Champions League Contention

[Risso]

I'm assuming three or four more ACLs before the run-in.

Most ACLs in a season, you'll never sing that.

[LeeB]

As with player ratings, do any of you think anyone is reading the points predictions?

And I thought it was just me

[Brazilian Villain]

On average over the last five seasons, 68 points has been enough for top 4. The most it has taken was 71 points in 2018/19.

5th place has needed 63 points on average, with a maximum of 67 in 2018/19.

No stats to back this up, but it feels like the top 5 are winning more games than usual, and the bottom clubs fewer. Thus the points needed this season might be at the upper end of the historical range.

[Dave P]

I'm assuming three or four more ACLs before the run-in.

Most ACLs in a season, you'll never sing that.

ECL > ACL

[Dogtanian]

On average over the last five seasons, 68 points has been enough for top 4. The most it has taken was 71 points in 2018/19.

5th place has needed 63 points on average, with a maximum of 67 in 2018/19.

No stats to back this up, but it feels like the top 5 are winning more games than usual, and the bottom clubs fewer. Thus the points needed this season might be at the upper end of the historical range.

I think you may be right. Spurs PPG would currently get them 71 points, and Man U's would get 64.

If Spurs beat Palace this weekend, but lose to us next weekend, that would still only drop down to 70.

[itbrvilla]

So we need Man City, Arsenal, Brighton, West ham to do well and knock out any Italian teams they may come up against?

[paul_e]

On average over the last five seasons, 68 points has been enough for top 4. The most it has taken was 71 points in 2018/19.

5th place has needed 63 points on average, with a maximum of 67 in 2018/19.

No stats to back this up, but it feels like the top 5 are winning more games than usual, and the bottom clubs fewer. Thus the points needed this season might be at the upper end of the historical range.

I think that's definitely right, Sheff Utd and Burnley are both so poor that it's skewing the whole league.

[Dave P]

So we need Man City, Arsenal, Brighton, West ham to do well and knock out any Italian teams they may come up against?

It's more the German teams we want out and West Ham have Frieburg which is a key fixture.

[London Villan]

We are 5 points ahead of the team (newcastle) that was in 4th place after 26 games last season.

[TelfordVilla]

So we need Man City, Arsenal, Brighton, West ham to do well and knock out any Italian teams they may come up against?

I prefer to have us finish 4th and spurs miss out because 5th is only good enough for the europa league

[Somniloquism]

Same here. I will only be cheering on those countries clubs to be beat if we throwaway our 4th spot advantage. And even then, if it comes to Bayern or Citeh/Liverpool to decide it and we are 5th, I will still cheer on Bayern.

[OCD]

Apparently there's only been 8 goalless draws so far this season. Maybe less draws overall too? That would make a greater disparity than the bottom sides doing poorly.

[Brazilian Villain]

Apparently there's only been 8 goalless draws so far this season.

All the more surprising given VAR seems intent on ruling out every goal it can.

[Footy-Vill]

Premier League occasions 4th place after 26 matches.

1992/93 
1    Norwich +2      Pts 48
2    Man Utd    +19   Pts 47
3    Aston Villa +13 Pts 47
4    Ipswich +7      Pts 42

1995/1996
1    Newcastle  +27 Pts 60
2    Man Utd     +18 Pts 51
3    Liverpool   +28 Pts 49
4    Aston Villa +17 Pts 48

1998/99
1    Man Utd +32   Pts 51
2    Chelsea +18   Pts 50
3    Arsenal  +22   Pts 49
4    Aston Villa +10 Pts4

2008/209
1    Man Utd    +35. Pts 62
2    Liverpool +25  Pts 55
3    Chelsea   +30  Pts 52
4    Aston Villa +15 Pts 51

2009/10
1    Chelsea +39    Pts 58
2    Man Utd +41  Pts 57
3    Arsenal  +31   Pts 52
4    Aston Villa +14 Pts 45

2023/24
1    Liverpool        +38 Pts 60
2    Man City         +33 Pts 59
3    Arsenal           +39 Pts 58
4    Aston Villa    +21 Pts 52

[Footy-Vill]

On average over the last five seasons, 68 points has been enough for top 4. The most it has taken was 71 points in 2018/19.

5th place has needed 63 points on average, with a maximum of 67 in 2018/19.

No stats to back this up, but it feels like the top 5 are winning more games than usual, and the bottom clubs fewer. Thus the points needed this season might be at the upper end of the historical range.

I think that's definitely right, Sheff Utd and Burnley are both so poor that it's skewing the whole league.

Top 5 after 26 matches last 3 seasons and final 4th and 5th positions with points shown

2022/23
After 26
1    Arsenal   Pts 63
2    Man City Pts 58
3    Man Utd Pts 52
4    Newcastle Pts47
5    Tottenham Pts 45

Final Table
4th Newcastle 71
5th Liverpool 67

2021/22
After 26
1    Man City   Pts 63
2    Liverpool Pts 60
3    Chelsea   Pts 50
4    Arsenal   Pts 48
5    Man Utd     Pts 46

Final Table
4th Spurs 71
5th Arsenal 69

2020/21
After 26
1    Man City  Pts 62
2    Man Utd      Pts 50
3    Leicester  Pts 49
4    West Ham Pts 45
5    Chelsea    Pts 44

Final Table
4th Chelsea 67
5th Leicester 66