home. May.
Man City at Home- April just after the champions League quarter finals. 2nd leg and FA Cup Semis that weekend so maybe arranged
We have 2 games in hand on Chelsea, West Ham and Leicester who currently occupy 4th (and 2 games in hand on 3rd and 2nd place teams Liverpool and Man Utd)
It's very much in our own hands what we want to achieve this season.
We have 9 matches now where we only play 2 teams ahead of Villa in the league . Both this month. West Ham and Leicester.
Arsenal are maybe of consideration of the other 7 matches before Liverpool away.
And we have to play Everton and Spurs 4 times.
It looks very very promising indeed. As it's up to Villa and the good performances and results can be rewarded
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If we have realistic hopes of European qualification (and I still think it might be just a bit too much to ask from a team that avoided relegation on the last day), then EVERY game counts.
Not in the same way every game counts when you're fighting relegation, because you know in a relegation fight a bad result doesn't automatically mean your 'rivals' get away from you - they're likely to be getting bad results too. But when you're chasing Europe, bad results mean you almost certainly lose at least a little more ground, and we're going to have bad results because we're still a relatively 'new' team - a young side without huge amounts of premier league experience. We're a very GOOD side right now, and we'll only get better - even the same players next year are young enough to be better next year - but I'm not sure we have enough in the tank to put the sort of run together needed to get into Europe. God I hope I'm wrong...
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We can definitely do it (Europa, not CL in my view), but it's important not to see it as a failure if we don't quite make it.
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I think Europe is possible. The next two games will give us a big clue as to whether the pipe dream of the Champions League might actually be feasible.
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We can definitely do it (Europa, not CL in my view), but it's important not to see it as a failure if we don't quite make it.
For me, we're a year ahead of schedule. In August, I'd have happily taken comfortable mid-table obscurity, and a few wins against some of the bigger teams. Followed by a run at the European places in 2021/22. The fact that we're even in the European conversation in February is a reflection of how quickly we've improved in a very short space of time.
I'd be very disappointed if we now drifted and finished 10-12 - but I certainly wouldn't see it as a 'failure' (genuine failure is still too fresh in the memory for that to be the case). I guess finishing mid-table would be 'on plan', especially if we build on it in the summer and go again next year with more realistic European ambitions.
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We can definitely do it (Europa, not CL in my view), but it's important not to see it as a failure if we don't quite make it.
For me, we're a year ahead of schedule. In August, I'd have happily taken comfortable mid-table obscurity, and a few wins against some of the bigger teams. Followed by a run at the European places in 2021/22. The fact that we're even in the European conversation in February is a reflection of how quickly we've improved in a very short space of time.
I'd be very disappointed if we now drifted and finished 10-12 - but I certainly wouldn't see it as a 'failure' (genuine failure is still too fresh in the memory for that to be the case). I guess finishing mid-table would be 'on plan', especially if we build on it in the summer and go again next year with more realistic European ambitions.
I completely agree. I would be disappointed now with a bottom half finish.
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Would be the first time in ten years we've finished in the top half of the Prem.
Ten. Years. Long overdue. Would like it to happen. Anything else is a bonus and we push forward from there.
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A bottom half finish would be by no means a failure but it would be a big disappointment. It would porbably indicate a serious injury to a kep player like Ollie or Jack, because at the moment we can beat anybody on our day, we just have to get better at cutting out silly mistakes and not fucking up againts "lesser" teams.
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Hitting last season's total (hopefully, after tonight's game) would represent an amazing success; knowing we can progress without the pressure to survive; being more expansive in the knowledge of our first-tier security; honing our skills in and experience of top-flight football; attracting new admirers before the next transfer window.
I hope this is how the coaches and players will see it, too: as a chance to invest in next season's success.
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in my very dodgy opinion we arn't finishing above -
Man city
Liverpool
Man utd
so that leaves one space for champs league, which i think even with their no show against Leeds will be Leicester
i think its a shoot out between Villa, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Everton, Southampton, for the remaining 2/3 spots depending
iv'e not put West Ham in there as i don't think they are that good, yes they are having a good season but i don't see them lasting quality wise
i have put Southampton in there because they are good and the only team to better us in performances (not results) over two games this season and they capable of finishing strongly
however in this season of 'anything can happen' i honestly think we can compete for at least a Europa spot (which i would take right now) and be soon off to sunny old Turkey, Russia or the Czech Republic in no time
After last night you can take Southampton out of the equation. Arsenal have too much ground to make up. West Ham haven't got enough.
Everton, Chelsea and Spuds along with Leicester are the teams vying to finish ahead of us ;)
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Everton have pretty much replicated our form all season. Like us they won the first 4 games of the season then they lost something like 4 out of 5 over October-November and then bounced back with a really good run in December as we did.
There's 1 point in it and I don't see them streaking way ahead of us at any point as they've got some tough games over next few weeks.
