Winter 2025 Transfer Window - hopes, speculation, rumours etc.

[Smithy]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Wow did not know that rule smirker about before we came up. Thats pretty good then if your a new team coming up e.g ipswich

Dont think we would get much for mings though a si think he is 31 now

Mcginn would be one we might look at if his form doesnt improve.  But it does seem he is being played out of position

Sorry, if I wasn't clear, I was referring to the players that had been with us for 5 or so years (to around the time we came up), not that there is a rule about players being in your squad WHEN you get promoted.  No such rule exists.   It's all about when they were signed, and the contract length.

[Demitri_C]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Wow did not know that rule smirker about before we came up. Thats pretty good then if your a new team coming up e.g ipswich

Dont think we would get much for mings though a si think he is 31 now

Mcginn would be one we might look at if his form doesnt improve.  But it does seem he is being played out of position

Sorry, if I wasn't clear, I was referring to the players that had been with us for 5 or so years (to around the time we came up), not that there is a rule about players being in your squad WHEN you get promoted.  No such rule exists.   It's all about when they were signed, and the contract length.

No need to apologise mate thanks for explaining it something ive learned today!

[aj2k77]

Sky said we had a net spend of 70m which is peanuts compared to the other teams. We need to break bank and get mbeulo in. He is exactly what we need and a massive step up from philogene

I thought we broke-even, more or less in the summer.

My understanding - for what it’s worth - is that we would have broke even if the £40m sale of Duran to a West Ham had gone ahead. I’m probably wrong.

We signed him for £14m + add ons. 2 years ago. We'd only need to sell him for more than £7m to make a profit. I think he will be the next to go to balance the books should we be hampered by FFP again.

[Percy McCarthy]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Wow did not know that rule smirker about before we came up. Thats pretty good then if your a new team coming up e.g ipswich

Dont think we would get much for mings though a si think he is 31 now

Mcginn would be one we might look at if his form doesnt improve.  But it does seem he is being played out of position

Sorry, if I wasn't clear, I was referring to the players that had been with us for 5 or so years (to around the time we came up), not that there is a rule about players being in your squad WHEN you get promoted.  No such rule exists.   It's all about when they were signed, and the contract length.

No need to apologise mate thanks for explaining it something ive learned today!

You’ve learned it before mate. You’ve just forgotten.

But yeah, we’re in a fantastic FFP position regarding transfers. Which is just as well, as the club sees it as an easy way to boost revenue and therefore invest more in new players.

Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, McGinn, Watkins almost fully amortised. Slightly less so - Buendia, Bailey, Digne, Carlos. Actual pure profit - Kamara, Ramsey, Tielemans. Rogers and Duran have a negligible amount outstanding in comparison to tbeir actual value.

[Demitri_C]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Wow did not know that rule smirker about before we came up. Thats pretty good then if your a new team coming up e.g ipswich

Dont think we would get much for mings though a si think he is 31 now

Mcginn would be one we might look at if his form doesnt improve.  But it does seem he is being played out of position

Sorry, if I wasn't clear, I was referring to the players that had been with us for 5 or so years (to around the time we came up), not that there is a rule about players being in your squad WHEN you get promoted.  No such rule exists.   It's all about when they were signed, and the contract length.

No need to apologise mate thanks for explaining it something ive learned today!

You’ve learned it before mate. You’ve just forgotten.

But yeah, we’re in a fantastic FFP position regarding transfers. Which is just as well, as the club sees it as an easy way to boost revenue and therefore invest more in new players.

Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, McGinn, Watkins almost fully amortised. Slightly less so - Buendia, Bailey, Digne, Carlos. Actual pure profit - Kamara, Ramsey, Tielemans. Rogers and Duran have a negligible amount outstanding in comparison to tbeir actual value.

No i genuinely did not know the part about the championship players. Thats new info for me mate

[Percy McCarthy]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Wow did not know that rule smirker about before we came up. Thats pretty good then if your a new team coming up e.g ipswich

Dont think we would get much for mings though a si think he is 31 now

Mcginn would be one we might look at if his form doesnt improve.  But it does seem he is being played out of position

Sorry, if I wasn't clear, I was referring to the players that had been with us for 5 or so years (to around the time we came up), not that there is a rule about players being in your squad WHEN you get promoted.  No such rule exists.   It's all about when they were signed, and the contract length.

