2024 January transfer window - hopes, needs, expectations and rumours.

[AV84]

It looks like we're treading a bit of a fine line with FFP, in common with just about everybody else. But it seems strange that you'd go to all the bother of trying to bring in that bloke from Barcelona, then bring Monchi in, for our main target to be some kid from Middlesbrough with wholly unexceptional stats.

Maybe it's a case of Monchi and Co having a load of targets in different price brackets and depending on where we are financially, we'll work off the corresponding list.

If I had to stab a guess at how things stand I'd say we're trying to strengthen the squad as "cheaply" as possible to secure a CL place, which should guarantee us more money in the summer, when Monchi will be able to move up a bracket or two.

[Risso]

It looks like we're treading a bit of a fine line with FFP, in common with just about everybody else. But it seems strange that you'd go to all the bother of trying to bring in that bloke from Barcelona, then bring Monchi in, for our main target to be some kid from Middlesbrough with wholly unexceptional stats.

Maybe it's a case of Monchi and Co having a load of targets in different price brackets and depending on where we are financially, we'll work off the corresponding list.

If I had to stab a guess at how things stand I'd say we're trying to strengthen the squad as "cheaply" as possible to secure a CL place, which should guarantee us more money in the summer, when Monchi will be able to move up a bracket or two.

But FFP is mostly historic, so he'd have known what we were dealing with as soon as he arrived.  To be honest, the biggest thing that is hobbling us FFP wise at the moment is probably the amortisation and wages of Diaby, who really hasn't presented anything like decent value for money so far.

[AV84]

But FFP is mostly historic, so he'd have known what we were dealing with as soon as he arrived.  To be honest, the biggest thing that is hobbling us FFP wise at the moment is probably the amortisation and wages of Diaby, who really hasn't presented anything like decent value for money so far.

I'll be honest, I don't really get how FFP works, but even if it's mostly historic, couldn't you still plan for it? Like we could take a gamble now and spend 50mil on one player in the hopes we make CL and get a load of new income to cover it. Or, we play it safe, spend very little now, hope we still get CL and have much more of that cash available to us to spend in the future, while still keeping well clear of the FFP line?

[VillaTim]

Looks like we are being cautious with FFP, also a new strategy if these 3 youngsters sign (keeper / RB / Rogers) would suggest a moneyball approach as after 2-3 years coaching under Emery these players could be worth significant amounts .

[ChicagoLion]

But FFP is mostly historic, so he'd have known what we were dealing with as soon as he arrived.  To be honest, the biggest thing that is hobbling us FFP wise at the moment is probably the amortisation and wages of Diaby, who really hasn't presented anything like decent value for money so far.

I'll be honest, I don't really get how FFP works, but even if it's mostly historic, couldn't you still plan for it? Like we could take a gamble now and spend 50mil on one player in the hopes we make CL and get a load of new income to cover it. Or, we play it safe, spend very little now, hope we still get CL and have much more of that cash available to us to spend in the future, while still keeping well clear of the FFP line?



It’s a 3 year rolling calculation, so you go into the new financial year knowing your likely budget, obviously a cup run or selling a player can have a positive effect.
But if you gamble on a big signing or signings knowing that will take you into negative territory then you get punished.
Just like in any business, a calculated risk that can be mitigated is fine, gambling is not.

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[PeterWithe]

But it seems strange that you'd go to all the bother of trying to bring in that bloke from Barcelona, then bring Monchi in, for our main target to be some kid from Middlesbrough with wholly unexceptional stats.

Maybe part of the remit is to sell players for big money and replace them with 2/3 'finds' from Monchi. Be interesting to know who's on his list.

[eamonn]

As far as all of our summer signings go, Torres is probably the only one who has been outstanding from very early on. Diaby, Zaniolo, and Tielemans have taken time to settle, or started well and then fallen off a bit. And then Ramsey hasn't come back as good as he was last season. If it wasn't for Bailey having some kind of resurgence of late we'd be looking a bit shaky in that general area. I'd assume it's a combination of all of those things that have us looking at Rogers. There were a few reports that we'd agreed a fee for Ngonge a week or so ago, but he wanted to stay in Italy. So maybe those reports were correct, and with him signing foe Napoli we've moved on to this guy. Could also explain why it wasn't negotiated with the Azaz deal?

No pressure on a kid to hit the ground running where more experienced, expensive players have failed! I'd be amazed if his immediate effect is any greater than Duran's.

[Risso]

But FFP is mostly historic, so he'd have known what we were dealing with as soon as he arrived.  To be honest, the biggest thing that is hobbling us FFP wise at the moment is probably the amortisation and wages of Diaby, who really hasn't presented anything like decent value for money so far.

