Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Dogtanian on August 01, 2019, 01:23:20 PM
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Having been told by every man and his dog that we are going straight back down, I thought I would do a bit of digging and discovered the following three interesting facts.
1. The newly promoted side who spends least after promotion is the most likely to be relegated.
In the last 15 years, the newly promoted team who spent the least out of the three was relegated 12 times. The newly promoted side who spent most out of the three was only relegated twice in that period. The team who spent the middle amount went straight back down on four occasions.
2. Getting up via the playoffs makes no difference to your survival chances.
Of the last 15 sides to get promoted via the playoffs, ten have gone straight back down. Seven of those teams were the lowest spending of the newly promoted sides and fell foul of point 1. Of the other three, two spent the middle amount and only Fulham spent the most. This shows that whether you get up via automatic or playoffs, it's not as important as how you invest in your squad.
3. Newly promoted teams have to spend more than average to stay up.
Sounds common sense, but it doesn't always happen. Over the last 15 years, newly promoted sides that went straight back down had a below average net spend that season compared to the Premier league average. The average net spend of the 19 clubs to be relegated straight back down in the last 15 years was around 97% of the average net spend per club that year in the Premier league. Those newly promoted sides that survived their first season spent an average of 175% of the average net spend per club that season.
All this shows that Fulham were actually an anomaly and Villa are doing the right thing to stay in the Premier league.
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I have to say that is a very good first post. Welcome!
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Just amended the title a little as when I first saw the thread I thought it was going to be a bit of a dig from one of our lesser, inferior local unrivals. Great post, though.
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Great post - welcome :-)
I thought the same Leeg, my knuckle dragger radar was in overdrive!
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And a great profile name. Welcome!
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I enjoyed the fact that dogtanian has been doing a little digging.
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I enjoyed the fact that dogtanian has been doing a little digging.
Any excuse to revel in some childhood nostalgia.
https://youtu.be/P-xO72s5EBY
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Cheers everyone!
Some of my Villa shirts have DOGTANIAN on the back and now and then I hear someone behind me start humming the theme tune ;D ;D ;D
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Welcome Dogtanian. Great first post. Regards to Athos and Porthos.
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It’s amazing how many rival fans who said a few months ago;
“Villa aren’t ready for promotion, their squad isn’t good enough”
are now saying (13 new signings later);
“ Villa have signed too many players, they’re doing a Fulham “.
I’m sick of hearing the word ‘Fulham’ and just looking forward to letting our football do the talking.
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The Villa haters would have loved to see us banking on Cafu, Elphick, Taylor, Hogan, Whelan, Lansbury, Birkir and McCormack keeping us in the Premiership.
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thank fuck we are not. This could easily be a mid-table squad.
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thank fuck we are not. This could easily be a mid-table squad.
Why the pessimism ?!
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Dogtanian thank you and welcome. Very good info and fills me with confidence as it looks as though we are hitting/avoiding all 3.
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Having been told by every man and his dog that we are going straight back down, I thought I would do a bit of digging and discovered the following three interesting facts.
1. The newly promoted side who spends least after promotion is the most likely to be relegated.
In the last 15 years, the newly promoted team who spent the least out of the three was relegated 12 times. The newly promoted side who spent most out of the three was only relegated twice in that period. The team who spent the middle amount went straight back down on four occasions.
2. Getting up via the playoffs makes no difference to your survival chances.
Of the last 15 sides to get promoted via the playoffs, ten have gone straight back down. Seven of those teams were the lowest spending of the newly promoted sides and fell foul of point 1. Of the other three, two spent the middle amount and only Fulham spent the most. This shows that whether you get up via automatic or playoffs, it's not as important as how you invest in your squad.
3. Newly promoted teams have to spend more than average to stay up.
Sounds common sense, but it doesn't always happen. Over the last 15 years, newly promoted sides that went straight back down had a below average net spend that season compared to the Premier league average. The average net spend of the 19 clubs to be relegated straight back down in the last 15 years was around 97% of the average net spend per club that year in the Premier league. Those newly promoted sides that survived their first season spent an average of 175% of the average net spend per club that season.
All this shows that Fulham were actually an anomaly and Villa are doing the right thing to stay in the Premier league.
Nice post.
I'm going to be disappointed if every post isn't made with three points now.
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Cheers everyone!