No need to apologise mate thanks for explaining it something ive learned today!

You’ve learned it before mate. You’ve just forgotten.

But yeah, we’re in a fantastic FFP position regarding transfers. Which is just as well, as the club sees it as an easy way to boost revenue and therefore invest more in new players.

Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, McGinn, Watkins almost fully amortised. Slightly less so - Buendia, Bailey, Digne, Carlos. Actual pure profit - Kamara, Ramsey, Tielemans. Rogers and Duran have a negligible amount outstanding in comparison to tbeir actual value.

No i genuinely did not know the part about the championship players. Thats new info for me mate

See? You’ve just (at 12.48pm) had it explained to you that it’s nothing to do with them being Championship players, and you’ve even forgotten that.

Anyway, amortisation has been explained and discussed at length in the relevant threads, and I’m pretty sure specifically explained to you.

[Percy McCarthy]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Smithy - it works like this. If we’d signed Mings for £25m on a five year contract, the fee would amortise at (£25m divided by 5 years) £5m a year. So, after two years that would leave £15m unamortised. If he then signed another five year-contract, the process would start again, and the fee would amortise at (£15m divided by 5 years) £3m a year. After two years of that, anything above £9m would be a profit in the accounts, anything under a loss. I’m pretty sure he has signed another contract since he joined, don’t know lengths of either of his contracts, or the timing of his second one, or his initial fee (for certain), hence the round figures for easy maths.

[Demitri_C]

McGinn, Duran, Ramsey, Rogers, Carlos, Cash, Mings. We would make profit on all of those.

There is absolutely no chance we're making a profit on Carlos or Mings.

You're forgetting how PSR works.  Tyrone signed in 2019, five years ago, and his transfer value is now fully amortised.  That means that even if we sold him for a fiver, it's pure profit.  Whatever money we get in for him today, is pure profit in PSR terms.

With Carlos, he's now halfway through his contract with us, and having signed for £26m, that means anything above £13m-ish is going to be profit.  We might not get £13m, admittedly, but we certainly don't need to get the £26-30m we paid for him for any sale to be "profitable".

Thanks smithy i was not aware with that regarding mings.  So after how long does jt become  amortised? 5 years ? Or is once they have completed their contract term?

It's the length of the initial contract, to a maximum of 5 years.  It used to be longer, but they closed that loophole last year to stop Chelsea signing players on 7+ year contracts to help them with PSR in the short term.

Basically any of the players with us when we came up, or bought in our first year or so in the premier league, are now basically all profit if sold.  That includes Tyrone, McGinn, Ezri, plus Ollie and Emi (by the next summer window).  I'm not for one moment suggesting we SHOULD sell any of these - just that in terms of PSR, all of them now have a decent profit value if we NEED to sell them.

Wow did not know that rule smirker about before we came up. Thats pretty good then if your a new team coming up e.g ipswich

Dont think we would get much for mings though a si think he is 31 now

Mcginn would be one we might look at if his form doesnt improve.  But it does seem he is being played out of position

Sorry, if I wasn't clear, I was referring to the players that had been with us for 5 or so years (to around the time we came up), not that there is a rule about players being in your squad WHEN you get promoted.  No such rule exists.   It's all about when they were signed, and the contract length.

No need to apologise mate thanks for explaining it something ive learned today!

You’ve learned it before mate. You’ve just forgotten.

But yeah, we’re in a fantastic FFP position regarding transfers. Which is just as well, as the club sees it as an easy way to boost revenue and therefore invest more in new players.

Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, McGinn, Watkins almost fully amortised. Slightly less so - Buendia, Bailey, Digne, Carlos. Actual pure profit - Kamara, Ramsey, Tielemans. Rogers and Duran have a negligible amount outstanding in comparison to tbeir actual value.

No i genuinely did not know the part about the championship players. Thats new info for me mate

See? You’ve just (at 12.48pm) had it explained to you that it’s nothing to do with them being Championship players, and you’ve even forgotten that.

