Ollie Watkins

[RamboandBruno]

Catch 22: If Watkins didn't miss his sitters would the defence be under such pressure? Overall he's limited, brilliant at finding the space, average at best finishing the opportunities he's given. For me right now Duran in the last few weeks has put a shift in and would be first choice between the two.

If Ollie didn't miss a few chances we consider 'easier', then he wouldn't still be here.  He'd have gone a couple of years ago, for huge money.  Because everything else about his game is elite level.  If his touch was slightly better, and his finishing slightly more instinctive, he'd have been a £100m player two summers ago. 

He is what he is, an excellent forward for a team challenging for European places, who'll score a decent number of goals, help create a decent number more, and also work his arse off while doing it.   We're very lucky to have him.

It's also true he squandered a couple of excellent chances that could have wrapped up the game last night, despite having a goal and an assist.  I don't think it's unfair to criticise him for missing chances while also acknowledging everything else he does well.

This essentially sums up the Ollie situation perfectly.

[PaulWinch again]

None of his misses yesterday were “sitters”. If you’re expecting a striker to score a hatrick every game or score a really high percentage of their chances on a regular basis you’re just not being realistic. It doesn’t happen except sometimes with absolute elite level strikers (e.g. Haaland, Ronaldo).

Like I said people are criticising him last night, but if he did what he did last night every week he’d have 38 goals and assists. He is not the issue here.

[Rigadon]

He is never going to be any different and last season was probably his peak.  That’s not a criticism and smithy’s post sums up how I feel about it. 

[German James]

It all reminds me a bit of the Heskey situation. Ollie's professionalism, workrate, hold-up and positional play are all exemplary. But he's not a natural finisher and, sadly, that's a neccessary asset in a striker.

[Dave]

78 goals for Villa in four and a half seasons is a bit like 14 goals for Villa in three and a half seasons?

Okay.

[PaulWinch again]

Indeed - hasn’t Ollie got 150 odd career goals in 400-450 odd games. Heskey got a similar amount in about 750. Not comparable at all.

[German James]

78 goals for Villa in four and a half seasons is a bit like 14 goals for Villa in three and a half seasons?

Okay.

I'm not talking about stats. I'm talking about the low expectations of them both in what should be goal-scoring opportunities.

[PaulWinch again]

Also I don’t think it’s a “necessary” requirement for a striker. It’d be handy but Ollie’s record for Villa proves how valuable he’s been. We would not be in the Champions League but for his brilliance last season.

[German James]

It's not a neccessary requirement for a striker to score the sort of chances that he's been missing?

[PaulWinch again]

No it’s not, because literally no striker in the history of the game takes all their chances. The idea that he missed a whole host of sitters isn’t accurate, a couple where decent chances but it’s not like he was 6 yards out under no pressure with the ball slowly arriving at his feet.

Maybe I’ve missed all the strikers who score a hundred plus goals each season with all the chances they get.

[German James]

No it’s not, because literally no striker in the history of the game takes all their chances. The idea that he missed a whole host of sitters isn’t accurate, a couple where decent chances but it’s not like he was 6 yards out under no pressure with the ball slowly arriving at his feet.

Maybe I’ve missed all the strikers who score a hundred plus goals each season with all the chances they get.

I never said he should be expected to take all his chances - how to define a "chance", for one thing. The current problems clearly aren't all his fault either, but I don't think it's too contraversial to suggest he should be making more of being through on goal.

[PaulTheVillan]

Good pen & assist.

Missed 2 chances I felt he should have scored.

Typical Ollie.

He’s due a 10 game goalless run soon.

[Dave]

...I don't think it's too contraversial to suggest he should be making more of being through on goal.

I wouldn't say that's controversial either. I'd imagine that's a pretty universal opinion.

That's quite a big leap though from "it all reminds me a bit of the Heskey situation", which I would wager is not.

[PaulWinch again]

I’ve just had a look at some stats, and I’ll take it with a pinch of salt, but his XG is 0.58 which puts him at 7.6 goals this year. That says to me he’s slightly outperforming versus quality of chance. That feels about right as well, 8 goals in 19 games when he hasn’t started recently is pretty bloody decent. Any forward averaging better than a goal every 3 games is doing pretty well.

[eamonn]

I wonder what the xG is when he steps-up to take a penalty!

Seriously though, I'm definitely opposed to the argument that he should tuck-away every chance he gets. It's just not realistic . Even St Jhon has missed a few.

Ollie should score more but as has been said, if he did, he'd likely be at Arsenal. His output last season was outstanding. His assist last night sublime. He's due a run of goals from open play now and I expect him to crack on with it against Lesta.