Some of my Villa shirts have DOGTANIAN on the back and now and then I hear someone behind me start humming the theme tune ;D ;D ;D
😂 Welcome mate.
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Good post which supports the fact that the Fulham comparison has only ever been a lazy one or an optimistic one from those who desperately want to see us fail. We may succeed, we may fail, it's got fuck all to do with what Fulham did.
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Good stats there.
In order to get a foothold, teams do need to spend more than usual as the players they had in the Championship are generally weaker. The problem they usually have is that they don't have the resources to compete with the other clubs as they haven't had the TV money. Also teams promoted via the play offs are often necessarily behind the rest in planning as they don't know which division they'll be in.
Thus far, only Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus have spent more than us so that's huge testament to the owners' commitment.
I actually haven't heard a lot of people, whether other fans, journalists etc predicting that we are going straight back down. Most have the other 2 promoted teams in their list along with Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle.
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Great post Dogtanian some spot on research. People making the comparison with Fulham are secretly hoping we get relegated.
1. Ours isn't a vanity project by our owners and backroom staff. It's a thought out process of replacing the 14 players going out the door with younger more talented players with bags of potential.
2. We are Aston Villa not Fulham.
3. Fuck em all.
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thank fuck we are not. This could easily be a mid-table squad.
Newcastle finished 10th last season. Go and have a look at their squad and tell me if you'd swap it for ours? We've got so much competition for places now we can actually afford to have a few of the new players not hit the ground running at 100% (except maybe Wesley). I think you could pick what you think should be the first choice 11 for Spurs, and you could easily get it wrong by four or five players, given the quality Dean now has available to him. I think mid-table should be the absolute minimum now. I'm sure that's the expectation inside the club.
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Great first post Dogtanian I, like previous posters, was expecting some jealous drivel from our nearest and dearest neighbours. So I was relived and surprised by such an informative post. Thanks UTV
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Very good post Dogtanian, the Fulham comparison has really grinded my gears this summer, that'll teach me for catching some Talksport.
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Having been told by every man and his dog that we are going straight back down, I thought I would do a bit of digging and discovered the following three interesting facts.
1. The newly promoted side who spends least after promotion is the most likely to be relegated.
In the last 15 years, the newly promoted team who spent the least out of the three was relegated 12 times. The newly promoted side who spent most out of the three was only relegated twice in that period. The team who spent the middle amount went straight back down on four occasions.
2. Getting up via the playoffs makes no difference to your survival chances.
Of the last 15 sides to get promoted via the playoffs, ten have gone straight back down. Seven of those teams were the lowest spending of the newly promoted sides and fell foul of point 1. Of the other three, two spent the middle amount and only Fulham spent the most. This shows that whether you get up via automatic or playoffs, it's not as important as how you invest in your squad.
3. Newly promoted teams have to spend more than average to stay up.
Sounds common sense, but it doesn't always happen. Over the last 15 years, newly promoted sides that went straight back down had a below average net spend that season compared to the Premier league average. The average net spend of the 19 clubs to be relegated straight back down in the last 15 years was around 97% of the average net spend per club that year in the Premier league. Those newly promoted sides that survived their first season spent an average of 175% of the average net spend per club that season.
All this shows that Fulham were actually an anomaly and Villa are doing the right thing to stay in the Premier league.
Nice post.
I'm going to be disappointed if every post isn't made with three points now.
I'm going to be disappointed if every game doesn't come with three points at the end now.
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Three pints of Old Peculier on the bar at the Bartons will do for starters.
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Any excuse to revel in some childhood nostalgia.
https://youtu.be/P-xO72s5EBY
Fucking ace!
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Great first post Dogtanian!
This 'will Villa do a Fulham?' shite is getting tiresome.
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It is. We're not going to 'do a Fulham'. For that matter, we're not going to 'do a Man City', either. We've stabilised, consolidated and strengthened. The middle ground will do nicely.
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We are in with a bit of a shout of being as good as Leicester or the Dogheads.