6th could well be low 60s this season so it should certainly be a target given what we've averaged so far. Tough ask but if we win 5 and draw 3 of the next 9 games we will be on 50 points with still 10 games left so that would put us in a very good position and likely above a few of the teams we're just below.
Probably one of Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal will go on big winning run but they won't all do that so big opportunity to finish above two of them for the first time in a long while.
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Burnley have bettered us in results if not performance over two games this season.
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
I'd love a good run in the UEFA Cup. Get the players used to it, ready for the Champions League when we win the Premier League........
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Oh, and this is as good a place as any, but is anyone else a little disappointed the club is pushing the 40th Anniversary thing a bit too much? I'm all for celebrating historical things like founding the league but highlighting a playing success from such a long while ago, marvellous as it was, just seems to bring attention to the subsequent failings.
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
That's the best bit of European football!
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Oh, and this is as good a place as any, but is anyone else a little disappointed the club is pushing the 40th Anniversary thing a bit too much? I'm all for celebrating historical things like founding the league but highlighting a playing success from such a long while ago, marvellous as it was, just seems to bring attention to the subsequent failings.
I didn't know we'd even done anything. Has a Ron Saunders statue been commissioned or something?
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
I am with you, I think it sets our CL ambitions backwards, so I agree I would rather either Domestic cup but especialy the FA Cup.
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
I would have said it's the first essential step we need to take to retain Jack. So yeah, I want to qualify for the Europa League. Desperately.
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The thing with Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton & Spurs is they all have much deeper squads than we do. So do West Ham to some extent and whilst they don't have Jack they do have some decent quality.
I think on form we're capable of top 6, but if we get an injury or a dip in form I just don't think we'll have the depth to cope. But you never know and so long as we don't implode it will have been an excellent season either way.
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The thing with Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton & Spurs is they all have much deeper squads than we do. So do West Ham to some extent and whilst they don't have Jack they do have some decent quality.
I think on form we're capable of top 6, but if we get an injury or a dip in form I just don't think we'll have the depth to cope. But you never know and so long as we don't implode it will have been an excellent season either way.
We can handle a couple of injuries as long as it's not Jack, Watkins or Targett, and I'd agree with your assessment.
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The thing with Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton & Spurs is they all have much deeper squads than we do. So do West Ham to some extent and whilst they don't have Jack they do have some decent quality.
I think on form we're capable of top 6, but if we get an injury or a dip in form I just don't think we'll have the depth to cope. But you never know and so long as we don't implode it will have been an excellent season either way.
Taken a sample of last 6 seasons.
Teams 4th , 5th 6th 7th with 21 matches played. finishing position and final points.
2014/15
4 Man Utd 37pts (4th 70pts)
5 Arsenal 36pts (3rd 75pts)
6 Spurs 34pts (5th 64pts)
7 West Ham 33pts (12th 47pts)
2015/16
4 Spurs 36pts (3rd 70pts)
5 West Ham 35pts (7th 62pts)
6 Man Utd 34pts (5th 66pts)
7 Stoke 32pts (9th 51pts)
2016/17
4 Arsenal 44pts (5th 75pts)
5 Man City 42pts (3rd 78pts)
6 Man Utd 40pts (6th 69pts)
7 Everton 33pts (7th 61pts)
2017/18
4 Liverpool 41pts (4th 75pts)
5 Arsenal 38 (6th 63pts)
6 Spurs 37pts played 20. (3rd 77pts)
7 Burnley 34pts (7th 54pts )
2018/19
4 Chelsea 44pts (finished 3rd 72pts)
5 Arsenal 41pts (finished 5th 70pts)
6 Man Utd 38pts (finished 6th 66pts)
7 Leicester 31pts (finished 9th 52pts)
2019/20
4 Chelsea 36pts (finished 4th 66pts)
5 Man Utd 31pts (finished 3rd 66pts)
6 Spurs 30pts (finished 6th 59pts)
7 Wolves 30pts (finished 7th 59pts )
20/21
This season current - 21 matches played. (Unless stated)
4 Leicester 39pts
5 West Ham 35pts
6 Spurs 33pts (20 games)
7 Chelsea 33pts
8 Everton 33pts (19 games)
9 Villa 32pts (19 games)
All to play for. And certainly in our hands even more so having Everton and Spurs as our games in hand. As we have to play them both twice. And results against both home and away will Impacts all 3 clubs placing come season end.
But focusing firstly on the 2 matches in hand
Spurs home
Everton home
Provided we don't lose both then it's a return of
1pt, 2pt , 3pt, 4pt, 6pt to be added to current 32pts
And beating either would give us good chance to climb above them.
Drawing is no good in trying to reach for champions league and it's imperative we beat as many of the teams above us to make ground starting with West Ham tonight.
As we have to play every. Team above us at home apart from Liverpool and the Spurs and Everton double fixtures it really is a perfect opportunity to finish as high as possible.
