Aston Villa v Bournemouth Post-Match Thread

[PaulWinch again]

Lovely stuff - my missed all of this as I was at a soft play thing with my kids. Terrific result.

[Olneythelonely]

Just seen the match stats and I'm not sure how our XG was lower than theirs. Ok they had a penalty but we could have had 5 or 6.

We played really well in the first half, but i do think we sat back too much for the first half the second half before sorting it all out again.

A penalty is about 0.9 on its own.

[PaulTheVillan]

Just seen the match stats and I'm not sure how our XG was lower than theirs. Ok they had a penalty but we could have had 5 or 6.

We played really well in the first half, but i do think we sat back too much for the first half the second half before sorting it all out again.

XG is aids.

[paul_e]

Just seen the match stats and I'm not sure how our XG was lower than theirs. Ok they had a penalty but we could have had 5 or 6.

We played really well in the first half, but i do think we sat back too much for the first half the second half before sorting it all out again.

because xG isn't designed to be used to judge an individual game, it's a probability thing but unless the underlying data is perfect the stat is never going to be accurate enough to encompass the whole match. Over longer periods though it balances out the quirks and you get data that is actually useful. Also worth noting that xG values the quality of the chance not the quality of the finish so a pretty poorly taken penalty that Emi saved easily is counted as being 10times "better" than Malen deflecting a shot into the opposite corner making it impossible for the keeper to get anywhere near it.

More than half of their xG came from the penalty and from Evanilson playing on when Smith and Adams poleaxed each other and the ref should've stopped play immediately. Given the first 2 players to check on them were Villa players that would've been contentious if he'd scored.

[PeterWithesShin]

Evanilson was given offside wasn't he?

[paul_e]

Just seen the match stats and I'm not sure how our XG was lower than theirs. Ok they had a penalty but we could have had 5 or 6.

We played really well in the first half, but i do think we sat back too much for the first half the second half before sorting it all out again.

A penalty is about 0.9 on its own.

0.79 because over years of data from all over the world penalty conversion rates (not including shootouts) is 79%.

[German James]

Just seen the match stats and I'm not sure how our XG was lower than theirs. Ok they had a penalty but we could have had 5 or 6.

We played really well in the first half, but i do think we sat back too much for the first half the second half before sorting it all out again.

XG is aids.

This.

[Ian.]

XG to the Bournemouth, XG to the Bournemouth, XG to the Bournemouth. You think it will catch on?

[PeterWithesShin]

As Paul says it's only over a period of time that xG becomes useful, for a single game it's just amusing to batter someone and yet have a lower xG.

[paul_e]

Evanilson was given offside wasn't he?

Not for that one I don't think, if I'm honest I wasn't really paying attention because of the injuries. Most important thing is he never should've been allowed to carry on because the ref should've stopped play immediately. That's a big part of why I was pissed off with the twat in the first half.

[Deano's Mullet]

The ref didn't want to book any of their players did he?

[paul_e]

The ref didn't want to book any of their players did he?

I just found how he was handling the game in general to be weird, each decision in isolation is probably fine but it leads to silly things like Truffert being booked for a bit of a nothing foul on the wing but then only getting a warning for a much worse one in the middle of the pitch later on. I wish they'd review the whole concept really because yellow cards are utterly meaningless right now until you get a 2nd one but that creates a weird situation where the offence to get a 2nd yellow has to be an 'orange' offence in a lot of cases so you get this weird inconsistency where yellow cards aren't all equal.

Add a sinbin and add the concept of a team booking, much like they do in rugby, and I think it'd work much better.

[PeterWithesShin]

As the song goes.

"Legion's on fire..." normal service is resumed.

[Stu82]

Just in case no one else mentions, Bogarde was ace in his cameo.

Agreed, he was excellent.
I thought all the subs were good, Barkley particularly.

[paul_e]

Bogarde is going to a top player in a year or 2, he looks so composed on the ball.