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My 3 for the drop are
18 Sheff Utd. ( but I hope not )
19 Newcastle
20. Brighton & HA
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Norwich
Newcastle (fingers crossed)
Brighton / Southampton / Bournemouth (certainly one of the south coast lot)
With scares for Sheff Utd, Palace, Burnley
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That Fulham comparison is just lazy, I’ll informed bollocks and used by clubs if other supporters that are shitting themselves about what a cashed up Villa could do,
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That Fulham comparison is just lazy, I’ll informed bollocks and used by clubs if other supporters that are shitting themselves about what a cashed up Villa could do,
This is an interesting read - all the highest spenders in Premiership history and where they finished
https://www.football365.com/news/the-biggest-spender-in-every-pl-season-and-how-they-fared-2
Some key notes
2003 Chelsea spend £120mil and finish 2nd (as much as us there or there abouts but 16 years ago!)
2004 they spend a further £90 mil - and win it
2008 - Man city - when their money tree was planted - £119 mil - finish 10th
2009 - they spend a further £125mil and finish 5th
2010 - a further £152 mil and finish 3rd
2013 - Spur spend £109mil and finish 6th
2014 - United spend £147 mil and finish 4th
It seems that Fulham was rather unique in the way they spunked the money and then got relegated. It also shows you to get up the league and then stay there you have to have an initial huge spend and then build from there.
This could be our start
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
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The trouble with Brian's comments re Dogtanian is that he doesn't know his Arthos from his elbow.
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The trouble with Brian's comments re Dogtanian is that he doesn't know his Arthos from his elbow.
There is nothing wrong with a bit of Puppy Power so long as you don't end up in the relegation Scrappy Doo Doo.
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Another 80s kids cartoon theme related username can only be good. I like the post too. I'm full of pre-season optimism, like always at this stage. The difference is that I think it's based on something tangible this time and not blind faith!
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
Also with a few Dogheads
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Nice to see Fulham doing a Fulham today.
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
Been loads of press articles about it and that Big Sam interview on Talksport.
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
Also with a few Dogheads
Used to be a decent bunch. Then they started slagging us off and saying mind the gap Aston Villa and I thought they must be obsessed Albion bogroll fans in disguise. Be a spicy fixture this season. And I feel less guilty about accidently breaking my seat at that orange bowel those years back when Robbie Keane did them in..
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
I may look at social media and read other teams forums more than I should, but #doingafulham is definitely a thing John. Also, every time Villa is discussed on TV and radio at the moment, Fulham is mentioned. Even the commentator on the Leipzig game couldn't resist mentioning the 'F' word yesterday.
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Predictions for the upcoming season from fans in the Guardian that starts off pretty bleak with 4 of the first 5 predicting we’ll do a Fulham (Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea) then it eases up (although a Newcastle fan obviously thinks we’ll go down).
Liverpool and Wolves fans have DS as first managerial sacking?!
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/04/premier-league-2019-20-fans-verdicts-arsenal-liverpool
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Predictions for the upcoming season from fans in the Guardian that starts off pretty bleak with 4 of the first 5 predicting we’ll do a Fulham (Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea) then it eases up (although a Newcastle fan obviously thinks we’ll go down).
Liverpool and Wolves fans have DS as first managerial sacking?!
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/04/premier-league-2019-20-fans-verdicts-arsenal-liverpool
It maybe belongs on another thread, and I feel ashamed to be in such strong agreement with a Chelsea fan, but his summation of VAR is absolutely spot on!
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Predictions for the upcoming season from fans in the Guardian that starts off pretty bleak with 4 of the first 5 predicting we’ll do a Fulham (Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea) then it eases up (although a Newcastle fan obviously thinks we’ll go down).
Liverpool and Wolves fans have DS as first managerial sacking?!
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/04/premier-league-2019-20-fans-verdicts-arsenal-liverpool
It maybe belongs on another thread, and I feel ashamed to be in such strong agreement with a Chelsea fan, but his summation of VAR is absolutely spot on!
Absolutely nailed the nonsense of VAR there.
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Liverpool and Wolves fans. Possibly the most irritating in the division. How I'd laugh if Klopp or the bloke from Wolves were to go first.
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Predictions for the upcoming season from fans in the Guardian that starts off pretty bleak with 4 of the first 5 predicting we’ll do a Fulham (Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea) then it eases up (although a Newcastle fan obviously thinks we’ll go down).
Liverpool and Wolves fans have DS as first managerial sacking?!
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/04/premier-league-2019-20-fans-verdicts-arsenal-liverpool
It maybe belongs on another thread, and I feel ashamed to be in such strong agreement with a Chelsea fan, but his summation of VAR is absolutely spot on!