Anyway, amortisation has been explained and discussed at length in the relevant threads, and I’m pretty sure specifically explained to you.

You misunderstood  when i say championship players as thats where we were 5 years ago!

[Percy McCarthy]

^^ So what was ‘new info’ about the Chamionship players that you didn’t know about?

[Demitri_C]

^^ So what was ‘new info’ about the Chamionship players that you didn’t know about?

I didnt get the 5 years part once thats passed its pure profit on any sale

[Percy McCarthy]

^^ So what was ‘new info’ about the Chamionship players that you didn’t know about?

I didnt get the 5 years part once thats passed its pure profit on any sale

Sigh. If someone signs a five year contract and their fee amortises for five years, their contract has ended and there’s no sale and no profit as they can leave on a free transfer.

It works like this. If we’d signed Mings for £25m on a five year contract, the fee would amortise at (£25m divided by 5 years) £5m a year. So, after two years that would leave £15m unamortised. If he then signed another five year-contract, the process would start again, and the fee would amortise at (£15m divided by 5 years) £3m a year. After two years of that, anything above £9m would be a profit in the accounts, anything under a loss. I’m pretty sure he has signed another contract since he joined, don’t know lengths of either of his contracts, or the timing of his second one, or his initial fee (for certain), hence the round figures for easy maths.

By the way, we were in the Premier League 5 years ago.

[Dante Lavelli]

Sky said we had a net spend of 70m which is peanuts compared to the other teams. We need to break bank and get mbeulo in. He is exactly what we need and a massive step up from philogene

He’s a great player but I don’t think he’d improve us much because he’s an attacking generalist and not better than any of our specialists.
It’s a helluva lot of money to spend on being the first attacking reserve.
 

[Dante Lavelli]

We need to improve the right hand side of the team throughout, Konsa is the only one really playing well on that side of the pitch although i'm quite sure McGinn's drop off is temporary. Maybe he could do with a bit of rest time, which bringing in more quality in that area will allow. Ned is a good one for the future, Cash is a good squad player,  Carlos is very inconsistant, Jaden doesn't convince really so far and Bailey is the biggest worry of all.

Currently, on the right, we either have no width when McGinn plays or too little defensive cover when Bailey slots in. 

How about we sign “Frimgpong” but play him in a notional RM position with Konsa at RB.  Frimgpong is a world-class attacking wingback but not great RB.  In possession that becomes a very decent 343, width on both sides, and three CB to keep the back door closed. 

The release clause for Frimgpong is apparently low so could be a decent deal.  Worst case he has a duel with cash as a conventional RB.

[paul_e]

Not been on much today but was there really comment that we could 'maybe' make a profit on McGinn? We paid £2.5m for him, even at 30/31 we'd get 5-6x that as an absolute minimum.

More recently I don't think this is quite right:

Currently, on the right, we either have no width when McGinn plays or too little defensive cover when Bailey slots in. 

How about we sign “Frimgpong” but play him in a notional RM position with Konsa at RB.  Frimgpong is a world-class attacking wingback but not great RB.  In possession that becomes a very decent 343, width on both sides, and three CB to keep the back door closed. 

The release clause for Frimgpong is apparently low so could be a decent deal.  Worst case he has a duel with cash as a conventional RB.

The problem is width in both cases because, whilst Bailey will stay wide, he's never truly comfortable on his right foot. With the asymmetrical setup of the team Digne provides a natural crossing option on the left but we don't really have that on the right. Even when Cash plays and gets forward he's not a strong crosser (which I suspect is why we hold him a little deeper) which means we have a habit of becoming very narrow on that side regardless of who plays. It was the same last season as well but we got away with it because Bailey was in great form and making things happen enough to mask the problem.

[Dante Lavelli]

I think we might be saying the same thing, or at least identifying the same problem. 

Right now there isn’t anyone on the right that can cross.  Bailey can beat a man on the outside but he prefers cutting in onto his left foot.  McGinn draws defenders in like a hoover but needs an overlapping RB.  Cash isn’t that defender.   However, I think it’s be a big ask of any RB due to the asymmetrical tactics.