Champions League

[Meanwood Villa]

I like this much more than trying to calculate whether we can eke out enough points to finish above Wigan and QPR to stay up.

Very true

[paul_e]

I said 17 points at the beginning because, statistically, it was the most likely. The actual maths works out at a little over 2.1 points per game  but it was very near to 17. I'm surprised they're giving 16 such a high percentage, I wouldn't be confident with that.

[tomd2103]

Loving this new format, going to be a right scramble in January to finish top 8.

Yeah, with two games to go, that league is now starting to take shape, especially when you look at the teans who are now just 1 or 2 points out of the top 8. 

I'm thinking we might have to win both our remaining games to stay in that top 8 now given how tight it is. 

Think not getting at least a point in Bruges might be costly. 

[Somniloquism]

The problem with these % chance calculators is, as is shown by the fact that they change after every set of matches, that they're a load of bollocks.

I would argue that although they change, they also get more accurate based on the data. 15/16 points was the initial cutoff point. As the matches have gone on and strange results like City and PSG only winning 2 of 6 games, or a defender picking up a ball passed to him by a keeper, then changes are made. (All those were because other lower teams picked up unexpected points).

[IFWaters]

I've looked at the fixtures for the teams around us. By my reckoning I've got Liverpool on 24 points, Barca and arsenal on 19 then Dortmund, Bayern Munich and AC Milan on 18 points, so that's 6 teams and then us, Inter and Leverkusen on 17 with 2 out of those 3 going through on goal difference. Aggghhhhhh

[Somniloquism]

I said 17 points at the beginning because, statistically, it was the most likely. The actual maths works out at a little over 2.1 points per game  but it was very near to 17. I'm surprised they're giving 16 such a high percentage, I wouldn't be confident with that.

If you look at the current table, 16 teams out of the of the top 19 could finish on 16 points based on permutations*. Obviously some are playing each other (us Monaco) but I can see why 16 still has a high percentage, but it will probably be on GD if any do.

*Only Liverpool already above it, and Atalanta/Juve on 11 can't.

[Flamingo Lane]

Whatever their position in the league of 36 at the time we play te time we play them, Celtic will not be approaching our game as if there isn't anything riding on it!

[Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air]

 

Draw in Monaco, then beat Celtic who more than likely will have nothing riding on this game.

I would prefer to beat Monaco so they can't finish above us. If we only draw and Celtic expectedly beat Young Boys, they might want to win to finish above us in the table still as they could finish on 15.

They may play a weakened team as they have a tough trip to Motherwell 3 days later.   

[TonyD]

Let’s just mash Monaco in their weird shopping centre roof top ground - and go from there.

[Percy McCarthy]

Loving this new format, going to be a right scramble in January to finish top 8.

Yeah, with two games to go, that league is now starting to take shape, especially when you look at the teans who are now just 1 or 2 points out of the top 8. 

I'm thinking we might have to win both our remaining games to stay in that top 8 now given how tight it is. 

Think not getting at least a point in Bruges might be costly.

Me too. Our approach in that game was all wrong. Felt like we played as if we would have been happy with a point, when we should have gone at it like we did last night. The three points were there for the taking v Brugge. I know they always are, I mean, we’re a much better team than them and we didn’t show enough drive or ambition.

[TonyD]

Dortmund keeper was rubbing tonight.

[Drummond]

Dortmund keeper was rubbing tonight.

Friction behind the scenes?

[Demitri_C]

Its tight it could even  come to GD so its absolutely  crucial we avoid defeat  vs monaco. Do france  get a winter break? As we will have a very busy xmas period as we know

[Richard]

Its tight it could even  come to GD so its absolutely  crucial we avoid defeat  vs monaco. Do france  get a winter break? As we will have a very busy xmas period as we know

Annoyingly we are away on the Weds and Sat before playing Monaco on the Tuesday which is far from ideal.

[Somniloquism]

What happens with Jan signings and the Champions League? In the old format, the league section was over by now and so a natural break to allow for registering new players / removing injured ones. But now the league doesn't finish to mid-feb?