Possibly (feel free to move if so) I thought it tied in with John E, Soccer HQ and Pete 3206 conversation/debate about the whole Fulham comparison and other fan's perception/prediction of us.
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Predictions for the upcoming season from fans in the Guardian that starts off pretty bleak with 4 of the first 5 predicting we’ll do a Fulham (Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea) then it eases up (although a Newcastle fan obviously thinks we’ll go down).
Liverpool and Wolves fans have DS as first managerial sacking?!
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/04/premier-league-2019-20-fans-verdicts-arsenal-liverpool
It maybe belongs on another thread, and I feel ashamed to be in such strong agreement with a Chelsea fan, but his summation of VAR is absolutely spot on!
Possibly (feel free to move if so) I thought it tied in with John E, Soccer HQ and Pete 3206 conversation/debate about the whole Fulham comparison and other fan's perception/prediction of us.
I meant my comment not your article!
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Predictions for the upcoming season from fans in the Guardian that starts off pretty bleak with 4 of the first 5 predicting we’ll do a Fulham (Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea) then it eases up (although a Newcastle fan obviously thinks we’ll go down).
Liverpool and Wolves fans have DS as first managerial sacking?!
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/04/premier-league-2019-20-fans-verdicts-arsenal-liverpool
It maybe belongs on another thread, and I feel ashamed to be in such strong agreement with a Chelsea fan, but his summation of VAR is absolutely spot on!
Possibly (feel free to move if so) I thought it tied in with John E, Soccer HQ and Pete 3206 conversation/debate about the whole Fulham comparison and other fan's perception/prediction of us.
I meant my comment not your article!
Ah sorry. Yeah I agree - agreeing with a Chelsea fan regardless of the subject deserves a thread of its own ;-)
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Inevitably the bitter Newcastle bell end has us finishing bottom.
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Quite a few predicting Deano will be sacked first...pretty sure they’ll be out of pocket if they put their money where their mouth is.
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Just read what the Villa guy wrote, pretty much on with what I think, I even had the same three going down. The Arsenal guy is being a bit optimistic....ditto Brighton fella.
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Just read what the Villa guy wrote, pretty much on with what I think, I even had the same three going down. The Arsenal guy is being a bit optimistic....ditto Brighton fella.
They use this Jonathan Pritchard guy every year. Anyone know him?
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Liverpool and Wolves fans. Possibly the most irritating in the division. How I'd laugh if Klopp or the bloke from Wolves were to go first.
I admire your sentiments but sadly I strongly believe that even if Klopp goes Liverpool fans will still be very irritating. I doubt they will suddenly change the habits of a lifetime.
I don't think we will go down and I think we will also avoid finishing in the bottom six. However, I do think we will struggle and have a bad run at some point and everyone will have to hold their nerve and not panic. Although we are an unknown quantity even to our own supporters at the moment I think we will have enough to finish above Brighton, Sheffield United, Norwich, Burnley, Palace and Newcastle. I also think this might be a season too far in the Premier League for Bournemouth.
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Who are the three favourites for the drop btw? I'd go with Norwich Brighton and maybe Newcastle
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Who are the three favourites for the drop btw? I'd go with Norwich Brighton and maybe Newcastle
Sheffield United 4/6
Norwich 10/11
Villa, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle 2/1
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
Been loads of press articles about it and that Big Sam interview on Talksport.
Getting the train home last night and 2 very pissed - and very friendly- Millwall fans sat next to me. Surprisingly knowledgeable about some of our new signings but it all went pear shaped when one of them asked me if I thought we’d do a Fulham. Then, as I got off the train, one of them said “ see you next season”.
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i may have come across the 'doing a Fulham' thing once or twice early on but i don't really think its a big thing going round
the only place i see it ever mentioned now is on here
Been loads of press articles about it and that Big Sam interview on Talksport.
Getting the train home last night and 2 very pissed - and very friendly- Millwall fans sat next to me. Surprisingly knowledgeable about some of our new signings but it all went pear shaped when one of them asked me if I thought we’d do a Fulham. Then, as I got off the train, one of them said “ see you next season”.
He is optimistic if he thinks Milwall will be promoted.