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The thing with Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton & Spurs is they all have much deeper squads than we do. So do West Ham to some extent and whilst they don't have Jack they do have some decent quality.
I think on form we're capable of top 6, but if we get an injury or a dip in form I just don't think we'll have the depth to cope. But you never know and so long as we don't implode it will have been an excellent season either way.
We can handle a couple of injuries as long as it's not Jack, Watkins or Targett, and I'd agree with your assessment.
After this week it is basically a game a week till the end of the season. Barring some very bad luck we should be ok in terms of our squad this season.
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
I am with you, I think it sets our CL ambitions backwards, so I agree I would rather either Domestic cup but especialy the FA Cup.
If you win it, you qualify for the Champions League. If you're in it, you attract better players.
It makes the Champions League much more likely, not less.
And I'd rather play exotic foreign teams that "you've never heard of" than watch us play the same teams all the time.
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Is it just me that doesn't want to qualify for the Europa League. Playing hundreds of games against teams you've never heard of. I would rather take the League Cup or FA Cup more seriously.
I am with you, I think it sets our CL ambitions backwards, so I agree I would rather either Domestic cup but especialy the FA Cup.
If you win it, you qualify for the Champions League. If you're in it, you attract better players.
It makes the Champions League much more likely, not less.
And I'd rather play exotic foreign teams that "you've never heard of" than watch us play the same teams all the time.
I do fancy a European Trip though :)
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It makes the Champions League much more likely, not less.
And I'd rather play exotic foreign teams that "you've never heard of" than watch us play the same teams all the time.
I do fancy a European Trip though :)
Typical spawny Vilers qualifying for Europe just after the travel restrictions have been lifted. Even with the post-lockdown desire to travel they still won't bring half as many as we did to Bruges etc.
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when are the games we missed against Everton and Spurs going to be re-scheduled to ?
We are already playing them both in May.
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We are scheduled to play Sheffield United in the week which clashes with the next round of the cup, they play Bristol City while Everton have been drawn against Tottenham. There is already a set "reserve date" for Premier League fixtures that clash with this cup round.
So, if Sheffield United go through I suspect we play the loser of the Everton/Spurs tie during FA Cup weekend and play Sheffield United on the reserve date.
If Sheffield United get knocked out we can play them as planned and play either Everton or Tottenham on the reserve date.
Sheffield United v Villa scheduled for Saturday 20th March at present.
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Just lock this thread.
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Played seven, won two, lost five.
Get this thread in the sea.
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26 points from 14 games so far. 1.85 points per game.
Average to get champions league last 10 years is 70 points (1.85 points per game).
Highest in 10 years to get in the top 4 is 75 points, lowest is 66 points.
Put another way, 2 points a game is 76 points for the season, guaranteed top 4.
teams we still have to play twice - Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs and Newcastle..... hmmm maybe we wont get 2 points a game from that lot.
Since this first post we’ve got 6 points from 6 games. I knew it would curse things.
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Top 6 ain't happening.
Still need to finish top 10 though as bottom half would be hugely disappointing given how we've generally played this season and could mean Leeds or Wolves finish above us and we don't really want that.
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Just lock this thread.
Burn it with fire.
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Played seven, won two, lost five.
Get this thread in the sea.
As i said above somewhere, we lose too often. If we could scrape out 2-3 draws from the defeats we would be better off points wise and psychologically. We get beat too often.
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Just lock this thread.
Burn it with fire.
It needs pushing off the front page. What is the collective noun for a group of African car reverser threads ?
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We could just rename it "operation longshot" ?
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Fucking jinx of a thread.
If we don't close this fucking Jonah Arsenal will do us. Lock it and rename it Orange Dot. Watch us spank those North London cock sockets on Saturday
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Fully in agreement with Ads on this.
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I don’t think we will be getting in to Europe. Last night was an opportunity to go joint 5th with a game in hand, so even at this relatively early stage of the season it was a big game. Add to the mix that the champions in 4th lost (we would possibly need to catch them and they don’t lose many!) and champions league for definite is out of reach. There is still an element of weak mentality at the club that when we have a big game, with something on it, we go missing. Cup finals, champions league qualification opportunities over the last 20 years or so have all been missed. In my opinion this is due to a weak mentality and it isn’t going to just go from the club. At the top end of the table we have very few been there done it players, something I am hoping we will address and hopefully we can give it a better go. We aren’t a bad team but there is a reason why European qualification is a free hit for us and a must for other clubs.
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Fully in agreement with Ads on this.
Yep. This thread needs to disappear.
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It was a daft thread in the first place.
We got 35 points last year, scraping over the line only because we got 7 points from 12 in our last 4 games. If you believe in such things, the fact we're still in this division is a miracle. Talk of finishing in the top 4 a few months later, given the financial disparity to the top 6 is ridiculous.
Let's just enjoy the season. We're winning more than we did last year but we'll also lose plenty. That's got to be expected. We're a young team playing the best football I've seen from the Villa in 30 years. Just enjoy the ride and lets not get carried away.
