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Author Topic: Champions League  (Read 291920 times)

Online olaftab

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3720 on: January 22, 2025, 11:37:34 PM »
It’s simple. The smell blood victims are Atletico and Atalanta. They may not win in Salzburg in which case as long as we win we are through. I don’t think both Atletico and Atalanta results will go against so I think we win we go to last 16. Monaco will at best get a draw in Milan and even if they will they need to win by 3/4, same with Lille v Feyenoord game. Most likely to be a draw.

Online aldridgeboy

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3721 on: January 22, 2025, 11:41:43 PM »
Celtic had 3 disallowed and a missed Pen!

We should beat them
And Barcelona hopefully beat Atalanta.

I didn’t realise until today there’s no draw for the last  16 or any other rounds.

Online Small Rodent

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3722 on: January 22, 2025, 11:54:43 PM »
Commentators often mention a defender not “picking up a ball”.

Our hero Mings did so.

However, a totally off the wall event like that does not dictate the result of future games.

If that event had not happened we cannot predict the outcome.

In fact it should give more focus on the remaining games.

We did not do this.

Offline Somniloquism

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3723 on: January 22, 2025, 11:59:12 PM »
I didn’t realise until today there’s no draw for the last  16 or any other rounds.

Their is a draw for last 16 as the pairs have to be separated out into one side of the draw or the other. But then the sides are pretty much fixed.

Offline Rigadon

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3724 on: January 23, 2025, 08:47:00 AM »
So, despite that shite result earlier this week, we are still looking OK for a top 8 finish if we beat Celtic and another result goes our way.  I'd have taken that at the start of the tournament. 

Online Meanwood Villa

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3725 on: January 23, 2025, 08:52:39 AM »
I thought we'd get top 24 in the new format before the draw was made, top 8 seemed fanciful.

After the draw, I thought we'd almost certainly manage three wins with some extra points (maybe another win) picked up along the way.

So in some ways we've exceeded expectations. I think the disappointment has come from our defeats being in what were perceived as more winnable games. Then you forget the points above expectations from other games.

Online Meanwood Villa

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3726 on: January 23, 2025, 08:53:22 AM »
But agree, we'd have all taken this position at the start of the season I reckon.

Offline cdbearsfan

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3727 on: January 23, 2025, 09:21:28 AM »
Okay, if we win we will make top eight if AT LEAST THREE of the matches below go our way, as follows (some of the possibilities are not in any way likely but working it our was more fun than doing any work):

• Girona vs ARSENAL
Arsenal lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Arsenal games is at least 8
OR Arsenal lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Arsenal games is exactly 7 AND Villa score at least 6 more goals than Arsenal
OR Arsenal lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Arsenal games is exactly 7 AND Villa score exactly 5 more goals than Arsenal AND Arsenal score fewer than 2 goals

• INTER vs MONACO
Inter lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Inter games is exactly 3
OR Inter lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Inter games is exactly 2 AND Villa score more goals, the same number of goals or 1 goal fewer than Inter
OR Inter lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Inter games is at least 4 AND Monaco's margin of victory is smaller, the same or 1 goal greater than Villa's
OR Inter lose AND the combined margin of victory in the Villa/Inter games is at least 4 AND Monaco's margin of victory is exactly 2 goals greater than Villa's AND Villa score at least 5 more goals than Monaco

Note: if we win we are guaranteed to finish above at least one of Inter or Monaco, the above is what is required to finish above both.

• Salzburg vs ATLETICO MADRID
Atletico fail to win

• Dinamo Zagreb vs AC MILAN
Milan fail to win

• Barcelona vs ATALANTA
Atalanta fail to win

• LEVERKUSEN vs Sparta Prague
Leverkusen fail to win
OR Leverkusen win by at least 2 goals fewer than Villa
OR Leverkusen win by exactly 1 goal fewer than Villa AND Villa score at least 4 more goals than Leverkusen

• LILLE vs FEYENOORD
Match is a draw
OR either team wins AND the margin of victory is smaller, the same or 1 goal more than Villa's
OR Lille win AND the margin of victory is exactly 2 goals more than Villa's AND Villa score 3 or more goals more than Lille
OR Lille win AND the margin of victory is exactly 2 goals more than Villa's AND Villa score exactly 2 goals more than Lille AND our combined opponents' number points are greater than Lille's opponents' combined number of points (I haven't worked this bit out as there are too many possible combinations)
OR Feyenoord win AND the margin of victory is exactly 2 goals more than Villa's AND Villa score at least 9 more goals than Feyenoord

Note: if we win we are guaranteed to finish above at least one of Lille or Feyenoord, the above is what is required to finish above both.

• BREST vs Real Madrid
Brest fail to win
OR Brest win AND the margin of victory is smaller, the same or fewer than 3 goals more than Villa's
OR Brest win AND the margin of victory is exactly 3 goals more than Villa's AND Villa score at least 2 goals more than Brest
OR Brest win AND the margin of victory is exactly 3 goals more than Villa's AND Villa score exactly 1 goal more than Brest AND our combined opponents' number of points are greater than Brest's combined opponents' number of points

We can still mathematically qualify with a draw, however, it is so unlikely I can't be arsed to work out the scenarios in full, however we would probably need Leverkusen to lose, Lille vs Feyenoord and Brest vs Real Madrid to end as draws and all of Monaco, Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Juventus to fail to win, and for neither PSV nor Club Brugge to win by too many.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2025, 09:24:34 AM by cdbearsfan »

Offline stevo_st

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3728 on: January 23, 2025, 09:30:32 AM »
Erm, isn’t it we win and Atlanta lose and we pretty much go through?

Unless one of the teams on the same points beneath us tonk their opposition, then we might have to score a few more against Celtic

Online Meanwood Villa

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3729 on: January 23, 2025, 09:31:41 AM »
Excellent work cd. I can see you're as engaged with work as I am this morning.

Offline cdbearsfan

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3730 on: January 23, 2025, 09:33:20 AM »
I'll leave you in charge of checking it to see if it's actually correct...

Offline Percy McCarthy

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3731 on: January 23, 2025, 09:35:02 AM »
Erm, isn’t it we win and Atlanta lose and we pretty much go through?

Unless one of the teams on the same points beneath us tonk their opposition, then we might have to score a few more against Celtic

If we win and Atalanta fail to win (a draw will do).

Offline cdbearsfan

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3732 on: January 23, 2025, 09:38:41 AM »
Basically, we are probably through if we win and any of Atalanta, Atletico, AC Milan or Leverkusen fail to win or if Inter lose, assuming no weird results below us.

If we hammer Celtic we could still catch Leverkusen if they only manage a narrow win.

Online Richard

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3733 on: January 23, 2025, 09:40:19 AM »
Erm, isn’t it we win and Atlanta lose and we pretty much go through?

Unless one of the teams on the same points beneath us tonk their opposition, then we might have to score a few more against Celtic

Atlanta draw or lose, we win should do it.

Online TaxDodger

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Re: Champions League
« Reply #3734 on: January 23, 2025, 09:43:12 AM »
If we end up 9th there's a pretty good chance we play Man City, which would be an utterly terrible draw.

 


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