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Author Topic: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire  (Read 4433 times)

Offline Ivo Stas

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Maybe this belongs in the match thread or the Dean Smith thread (or the ownership thread if there is one) but this isn't really about ranting about today's dog-awful performance (a repeat of Burnley away) or throwing sticks-and-stones at the likeable Dean Smith, more about the ethics and advisability of upgrading a manager (Southampton-Adkins-Pochettino)

For the first time today, I've entertained doubts about Dean Smith. Not my own doubts (they wouldn't matter) but doubts as to whether our ambitious owners (or their man-on-the-scene Purslow) will want to upgrade the manager in the summer (having already upgraded the players and the training ground, etc). I think the problem for Smith will be finishing below Leeds, it makes it starkly obvious how much a difference (in terms of accumulating points) an elite manager like Bielsa can make.

I'm just wondering how the decision looks from a cold-blooded American/Egyptian billionaire perspective.

In the Dean Smith pros column:
Season 1: promotion
Season 2: great escape (we WERE down with four to play)
Season 3: improvement and a 7-2
Our best signings are the ones with his fingerprints on (Konsa, Watkins, etc)
Our "worst" signings are the ones with a director-of-football feel (any of the Belgian league pick ups).
He's a villain through-and-through (has to count for something)
Good man-manager
He has recovered twice from awful periods of poor form (usually post-Xmas)
Clear improvement in various young players
Ross Barkley before Xmas
Lack of an obvious elite manager alternative
Pre-Xmas form and results.
The fear that sacking him would unsettle Grealish

In the Dean Smith minus column:
The sneaking suspicion that all the success is actually down to Grealish (see 10-game winning promotion run upon his return from injury).
Tactical inflexibility
Frustrating reluctance to introduce substitutes until too late.
The feeling that opposition managers overcome us with in-game or half-time changes and we don't react with tactical counter-measures.
Ross Barkley after Xmas
(Probably most importantly) the sense that if you want to be a top club, you need a proven elite manager
Post-Xmas form and results
The fear that sticking with him and failing to improve quick enough would unsettle Grealish

Personally, my rule of thumb in regards to losing confidence in a manager is when they start talking absolute rubbish in post-match press conferences. Dean Smith always seems to talk sense and reading his post-match transcripts is actually quite a healing process for me after defeats. But I doubt the owners read the Birmingham Mail..!

Like everyone, I hope Dean Smith is our manager for the next ten years and becomes the Brummie Alex Ferguson, but I'm genuinely curious what you all think our owners will be thinking in the summer.

Offline Risso

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2021, 10:11:31 PM »
A good balanced post. Nothing more than an utter guess, but Sawiris for me seems the bigger football fan of the two. I think he'd be minded to give Smith a bit more time. Edens on the other hand seems more of a the hard-nosed sports owner business bloke, so I think he'd fire Smith at the end of the season if there was somebody who was obviously a bigger name available. You also can't completely discount Purslow's voice in all this, and while it's not ultimately his decision I think he'd be in the 'stick' camp.

Offline OzVilla

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2021, 10:16:29 PM »
Smith gets the summer and starts next season but he’s burning through the goodwill. Our post Xmas slump will have been noted and impatient Billionaire owner just don’t do frustration. Not when it involves this kind of financial outlay.

 We’ve probably not come as far as we think we have.

Offline passport1

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2021, 10:32:25 PM »
I think its finely balanced. He has a happy knack of getting results when he needs them so who knows he might win the next two!
He will have been set targets which may even have been revised given the pre Christmas form. That may be his undoing.


Online algy

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2021, 11:00:55 PM »
I think he's safe for the moment, although the length of the slump has really put pressure on to start next season with a bang. If we're mid table at Christmas I can see him being given the boot.

Offline AV82EC

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2021, 11:07:08 PM »
The OP raises some good points here for pros and cons of Smith and my view is he won’t be sacked or changed this summer.

As with all Managers it’s all about results. If he doesn’t deliver what Owners/Purslow deem acceptable he’ll be gone. Fortunately I think they would take a much more dispassionate and objective view than the fans.

Online kippaxvilla2

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2021, 11:09:38 PM »
I’m pretty sure I heard Dean said they were targeting a top half finish a few weeks ago.

Offline Flin5tone

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2021, 11:12:58 PM »
We also have the experience of Craig Shakespeare and also John Terry  along with Dean that's a lot of experience and knowledge . I do think his in game Management is not great and the delay in making changes is very frustrating but a lot of our downfall has been stupid mistakes.

We need a higher quality of player , unfortunately finishing 11th in the Table will not attract the type of quality we need to Grab a Euro Spot next season .

Offline N'ZMAV

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2021, 11:14:49 PM »
Can you see us lifting a major trophy under Smith any time soon?

The owners will want some returns at some point.

Offline ROBBO

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2021, 11:18:34 PM »
I said a lot on this in the match report, I think it will all come down to a time frame. DS has met everything required up til now. First promotion (maybe a season early) then solidify our position with no worries of relegation, then a top four challenge. I believe the owners have made their ambitions clear, and while everything has gone to plan so far, the first sign we are in danger of slipping backwards he will be replaced.