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Fucking jinx of a thread.
If we don't close this fucking Jonah Arsenal will do us. Lock it and rename it Orange Dot. Watch us spank those North London cock sockets on Saturday
This! Close it, delete it, bury it, then do a word filter on anything with "those words!"
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We got eight points from the four games at the end of last season.
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Played seven, won two, lost five.
Get this thread in the sea.
As i said above somewhere, we lose too often. If we could scrape out 2-3 draws from the defeats we would be better off points wise and psychologically. We get beat too often.
It’s the way we play. Grabbing draws from potential defeats also means we’ll be grabbing draws from potential wins so we’d be a lot worse off. Champions League was always a pipe dream but top 8, even top 6 or 7 and maybe Europa League is a big possibility.
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Pssssssttt....
Double maths this afternoon working out the points total needed for 7th.
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If Watkins and or Grealish stay injury-free then a European spot is definitely not out of the question. Can't afford many more performances like the West Ham one though.
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I've given up on 2nd place now to be honest. But anywhere else is still quite possible.
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Win the two games in hand and Leicester and keep the other results better than or the same as the others (as if...) and we are third.
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Looking at the table now. We have 2 games in hand , home to Spurs and home to Everton. If we got 3 points from those we would be 5th, ahead of both of them and ahead of West Ham on goal diff and and Chelsea on goal difference or goals scored. Just sayin.
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March going to be a big month I think. As it stands we have Wolves, Newcastle, Sheffield United and then after the international break Fulham at home.
So often in the past it would fizzle out for us in that March under MON but big chance to get a couple of wins and really be close or in the top 6.
Get the feeling though if Spurs go out of the cup this week premier league will step in and cancel Sheffield United game and get us playing Spurs instead.
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They won't do that, but we might be able to play Tottenham on that date anyway as Sheffield United may still be in the cup.
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Think it'll be as we are in Feb with 4 or 5 points from the next 3, then move up the table in March to mid April with the (on paper) easier run of fixtures before falling away to 7th or 8th during the tough run-in lamenting what might have been despite it being a good season.
Obviously hope I'm being unduly pessimistic though. :)
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Looking at the table now. We have 2 games in hand , home to Spurs and home to Everton. If we got 3 points from those we would be 5th, ahead of both of them and ahead of West Ham on goal diff and and Chelsea on goal difference or goals scored. Just sayin.
Exactly! Shouldn't be hounded on the initial thread when the maths say its eminently possible for 4th. Those who take umbridge with such thrill seeking and dare to dreamers should just stay out of thread rather than polute with there own irritations perspective dampening enthusiasm of those who readily accept that maybe it won't happen but heck why not discuss the probabilities and maths in Villa.
I say re instate to race for Europe as a compromise !
For if we do find ourselves in 4th or 5th come April watch the bandwagon roll in . More having cake and eating it about complaining about us optimists by those who don't allow us a view which is different to their own till it fits the agenda !
Up the Villa
If you want people to stay off this thread, maybe you could the same with the Jack Grealish thread then?
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I just looked through the remaining fixtures and got about 28 points. Which would be 63. That may or may not be enough for Europe, but will be good enough for top half.
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If we improve to the stage that we are in contention for the top four, it will prove that the name change was right as it will have shown itself to be lucky.
Villa record under old thread title:
Won 2, Drew 0, Lost 4. Points per game: 1
(also eliminated from FA Cup)
Villa record under new thread title:
Won 1, Drew 0, Lost 0. Points per game: 3
🙂
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I just looked through the remaining fixtures and got about 28 points. Which would be 63. That may or may not be enough for Europe, but will be good enough for top half.
It's easily good enough for top half. We finished in 6th on 60 points in 07/08 and then 62 points a year later so I reckon that sort of haul would get 7th.
We actually only got 63 points in 95/96 so 65 points could be a target as that would represent our best points haul after 38 games for a long time.
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I changed the thread title as I didn't want to have my name changed to Jonah. But I'm very happy for all optimists to post their what if scenarios on here.
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Final table if everyone keeps clocking up points at their current rate ...
1. Manchester City - 86pts
2. Manchester United - 74pts
3. Leicester City - 71pts
4. Everton - 67pts
5. Liverpool - 66pts
6. Chelsea - 64pts
7. West Ham Utd - 64pts
8. Aston Villa - 63pts
9. Spurs - 62pts
10. Leeds Utd - 55pts
11. Arsenal - 51pts
12. Soton - 50pts
13. Crystal Palace - 48pts
14. Wolves - 44pts
15. Brighton - 41pts
16. Newcastle - 41pts
17. Burnley - 39pts
18. Fulham - 26pts
19. WBA - 20pts
20. Sheff Utd - 18pts
There ain't a whole lot of points separating 4th place from 9th. Can see us scraping in to Europe, provided we can stay injury free and we get on a bit of a run.
