I can't see past a France win tonight. According to the bookies, Norway v England is the closest of the quarter-finals.
Spain vs Belgium, IMO. Spain aren't immune to an unexpected fuck up and Belgium have a bit of a team of destiny thing about them since the Senegal fuck-up/Trump ban intervention.
I still expect the top four seeds to progress but if there is going to be an upset, I'd say the Belgians are most likely to provide it.