Offline Ivo Stas

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2021, 11:32:16 PM »
Anything to be learnt from Wes Eden's (co-owned) Milwaukee Bucks basketball team's teams firing of their manager three years ago..? If you replace Giannis Antetokounmpo with Jack Grealish, I can see some parallels perhaps...

https://hashtagbasketball.com/milwaukee-bucks/content/bucks-fired-jason-kidd

Quote
Jason Kidd has been fired by the Milwaukee Bucks effective immediately. Joe Prunty is the interim head coach against the Suns tonight, but that's all we're hearing from the Bucks.

Kidd was praised for his role in the development of rising star Giannis Antetokounmpo.  He was the first to experiment with him at the point guard position, making him a modern-day Magic Johnson.  Kidd also received credit for Malcolm Brogdon winning Rookie of the Year as well as the development of Thon Maker.

Kidd led the Bucks to their first winning season since 2010 last season (42-40) and 2 playoff appearances (2015, 2017) that both resulted in first round exits.

Much of the criticism of Kidd is related to his actual coaching. He can be seen simply scratching his chin or holding his face instead of barking commands to the players.  His defensive schemes are brutal and ignore the concept of the pass completely.  His inbounds plays seem either cluttered or just entirely nonsensical and he makes questionable rotation decisions. 

The firing is almost surprising.  Reports suggested that Jason Kidd was well-liked by owners Wes Edens and Marc Lasry.  Many fans called for his firing last year or earlier this year to no avail.  Now those fans have their wish.  The Bucks have yet to name a "long-term" interim head coach.  As of right now, there are no candidates, and it is possible that they will wait until the summer to find a decent replacement for Kidd.

According to Chris Haynes of ESPN, Giannis Antetokounmpo was "devastated."  Kidd played a role in Giannis' development as a player, and for the young superstar, his firing is a harsh lesson of NBA reality.  This is a business and if you don't perform, you stand to lose your job.  This Bucks team will now have to try and keep their playoff hopes alive in the midst of this developing story.

Offline Ivo Stas

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2021, 11:37:31 PM »
A good balanced post. Nothing more than an utter guess, but Sawiris for me seems the bigger football fan of the two. I think he'd be minded to give Smith a bit more time. Edens on the other hand seems more of a the hard-nosed sports owner business bloke, so I think he'd fire Smith at the end of the season if there was somebody who was obviously a bigger name available. You also can't completely discount Purslow's voice in all this, and while it's not ultimately his decision I think he'd be in the 'stick' camp.

I don't think I've ever seen an interview with Sawiris, it seems to be Edens that does the talking. However, I believe the Sawiris is actually the majority owner. Probably very unfairly (and lets face it, Sawiris has been brilliant for the Villa), the only impression I have of Sawiris is a slightly worrying rumour that because he was an Arsenal fan he wanted Thierry Henry as manager after Bruce was sacked. I think you are correct though in that they would both defer to Purslow on any decision (it seemed to be Purslow who turned against Pitarch) so I guess it all depends on the relationship that Smith has with him (and Smith seems to me to be someone who forms bonds with his colleagues).

Offline Ivo Stas

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2021, 12:03:08 AM »
From a financial point-of-view, chopping and changing manager's is expensive. It only makes sense if:

a) the current manager was clearly a bad choice (e.g. Venglos).
b) the current manager has clearly reached the end of the road (e.g. Lambert)
c) there is an obvious elite upgrade available (e.g. replacing Frank Lampard with Thomas Tuchel)

Smith was a good choice at the time and, I would argue, has plenty of mileage left. So that just leaves "c"...

I've heard that Bielsa is yet to re-commit to Leeds (apparently he has one-year contracts), he is clearly brilliant (although perhaps the sort of eccentric genius who would drop Grealish).

I also saw a click-bait article linking the Wolves manager (Nuno Espírito Santo) with us in the summer, although its debatable that he would be an upgrade.

Casting my mind around, I guess the obvious available elite upgrade would be Rafa Benitez. I reckon he would come too...

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2021, 12:37:44 AM »
Yeah that's really interesting to read Ivo, thanks for posting.

I don't follow any American sports at all and couldn't care less but either read on here or elsewhere not so long ago Wes sacked the coach of his basketball team even though he'd done a Dean Smith style job.

However in terms of odd interviews he's given in last two years he's been more talking about growing the club and changing the transfer strategy so possibly won't push for manager to be replaced in same way while he still feels the club needs to be build up and so foundations are rock solid to withstand sudden managerial departures.

Interesting to see how the dynamic develops if big decisions need to be made in next two seasons. They've done brilliantly to keep getting Jack to sign new deals in last 3 years but might find the next time they go and ask him the question he might not be as willing. Think Purslow with all his experience in the game is hugely important aswell in keeping things ticking along, important to have him considering we've had the likes of Tom Fox and Faulkner as CEOS in last decade and the difference is stark.

Offline Ad@m

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Re: Put yourself in the mind of an Egyptian/American billionaire
« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2021, 07:05:38 AM »
Good post but I'm not sure the Leeds reference is entirely fair. Plenty of shit teams have a good first season in the top flight - look at Sheffield United. If Leeds can replicate it next season then fair enough.

 


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