Champions League Contention

[Footy-Vill]

I don't really get the Arsenal winning makes a difference thought process. If Arsenal lose, Citeh win the league with a win. They're hardly taking their foot off the gas there are they?

This. It's win / win on the Arsenal - City thing.

The worst thing would have been an outcome that decided the title definitively one way or the other.

A draw for Man City today would have been the best result in the incentive stakes and they would have remained second before Arsenal even played but as they won 4-0 it puts pressure on Arsenal.

[Ads]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

[Bad English]

I don't really get the Arsenal winning makes a difference thought process. If Arsenal lose, Citeh win the league with a win. They're hardly taking their foot off the gas there are they?

This. It's win / win on the Arsenal - City thing.

The worst thing would have been an outcome that decided the title definitively one way or the other.

A draw for Man City today would have been the best result in the incentive stakes and they would have remained second before Arsenal even played but as they won 4-0 it puts pressure on Arsenal.

Extremely well-written post.

[pauliewalnuts]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

Yes.

[pauliewalnuts]

I don't really get the Arsenal winning makes a difference thought process. If Arsenal lose, Citeh win the league with a win. They're hardly taking their foot off the gas there are they?

This. It's win / win on the Arsenal - City thing.

The worst thing would have been an outcome that decided the title definitively one way or the other.

A draw for Man City today would have been the best result in the incentive stakes and they would have remained second before Arsenal even played but as they won 4-0 it puts pressure on Arsenal.

Extremely well-written post.

Shift changed.

[Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle]

I don't really get the Arsenal winning makes a difference thought process. If Arsenal lose, Citeh win the league with a win. They're hardly taking their foot off the gas there are they?

This. It's win / win on the Arsenal - City thing.

The worst thing would have been an outcome that decided the title definitively one way or the other.

A draw for Man City today would have been the best result in the incentive stakes and they would have remained second before Arsenal even played but as they won 4-0 it puts pressure on Arsenal.

It's true, Manchester City's win certainly adds pressure on Arsenal. It's all part of the excitement of the competition, isn't it? Keeps fans on the edge of their seats!

[Brazilian Villain]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

Yes.

And to put it another way, a Labour majority at the next General Election is only 1/12. Anyone think the Tories will win it?

[Percy McCarthy]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

Yes.

And to put it another way, a Labour majority at the next General Election is only 1/12. Anyone think the Tories will win it?

The thing is, Spurs are only 5/1 to beat Man City. I know it’s a tall order but it’s the only bit of what they need to happen that is unlikely.

That’s what makes 16/1 against them finishing fourth fairly attractive odds.

Us getting one point (or none)  from our games v Liverpool & Palace? Sounds eminently possible.

Them beating Sheff Utd? Probable.

Then you’re back to that 5/1 shot.

[Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

Yes.

And to put it another way, a Labour majority at the next General Election is only 1/12. Anyone think the Tories will win it?

Tories and Europe? Not a great mix.

[PaulWinch again]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

Yes.

And to put it another way, a Labour majority at the next General Election is only 1/12. Anyone think the Tories will win it?

The thing is, Spurs are only 5/1 to beat Man City. I know it’s a tall order but it’s the only bit of what they need to happen that is unlikely.

That’s what makes 16/1 against them finishing fourth fairly attractive odds.

Us getting one point (or none)  from our games v Liverpool & Palace? Sounds eminently possible.

Them beating Sheff Utd? Probable.

Then you’re back to that 5/1 shot.

Yep it’s the fact we’ve got two bites at the cherry, and they’re playing Citeh that pushes the odds out.

[Ads]

Anybody betting against Man City, who are about to win 6 out the last 7 titles, 4 in a row has more money than sense.

[pauliewalnuts]

After today's result, we're only 1/25 to get top 4......gulp.

Useless with gambling, so we're that odds on, to win 4 quid, you'd have to bet £100?

Yes.

And to put it another way, a Labour majority at the next General Election is only 1/12. Anyone think the Tories will win it?

The thing is, Spurs are only 5/1 to beat Man City. I know it’s a tall order but it’s the only bit of what they need to happen that is unlikely.

That’s what makes 16/1 against them finishing fourth fairly attractive odds.

Us getting one point (or none)  from our games v Liverpool & Palace? Sounds eminently possible.

Them beating Sheff Utd? Probable.

Then you’re back to that 5/1 shot.

That's not how it works, though. You've just spooled together a few unlikely outcomes, and arrived at a conclusion which doesn't really reflect the factors involved. Calculations like "that's fairly unlikely" and "probably" are exactly how the bookies make their money - people making bets on a hunch.

So us as punters see 5/1 and think "only", but it's not "only", 5/1 is actually an enormous price in a three horse race, if you think about it. Put it in a real world context - how certain would you have to be of something to happen to say to someone down the pub, "let's have a bet, you give me £10 if i win, and if you win, I'll give you £60"

Right now, the bookies are running software which is calculating minute by minute their potential losses on markets like this, and the price you'll get if you fancy a few quid on things going terribly is currently immense.

[Percy McCarthy]

Anybody betting against Man City, who are about to win 6 out the last 7 titles, 4 in a row jas more money than sense.

I agree. But I’d be so depressed if the results pan out like I outlined above, I’d need a consolation prize. Plus I’m trying to jinx it.

I really, really, really want to lose my money. It’s a desperate measure.

[Toronto Villa]

We are honestly very fortunate given how we are ending the season that Spurs are playing them. Because anyone else I have my doubts if we have enough in the tank to see the job through by ourselves.

Not really, if they'd already played them when it was scheduled we'd probably already have 4th sewn up.

My point being, given where we are right now and how we are ending the season. It’s specific to where we are at this moment, running on fumes. So schedule as it turned out helps a lot. Had Spurs played Man City earlier is the same as saying if we didn’t have a million injuries and things were different. It’s not, so we can take the bit of fortune that Spurs are playing “runaway freight train” Man City versus middle of the season Man City.

[pauliewalnuts]

We are honestly very fortunate given how we are ending the season that Spurs are playing them. Because anyone else I have my doubts if we have enough in the tank to see the job through by ourselves.

Not really, if they'd already played them when it was scheduled we'd probably already have 4th sewn up.

My point being, given where we are right now and how we are ending the season. It’s specific to where we are at this moment, running on fumes. So schedule as it turned out helps a lot. Had Spurs played Man City earlier is the same as saying if we didn’t have a million injuries and things were different. It’s not, so we can take the bit of fortune that Spurs are playing “runaway freight train” Man City versus middle of the season Man City.

Yes but by the same measure, we had to play Man City and Arsenal in the space of four days, that too was unfortunate.