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Who are the three favourites for the drop btw? I'd go with Norwich Brighton and maybe Newcastle
Sheffield United 4/6
Norwich 10/11
Villa, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle 2/1
Finish above all that lot and I'll be happy as a clam.
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Who are the three favourites for the drop btw? I'd go with Norwich Brighton and maybe Newcastle
Sheffield United 4/6
Norwich 10/11
Villa, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle 2/1
Finish above all that lot and I'll be happy as a clam.
Basically the bookies are saying Sheffield United and Norwich will go down and the third relegation spot will be filled by Villa, Burnley, Brighton or Newcastle.
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I guess the best place to start is to explain how many points are needed to aim for to not be going straight back down. In very simple terms, let's say we are aiming at 35-38 points over the season. That's usually enough for an outside the bottom 3 finish.
My research source is
https://www.premierleague.com/news/1174821
"Premier league history has shown that since the league was cut to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points required to avoid the drop has been much lower than 40."
I've added last seasons points tally to include
the past 24 seasons, the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.5 points
So looking at the last 3 seasons without our beloved club in the premier league the points needed to be safe were
2018/19 34 pts
2017/18 34pts
2016/17 35pts
And in fact as you can see from the link it's not since 2002/3 season that over 40 pts was needed . That season 43 points needed to stay in league.
Alright then tackling the question: are we going straight back down?
If we say "no we will achieve 35 plus points"
How do we get them?
Well one example 9 wins and 9 draws from 38 matches gives us 36 points. This is what Brighton achieved to stay up last season.
Can Villa can get the minimum points total of 34 which would have kept a club in the Premier league the last 2 seasons?
As we all know we have 38 matches to play 19 home/19 away .
Well, assuming for a moment that we won't get any pts from top 4 fixtures (we probably will maybe ?? have a few pts but I'm just trying to explain the method)
8 of those games are against the top 4.
Say we write off 24pts. So that leaves 30 matches and 90pts where as a promoted club we have a reasonable chance of gaining some wins and picking up points
Villa need to be aiming at 1.1 to 1.2 pts per match in 15 home matches And 15 away matches. Reasonable right?!
The opening set of fixtures gives 3 of 5 matches at home . A great opportunity to pick up points and I feel despite many new squad players there is a momentum.
During this coming season We have 6 consecutive fixtures from 7th December to 1st Jan without a fixture against a top 6 side I feel this is especially a period to achieve as many points as we can.
Aside from those more agreeable fixtures as the season goes along, in general ,it also stands to reason that the closer opposition clubs are to the bottom of the league when Villa play them the better it is to defeat them. One could argue the easier it is too :D
Though this might seem obvious to state it's actually significant. I've read here on previous posts the listed teams that are expected to struggle and being aware of the likely teams that will be struggling and winning those games can only be a major help in not returning to championship football.
Finally, in my first contribution to the site , I like to say I have watched Villas football season after season and things have been roughly the same untill Dean Smith arrived.
This season there will be matches that surprise the wider public , maybe even us supporters and followers. I can pretty much count on it with the way Dean Smith intends to compete. And at the same time, predictable results will happen. Now, that doesn't matter because we aren't seeing the predictable football and I really think The Smith Villa era is something that will continue to bring footy joy.
In my view, Dean Smith has built a competitive squad which I think can achieve 35pts and then some!!
Allez Allez Allez
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Great first post and great username. Welcome mate.
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Who are the three favourites for the drop btw? I'd go with Norwich Brighton and maybe Newcastle
I have to stick with my analysis and say that Norwich will go down as the lowest spending newly promoted team. Which is a shame as I think they are being very sensible and will be in a much better financial position if they do go down to come straight back up and be able to invest.
After that, I think Sheffield may go down as the mid-spending newly promoted team has been relegated just under a third of times in the last fifteen years.
Of non-newly promoted sides relegated from the Prem in the last ten years, approximately 90% of them had an average net spend per season less than 60% of the Premier league average over the previous 5 seasons. This season ( though the window is yet to close ) that includes;
Watford - 59.4%
Palace - 46.4%
Burnley - 33.7%
Southampton - 15.1%
I think any of those could go down this season. I've excluded Spurs who regularly overachieve compared to their net spend which has been skewed by high value sales and their success in youth development.
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38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.
Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).
My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.
Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.
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38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.
Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).
My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.
Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.