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Final table if everyone keeps clocking up points at their current rate ...
1. Manchester City - 86pts
2. Manchester United - 74pts
3. Leicester City - 71pts
4. Everton - 67pts
5. Liverpool - 66pts
6. Chelsea - 64pts
7. West Ham Utd - 64pts
8. Aston Villa - 63pts
9. Spurs - 62pts
10. Leeds Utd - 55pts
11. Arsenal - 51pts
12. Soton - 50pts
13. Crystal Palace - 48pts
14. Wolves - 44pts
15. Brighton - 41pts
16. Newcastle - 41pts
17. Burnley - 39pts
18. Fulham - 26pts
19. WBA - 20pts
20. Sheff Utd - 18pts
There ain't a whole lot of points separating 4th place from 9th. Can see us scraping in to Europe, provided we can stay injury free and we get on a bit of a run.
The double headers against Spurs and Everton are real 6 pointers !
Plus games in Feb vs Leeds (keep them in their place and get revenge) and Leicester (drag them back into it) are very important too. Having Wesley back in the next few weeks could be really important to give us an option to mix it up in the last 15 minutes to get extra points.
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We could do with Man City beating Spurs in the League Cup Final, and someone who finishes above us winning the FA Cup, too.
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Whats the lowest down the table that a spot in Europe could be won, 8th? And what about this new Europa League Vauxhall Conference competition they're introducing...do we get that for being top half ?
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Whats the lowest down the table that a spot in Europe could be won, 8th? And what about this new Europa League Vauxhall Conference competition they're introducing...do we get that for being top half ?
Looking at this: https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0263-10c848fb43cc-49ac1262ab7c-1000/access_list_2021-22_final.pdf?iv=true
I might be wrong, but I've taken it as there's basically the same number of spots as before. Top 4 go in to the Champions League (CH, N2, N3, N4), the cup winners & 5th place go in to Europa League (CW, N5), and the 6th placed team goes in to the Europa Vauxhall Conference (N6). although presumably one of those N5/N6 pair will be the league cup winners (N6?)
So 7th is the absolute lowest place you could get away with, if both cups were won by teams in the top 6.
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If........we win our two games in hand vs spuds and toffees we would be 4th... no ? Therefore 2nd to 9th is achievable and I see no reason to give up on 2nd just yet.
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Is this just a revamped Inter Toto?
Toto you say ?
I hear the drums echoing tonight
But she hears only whispers of some quiet conversation
She's coming in, 12:30 flight
The moonlit wings reflect the stars that guide me towards salvation
I stopped an old man along the way
Hoping to find some old forgotten words or ancient melodies
He turned to me as if to say, "Hurry boy, it's waiting there for you"
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
The wild dogs cry out in the night
As they grow restless, longing for some solitary company
I know that I must do what's right
As sure as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti
I seek to cure what's deep inside, frightened of this thing that I've become
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
Hurry boy, she's waiting there for you
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
I bless the rains down in Africa
(I bless the rain)
I bless the rains down in Africa (I bless the rain)
I bless the rains down in Africa
I bless the rains down in Africa (ah, gonna take the time)
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
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The double headers against Spurs and Everton are real 6 pointers !
6 pointers vs Spurs and Everton instead of the likes of Bournemouth, Watford, Brighton or Norwich. What a difference a year makes.
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Is this just a revamped Inter Toto?
Toto you say ?
I hear the drums echoing tonight
But she hears only whispers of some quiet conversation
She's coming in, 12:30 flight
The moonlit wings reflect the stars that guide me towards salvation
I stopped an old man along the way
Hoping to find some old forgotten words or ancient melodies
He turned to me as if to say, "Hurry boy, it's waiting there for you"
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
The wild dogs cry out in the night
As they grow restless, longing for some solitary company
I know that I must do what's right
As sure as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti
I seek to cure what's deep inside, frightened of this thing that I've become
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
Hurry boy, she's waiting there for you
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
I bless the rains down in Africa
(I bless the rain)
I bless the rains down in Africa (I bless the rain)
I bless the rains down in Africa
I bless the rains down in Africa (ah, gonna take the time)
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
Mods!! This ought to be worth a warning. In fact it ought to be worth a trial at the Hague.
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We could do with Man City beating Spurs in the League Cup Final, and someone who finishes above us winning the FA Cup, too.
Hmm reminds me of 2008 when we finished 6th but had to do the Intertoto route (and lost Bouma) due to Spurs deciding to win their only trophy in 20 years by beating Chelsea in LC final and then Portsmouth randomly won the FA cup.
Has any club in recent times finished 6th and not made europa? It's happened to us twice in in last 20 years as we also missed out in 2004 as Millwall made FA cup final that year.