I'll be honest, I don't really get how FFP works, but even if it's mostly historic, couldn't you still plan for it? Like we could take a gamble now and spend 50mil on one player in the hopes we make CL and get a load of new income to cover it. Or, we play it safe, spend very little now, hope we still get CL and have much more of that cash available to us to spend in the future, while still keeping well clear of the FFP line?

Yep,the current year is mostly based on projections, but even then you're dealing with a lot of known information like season ticket sales. Obviously final league position and cup runs will make a difference like you say, but in that situation you could take a reasonable guess. A team like Luton probably isn't going to budget for top 6, and somebody like Liverpool aren't going to plan on finishing bottom half.

[AV84]

It’s a 3 year rolling calculation, so you go into the new financial year knowing your likely budget, obviously a cup run or selling a player can have a positive effect.
But if you gamble on a big signing or signings knowing that will take you into negative territory then you get punished.
Just like in any business, a calculated risk that can be mitigated is fine, gambling is not.

Yeah, so it's as I thought. You would be aware of how close you are to the line every window, and you'd be able to calculate going forward what any big spend would likely mean in the future, in terms of being a massive risk or a good investment. I'd imagine going forward January windows are going to be generally quite low key. We're already seeing that across the leagues this year.

[LeeB]

It’s a 3 year rolling calculation, so you go into the new financial year knowing your likely budget, obviously a cup run or selling a player can have a positive effect.
But if you gamble on a big signing or signings knowing that will take you into negative territory then you get punished.
Just like in any business, a calculated risk that can be mitigated is fine, gambling is not.

Yeah, so it's as I thought. You would be aware of how close you are to the line every window, and you'd be able to calculate going forward what any big spend would likely mean in the future, in terms of being a massive risk or a good investment. I'd imagine going forward January windows are going to be generally quite low key. We're already seeing that across the leagues this year.

I bet Sky Sports are massively pissed off with it.

[ChicagoLion]

It’s a 3 year rolling calculation, so you go into the new financial year knowing your likely budget, obviously a cup run or selling a player can have a positive effect.
But if you gamble on a big signing or signings knowing that will take you into negative territory then you get punished.
Just like in any business, a calculated risk that can be mitigated is fine, gambling is not.

Yeah, so it's as I thought. You would be aware of how close you are to the line every window, and you'd be able to calculate going forward what any big spend would likely mean in the future, in terms of being a massive risk or a good investment. I'd imagine going forward January windows are going to be generally quite low key. We're already seeing that across the leagues this year.

Yes, and I think this January is particularly flat because so many clubs appear to be pushing against their FFP ceiling.
As Risso says, a club should know most of its key revenue streams TV money, Sponsorship,Season Ticket and gate money.
They will also know player wages and amortisation costs.

[garyellis]

It may well be that our transfer budget is to cover beyond the here and now.
Of the 3 youngsters we have been linked with or signed only one is from England.
We can’t ignore one of the most competitive leagues in Europe nor should we be limited to these shores.

[pablo_picasso]

It’s a 3 year rolling calculation, so you go into the new financial year knowing your likely budget, obviously a cup run or selling a player can have a positive effect.
But if you gamble on a big signing or signings knowing that will take you into negative territory then you get punished.
Just like in any business, a calculated risk that can be mitigated is fine, gambling is not.

Yeah, so it's as I thought. You would be aware of how close you are to the line every window, and you'd be able to calculate going forward what any big spend would likely mean in the future, in terms of being a massive risk or a good investment. I'd imagine going forward January windows are going to be generally quite low key. We're already seeing that across the leagues this year.

I bet Sky Sports are massively pissed off with it.

Thats the thing that raises a smile about the whole situation...

[OCD]

But FFP is mostly historic, so he'd have known what we were dealing with as soon as he arrived.  To be honest, the biggest thing that is hobbling us FFP wise at the moment is probably the amortisation and wages of Diaby, who really hasn't presented anything like decent value for money so far.

I'll be honest, I don't really get how FFP works, but even if it's mostly historic, couldn't you still plan for it? Like we could take a gamble now and spend 50mil on one player in the hopes we make CL and get a load of new income to cover it. Or, we play it safe, spend very little now, hope we still get CL and have much more of that cash available to us to spend in the future, while still keeping well clear of the FFP line?

Yep,the current year is mostly based on projections, but even then you're dealing with a lot of known information like season ticket sales. Obviously final league position and cup runs will make a difference like you say, but in that situation you could take a reasonable guess. A team like Luton probably isn't going to budget for top 6, and somebody like Liverpool aren't going to plan on finishing bottom half.

But a team like Everton will budget for finishing 6th!

[Malandro]

If we are tight on FFP, we will be in the old position of selling somebody like Luiz, because we need the money and we can’t match his ambitions.