Champions League Contention

[Smithy]

I think Spurs will beat Chelsea. 

It's certainly possible, if unlikely. The way I'm looking at it is like this: If we can beat Brighton, Spurs would need to beat TWO of Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool to go ahead of us (or beat one, and draw with the other two).  And that's assuming we lose to both Liverpool and Palace, and they beat both Burnley and Sheff Utd.  There is a reason the bookies have us as the red-hot favourite for 4th.

An awful lot has to go right for them to get ahead of us. It's not impossible, but it's in our own hands, which I much prefer to relying on them to lose. Win 3 games, we're guaranteed 4th.

If the situations were reversed, 90% of the people on this forum would have written off our chances of 4th, and rightly so.  And you know what, if they do the unthinkable and win all five games from now to the end of the season, they'd probably deserve 4th.

[Footy-Vill]

My guess is we’ll need to win at Palace on the last day of the season. But we could do ourselves a massive favour at Brighton, and Chelsea and Liverpool could do us a massive favour too.

By the way - I think those “X haven’t won at Y for 43 years” stats are the most pointless in football. And there’s some stiff competition.

Oh it won't be necessary to last game of season I know my forecast and basing on Prem history that Villa qualify before then.
I don't know why you readily dismiss the facts.
By the way our record at Selhurst park
Premier League 11 games 2 Wins 2 draws and  7 defeats
And with Brighton away and having never lost in Prem that's at least a point. Rather than pointless!

Chelsea and Liverpool will be doing the usual V Spurs
Spurs unlikely to win at either ground. As it's already been said they win rarely at the bridge
Also at Anfield it's the same
Spurs form since last winning 13 years ago at Anfield !
LDLLLDLDLLLD form at

In 31 Matches
Liverpool 20 wins
9 draws
2 defeats.

[Footy-Vill]

So you can get 40-1 on Spurs to beat Chelsea and Liverpool plus we lose to Brighton. Or swap the Brighton loss for a draw and it is 50-1. As emotional hedges go, those are both very tasty.

I think Spurs will beat Chelsea. 

It's certainly possible, if unlikely. The way I'm looking at it is like this: If we can beat Brighton, Spurs would need to beat TWO of Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool to go ahead of us (or beat one, and draw with the other two).  And that's assuming we lose to both Liverpool and Palace, and they beat both Burnley and Sheff Utd.  There is a reason the bookies have us as the red-hot favourite for 4th.

An awful lot has to go right for them to get ahead of us. It's not impossible, but it's in our own hands, which I much prefer to relying on them to lose. Win 3 games, we're guaranteed 4th.

If the situations were reversed, 90% of the people on this forum would have written off our chances of 4th, and rightly so.  And you know what, if they do the unthinkable and win all five games from now to the end of the season, they'd probably deserve 4th.

History says
Spurs will draw or lose those matches
And Villa win or draw at Brighton

I forecast Villa will match or better Spurs from one game v Brighton compared to their 2 games against Chelsea and  Liverpool.

I not interested in telling the I told you so come this time next week and that Spurs who defence and tactics and goal keeper can't be taken seriously will not win either of those games.

If I'm wrong I won't post till after Villa v Liverpool 13th May.
I backing the facts. And the comfort and joy they bring me.
Because our record is so poor at Palace going to last away match be too much to take !

I respect views  who think Spurs will win against Chelsea I just disagree with the posts and backing up with hard facts as well as my own forecasting that they will not win either matches v Chelsea or Liverpool

The reason I started the Champions League thread because I could see that it was time and now as Emery says we are contender and I always thought we would obtain champions league this season hence I started the discussion

You're either with Villa or why still go against !
Let's do this !
That is all I have to say till Friday.

Up the Villa

[Dave]

Another way of looking at it. Also taken from Twitter, also not checked

Our 'magic number' is 9. So any combination of Spurs dropped or Villa gained points equal to or greater than 9 will mean Champions League for us

We’ve only got 3 matches left, how do we generate more than 9?

We don't. But us gaining four points and Spurs dropping six is still an example of a combination of the above that is greater than nine.

[Dave]

From a Spurs forum.

"Are the current Spurs squad better than the Villa squad? I think yes. Outside of McGinn and Watkins who else would you want from Villa?"

I know all fans are deluded to a point, but that's a shocker.

Missing the point that the sum of the parts can be better than the individual parts.

They probably have got a good few players who would improve our squad, but that's not the point. Our squad is massively more than the sum of its parts and that's predominantly down to the genius of Emery.

Indeed. They're a good team, with a lot of very good players and a decent manager. But I imagine if you gave Emery the Spurs squad and Postecoglou the Villa squad, they'd be above us.

To put it another way, given I think everyone would say that Emery is a much better manager than Postecoglou, if nearly of all our players are so much better than all of theirs, why does it look likely that they are going to finish within a few points of our best season in twenty five years and still have an outside chance of finishing above us?

[Tony Daleys Shorts]

My guess is we’ll need to win at Palace on the last day of the season. But we could do ourselves a massive favour at Brighton, and Chelsea and Liverpool could do us a massive favour too.

By the way - I think those “X haven’t won at Y for 43 years” stats are the most pointless in football. And there’s some stiff competition.

It’s a strange one indeed that these historical trends play out with entirely different squads and managers over generations, but play out they do.

Can I explain it? No.

[chrisw1]

I like that analysis Dave.  Very simple and easy to understand.

[Demitri_C]

If we can get 3 points saturday i think it all but ends spurs hopes for 4th of they fail to beat chelsea

Spurs recent form has been poir. I mean they have had 2 weeks off they should have had no excuses for being so bad in that 1st half

[lovejoy]

Saying water boils at 100 degrees every time is different to saying Spurs lose to Chelsea every time.

[johnc]

If we can get 3 points saturday i think it all but ends spurs hopes for 4th of they fail to beat chelsea

Spurs recent form has been poir. I mean they have had 2 weeks off they should have had no excuses for being so bad in that 1st half

I dont think they have gone pear shaped yet!

[PaulWinch again]

If we can get 3 points saturday i think it all but ends spurs hopes for 4th of they fail to beat chelsea

Spurs recent form has been poir. I mean they have had 2 weeks off they should have had no excuses for being so bad in that 1st half

If they’re dishing out 3 points to us on Saturday that’ll be something…

[KRS]

Another way of looking at it. Also taken from Twitter, also not checked

Our 'magic number' is 9. So any combination of Spurs dropped or Villa gained points equal to or greater than 9 will mean Champions League for us

We’ve only got 3 matches left, how do we generate more than 9?

I haven’t checked all the combinations or permutations, but basically this theory holds true based on Villa points gained and Spurs points dropped.

As an example:
If Villa win one [3] of remaining 3 games, then we finish on 70pts…meaning Spurs must lose 2 [6] of their remaining 5 games against so the most they could finish on would be 69pts.

If Villa get 1 draw [1] then we finish on 68pts, then Spurs would need to lose 2 and draw 1 [8] to finish on 67pts.

Worst case scenario is that if we lose all 3 games (0) and finish on 67pts, then Spurs would need to lose 3 [9] or lose 1 and draw 3 [9] to finish on 66pts.

The maths do check out, but ultimately the more points we bank ourselves simply means that there is more leeway in good results allowable for Spurs…but it could be all over by Sunday evening if we beat Brighton and they lose to both Chelsea (Thursday) and Liverpool (Sunday).