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Thanks for clarification. I won't quote any song lyrics but suffice to say it isn't a revamped Intertoto, more an even less celebrated Europa League. I guess when we haven't been anywhere near Europe in a decade it is a bit churlish to complain but the Europa Conference League hardly sets the pulse racing. Although it may provide some opportunities to take the road less travelled. The final is in Tirana for example!
-
So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Is this just a revamped Inter Toto?
Toto you say ?
I hear the drums echoing tonight
But she hears only whispers of some quiet conversation
She's coming in, 12:30 flight
The moonlit wings reflect the stars that guide me towards salvation
I stopped an old man along the way
Hoping to find some old forgotten words or ancient melodies
He turned to me as if to say, "Hurry boy, it's waiting there for you"
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
The wild dogs cry out in the night
As they grow restless, longing for some solitary company
I know that I must do what's right
As sure as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti
I seek to cure what's deep inside, frightened of this thing that I've become
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
Hurry boy, she's waiting there for you
It's gonna take a lot to drag me away from you
There's nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
I bless the rains down in Africa
(I bless the rain)
I bless the rains down in Africa (I bless the rain)
I bless the rains down in Africa
I bless the rains down in Africa (ah, gonna take the time)
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had (ooh, ooh)
Mods!! This ought to be worth a warning. In fact it ought to be worth a trial at the Hague.
No need for a Trial, hes guilty, Stone him.
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I was hoping for a Footy-Vill transcription of the lyrics with Villa references.
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I was hoping for a Footy-Vill transcription of the lyrics with Villa references.
FFFS no
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We could do with Man City beating Spurs in the League Cup Final, and someone who finishes above us winning the FA Cup, too.
Hmm reminds me of 2008 when we finished 6th but had to do the Intertoto route (and lost Bouma) due to Spurs deciding to win their only trophy in 20 years by beating Chelsea in LC final and then Portsmouth randomly won the FA cup.
Has any club in recent times finished 6th and not made europa? It's happened to us twice in in last 20 years as we also missed out in 2004 as Millwall made FA cup final that year.
Not only that, the first losing finalists to not get the spot as Arsenal were in the CL after they changed the rules, the very rule that had denied us at Millwall's expense, as you pointed out.
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Thanks for clarification. I won't quote any song lyrics but suffice to say it isn't a revamped Intertoto, more an even less celebrated Europa League. I guess when we haven't been anywhere near Europe in a decade it is a bit churlish to complain but the Europa Conference League hardly sets the pulse racing. Although it may provide some opportunities to take the road less travelled. The final is in Tirana for example!
Oh Tirana, that scans nicely onto song lyrics I’d think. Anyway I assume they’re going to get the old Cup Winners Cup trophy out rather than get a new one. They’ve been using the UEFA cup for the Europa League so as the minor tournament it would make sense with a nod to history.
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Thanks for clarification. I won't quote any song lyrics but suffice to say it isn't a revamped Intertoto, more an even less celebrated Europa League. I guess when we haven't been anywhere near Europe in a decade it is a bit churlish to complain but the Europa Conference League hardly sets the pulse racing. Although it may provide some opportunities to take the road less travelled. The final is in Tirana for example!
Basically it's 3 identical competitions. 4 qualifying rounds, then 8 groups of 4, followed by 4 more knockout rounds. If you get knocked out before the last set of knockout rounds you go in to the competition below.
So say you're in the Champions League qualifying playoff - if you lose, you drop down to the Europa League group stages. If you finish 3rd in your group in that, you drop down to the 1st knockout round of the Europa Conference.
-
So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Thanks for clarification. I won't quote any song lyrics but suffice to say it isn't a revamped Intertoto, more an even less celebrated Europa League. I guess when we haven't been anywhere near Europe in a decade it is a bit churlish to complain but the Europa Conference League hardly sets the pulse racing. Although it may provide some opportunities to take the road less travelled. The final is in Tirana for example!
Basically it's 3 identical competitions. 4 qualifying rounds, then 8 groups of 4, followed by 4 more knockout rounds. If you get knocked out before the last set of knockout rounds you go in to the competition below.
So say you're in the Champions League qualifying playoff - if you lose, you drop down to the Europa League group stages. If you finish 3rd in your group in that, you drop down to the 1st knockout round of the Europa Conference.
I get really annoyed that having finished 6th you’ve got to play off to get in the group stages!! For an English or Spanish club that’s not fair as to be honest how hard is it to finish runner up in the Albanian top flight or 6th in the Premier League?
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I was hoping for a Footy-Vill transcription of the lyrics with Villa references.
FFFS no
Think he's working on a Villa version of Paradise Lost which will be followed by Paradise Regain'd covering the NSWE ownership. It's going to be like, epic and so awesome!
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So if we get the lowest ranked European spot we wouldn't even be in the Europa League, we'd be in the new one. Is that right?
Yes.
Thanks for clarification. I won't quote any song lyrics but suffice to say it isn't a revamped Intertoto, more an even less celebrated Europa League. I guess when we haven't been anywhere near Europe in a decade it is a bit churlish to complain but the Europa Conference League hardly sets the pulse racing. Although it may provide some opportunities to take the road less travelled. The final is in Tirana for example!