Bold bit, Smith has never had the sort of squad depth we have this season.
I think we'll get about 50 points and finish 9-12 and never look in any danger.
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We've got one 'tricky' run all season, from what I can see, Man City last game of October through to Leicester second game of December. But even that includes Newcastle and Wolves. I really don't see any long winless runs.
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The end of the season looks pretty tough. I wanna be mathematically safe by the end of April, pretty please!
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https://www.thestatszone.com/football/english-premier-league/premier-league-2019-20-tottenham-vs-aston-villa-preview-prediction-72577 (https://www.thestatszone.com/football/english-premier-league/premier-league-2019-20-tottenham-vs-aston-villa-preview-prediction-72577)
::)
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Jesus what a load of ill informed shite. Spurs well rested and raring to go? Numerous parallels with Fulham? (name one besides ‘spent lots of money’). Twats.
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They list 7 Spurs players as injured with one of their best players suspended and they've just had a gruelling money spinner of a pre season, yet they're well rested?.
If they get any less than 3 points on Saturday, I guarantee their manager will blame injury and fatigue
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I had been wondering what Mark "Lawro" Lawrenson was up to these days.
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38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.
Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).
My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.
Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.
Bold bit, Smith has never had the sort of squad depth we have this season.
I think we'll get about 50 points and finish 9-12 and never look in any danger.
He hasn't but last season we had that winless run from middle of December up to March. Yes Jack was out but we still had Tammy and McGinn playing in majority of those.
It's a little bit like the John Gregory era when we'd always have one very dodgy part of a season when we wouldn't win for ages and then out of nowhere things would click back into place, can see the same happening this year.
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A great first post !!
I think we should hopefully be good enough, especially at home, to get 40 points. A good start (by that I mean Bounemouth) will be a massive bonus.
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38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.
Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).
My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.
Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.
Bold bit, Smith has never had the sort of squad depth we have this season.
I think we'll get about 50 points and finish 9-12 and never look in any danger.
He hasn't but last season we had that winless run from middle of December up to March. Yes Jack was out but we still had Tammy and McGinn playing in majority of those.
It's a little bit like the John Gregory era when we'd always have one very dodgy part of a season when we wouldn't win for ages and then out of nowhere things would click back into place, can see the same happening this year.
We had that little bad spell but that was due to a number of problems caused by the complete lack of fit defenders in the squad and then the need to ease the new guys in. It might happen again and, as you say Smith's teams have had problems before, but having a deeper squad with 2-3 quality options in most positions is the best way to plan for dips in form so I don't think we should assume it will happen next year.
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I put last seasons “dip” purely down to the simple fact that our team (particularly midfield) was a bit shit without Jack, and it’s no coincidence that the up turn in our form coincided with Jack returning from injury. Hopefully we’ll be more resilient this season with more strength in depth, but we still don’t have anyone similar to Jack...unless Jota can fill that role.
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The only one concern for me is up front. If Wesley doesn’t hit the running or gets injured/suspended where are the goals coming from
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The dip last season wasn’t just about Grealish being out. Abraham was having doubts about whether he should stay or move somewhere else in January because he wasn’t happy. Chester was out of form as he was playing with an injury but we didn’t have anyone to swap him out for.
There may well be a dip or dips this season, it’s going to be an interesting season. We know we have the core of a decent team, we know we have a manager with the right attitude and desire to play attacking football.
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Good summary from Phil McNulty on BBC:
clicky (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/49236095)
Spoiler alert - predicts 14th, which feels fair.
Aston Villa
Last season - promoted
This season - 14th
If you had a pound for every time you heard "doing a Fulham"…
Fulham spent more than £100m losing their identity and their Premier League status last season and Villa's similarly expensive sweep of the transfer market has brought the same accusations.
Not from here - yes it is ambitious and contains risk but manager Dean Smith has also signed players he knows in the likes of Jota, Ezri Konsa and the likes of Tyrone Mings and Anwar El Ghazi, who were on loan last season.
Plenty of eyes will be on the likes of Wesley, Trezeguet and Douglas Luiz - but Villa have also secured one of the best deals of the summer in signing an experienced goalkeeper of quality in England's Tom Heaton from Burnley for only £8m.
Jack Grealish has Premier League quality and John McGinn can make a big impact.
A season of consolidation is in prospect at one of the great old clubs.