Basically it's 3 identical competitions. 4 qualifying rounds, then 8 groups of 4, followed by 4 more knockout rounds. If you get knocked out before the last set of knockout rounds you go in to the competition below.
So say you're in the Champions League qualifying playoff - if you lose, you drop down to the Europa League group stages. If you finish 3rd in your group in that, you drop down to the 1st knockout round of the Europa Conference.
They're basically trying to create a European Super League to stop the rich clubs going off and creating a European Super League.
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We could do with Man City beating Spurs in the League Cup Final, and someone who finishes above us winning the FA Cup, too.
Hmm reminds me of 2008 when we finished 6th but had to do the Intertoto route (and lost Bouma) due to Spurs deciding to win their only trophy in 20 years by beating Chelsea in LC final and then Portsmouth randomly won the FA cup.
Has any club in recent times finished 6th and not made europa? It's happened to us twice in in last 20 years as we also missed out in 2004 as Millwall made FA cup final that year.
Not only that, the first losing finalists to not get the spot as Arsenal were in the CL after they changed the rules, the very rule that had denied us at Millwall's expense, as you pointed out.
Plus every time a team is banned from Europe, their spot goes to the next team down. So we should have been in the European Cup in 1990/91 as Liverpool were still banned. But no, we got punted down into the UEFA. Then we had to lose the advantage of playing the second leg against Inter at home because those poxy no marks don't have their own ground and it clashed with an AC game.
Harrumph.
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We could do with Man City beating Spurs in the League Cup Final, and someone who finishes above us winning the FA Cup, too.
Hmm reminds me of 2008 when we finished 6th but had to do the Intertoto route (and lost Bouma) due to Spurs deciding to win their only trophy in 20 years by beating Chelsea in LC final and then Portsmouth randomly won the FA cup.
Has any club in recent times finished 6th and not made europa? It's happened to us twice in in last 20 years as we also missed out in 2004 as Millwall made FA cup final that year.
Not only that, the first losing finalists to not get the spot as Arsenal were in the CL after they changed the rules, the very rule that had denied us at Millwall's expense, as you pointed out.
Plus every time a team is banned from Europe, their spot goes to the next team down. So we should have been in the European Cup in 1990/91 as Liverpool were still banned. But no, we got punted down into the UEFA. Then we had to lose the advantage of playing the second leg against Inter at home because those poxy no marks don't have their own ground and it clashed with an AC game.
Harrumph.
Don't get me started on that game - still the most upset I've ever been about a football match (I was a small child at the time!) but to this day no one will convince that ball wasn't over the sodding line before the cross came in!
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From memory, at least two of their goals were dodgy as fuck. Possibly all three. I was also a child, and devastated. I was convinced we were going to win the cup after the first leg.
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We could do with Man City beating Spurs in the League Cup Final, and someone who finishes above us winning the FA Cup, too.
Hmm reminds me of 2008 when we finished 6th but had to do the Intertoto route (and lost Bouma) due to Spurs deciding to win their only trophy in 20 years by beating Chelsea in LC final and then Portsmouth randomly won the FA cup.
Has any club in recent times finished 6th and not made europa? It's happened to us twice in in last 20 years as we also missed out in 2004 as Millwall made FA cup final that year.
Not only that, the first losing finalists to not get the spot as Arsenal were in the CL after they changed the rules, the very rule that had denied us at Millwall's expense, as you pointed out.
Probably just as well we didn't qualify for Europe in 2015, as it might have adversely impacted upon out League form the next season....
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Was there actually any room for things to get worse?
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What's the latest mental airthmetic to finish above Liverpool out of interest?
They're on 40 points with only 14 games left so they don't look likely to get close to 70 points currently.
Alisson + Ozan + Joleon Lescott out of retirement = ?
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What's the latest mental airthmetic to finish above Liverpool out of interest?
They're on 40 points with only 14 games left so they don't look likely to get close to 70 points currently.
Alisson + Ozan + Joleon Lescott out of retirement = ?
Based on their current average points per game, them & us will finish dead level on 63pts.
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Win the two games in hand and then match their results then we are two points ahead
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We won't win our games in hand playing like we currently are.
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Don’t matter what other teams do unless we go on a winning run, lose tomorrow and you can close this thread rather than rename it.
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And matters not a jot if we don’t win a significant number of games and turn our form around.
Everything else is semantics.
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I agree. Looking at the table we have to win. Puts us 'amongst it'. A loss = require snookers
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Looking forward to the next 2 with excitement as they are actually some hope with Liverpool poor home form and Man city resting and rotating their team a few days before the cup final.
The results this weekend weren't too bad for us so far and with the game in hand there is possibility mathematically.
And now starting dreaming again of a top 4 .
7 pts off Chelsea with a game in hand and to play them.
Also depending on permutations 7th place can take European spot. So all to play for.
And to finish top half and higher than last season is already looking likely.
Plenty of shock results to come. So who knows.
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Looking forward to the next 2 with excitement as they are actually some hope with Liverpool poor home form and Man city resting and rotating their team a few days before the cup final.
The results this weekend weren't too bad for us so far and with the game in hand there is possibility mathematically.
And now starting dreaming again of a top 4 .
7 pts off Chelsea with a game in hand and to play them.
Also depending on permutations 7th place can take European spot. So all to play for.
And to finish top half and higher than last season is already looking likely.
Plenty of shock results to come. So who knows.
I know it's a bank holiday weekend but I think you've drunk enough!
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>>Like<<
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Wins against Newcastle and Sheffield Utd and we would be 2 points of 4 th with a game in hand.
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I'm sure every team in the league (except man city) could look at games they drew or lost and talk about "what if" scenarios.
It's what we do in the remaining games that count.
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>>Like<<
How pathetic.
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When are they going to announce the date of the Everton game?
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Must admit I’m puzzled about this Everton game, why the delay?
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According to the boffins at 538 we'll finish 10th on 54 pts. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
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Think 8th is our limit looking at the table and considering our run in. If Jack is out for much longer I can see us finishing bottom half which would be a shame after how we've done so far.
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If Grealish comes back soon and plays brilliantly, top four is still a possibility, and I reckon top eight a probability.
If he doesn't, we will finish tenth or eleventh.
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If Grealish comes back soon and plays brilliantly, top four is still a possibility, and I reckon top eight a probability.
If he doesn't, we will finish tenth or eleventh.
I can't see us making up 8 points on Chelsea in 9 matches. On top of that, to finish 4th we'd also have to better both Spurs and Liverpool in the run in by 6 points.
It ain't happening.
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Win at Liverpool and anything is possible, if Grealish is back. Anything else and it would be 7th or 8th at best, I think.
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Says it all we have 3rd best defence in the league but are very likely to be 11th by close of play tomorrow evening.
Simply have to get in a better quality of attacker in the summer as we simply don't score enough goals with what we currently have to be genuine top 7 prospects next season imo.
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Not sure it's the attacker that's the problem - he's on track for 15 league goals this season which is a good return at the best of times, let alone for someone in their first top flight season.
The issue is behind him. Because we play with one up front we need chances and goals from midfield but we're not creative enough, especially when we lose Jack for a third of the season.
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I dont think SHQ is knocking Ollie, more than there's only Ollie and Jack who are reliable. Even Ollie has periods where he doesn't score for a run of games.
Another quality forward and winger to rotate in or play all 4 when fit, would make a huge difference.
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I just think that in a system where we only have 1 up front, expecting that striker (or strikers if the workload is shared) to get north of 20 goals in a season is almost always the preserve of the top 4. So Ollie's doing about as well as can be expected - if we brought someone else in to rotate, or Wesley comes back firing, it's only going to take chances and goals away from Ollie so we're no better off.
Smith either needs to change the system so we can have two strikers on the field together more often or push the midfield further forward (and bring in players capable of doing that).
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one up front works if you have one good attacking midfielder, and one box to box player who gets in the box... we've got neither of those in our current system.
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Smith either needs to change the system so we can have two strikers on the field together more often or push the midfield further forward (and bring in players capable of doing that).
don’t hold your breath
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How many points do folks think we'll end up with? I'm going with 52. Good enough for a top half finish most seasons recently but not last season and maybe not this.
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54.
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When you look at Spurs they likely won't finish top 6. However their front 3 in terms of league goals currently stands at
Kane- 19 goals
Son- 14 goals
Then you have likes of Lucas Moura and Bale with goal returns similar to AEG and Traore.
We either need to get in a striker who can score regularly as sub if they get regular 20-30 minute cameos (no certainty with DS) or a wide player who can hit double figures in a season as Ashley Young used to do.
When you think back to those times Carew and Gabby would usually get to double figures in the league and Young and Milner would be pretty close due to rotating on penalties so that is the firepower you need to finish 6th.
One short term move might be to just get Jack on penalties as he'd get 10 + no problem.
We also lack a Soucek type midfielder aswell who can chip in, 9 league goals this season. McGinn never looks a threat at scoring now which is disappointing compared to 2 years ago.
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I would say the wing is easily our weakest area. Get 2 good wingers and someone good in the Barkley role and we can really compete next season.
Oh and keep Grealish obviously.
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I would say the wing is easily our weakest area. Get 2 good wingers and someone good in the Barkley role and we can really compete next season.
Oh and keep Grealish obviously.
Central midfield is our weakest area.
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How many points do folks think we'll end up with? I'm going with 52. Good enough for a top half finish most seasons recently but not last season and maybe not this.
We are averaging a point a game currently, so 52 about right.
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that's a 38 point season - relegation battle form.