The Run IN

[Ian.]

So to summarise Eric, the mathematician in you, are we well and truly fooked?

[Risso]

He's allocated Liverpool 1 point, Man City 2 points and Norwich 20 points etc.  So Liverpool away is 2 points (1st in the table, so 1 point, doubled for away games) and Watford at home is 17 points (17th in the table and at home).  Do the same for the teams around us, and there you are. 

Very good work, although I'd have reversed the points, and had 20 for Liverpool in 1st and 1 for Norwich in 2nd, but that's just window dressing.  Probably doubling the points for away games is excessively weighting the difficulty in those games, but given our record, possibly not!

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

How difficult the run-in is depends on the results in the next 2 games against teams around us. Imo we need 2 wins (6 points) from watford and Bournemouth. Achieve this and we'll be well placed on 28 points to kick on with 13 games remaining. We need some runs of consecutive wins and/or an unbeaten run of form. We also need some strikers ffs!
Lose the next 2 or only get 1 point and the game may well be up.

[Legion]

Thread of the month.

[Brassneck]

Just concentrate on our own games.  Those around us dropping points will be a bonus but if we can win 5 out of 15 (along with a couple of draws) then we should be safe.  6 wins would almost certainly guarantee it.

It's in our own hands with a hell of a long way to go.

[ChicagoLion]

Confused Bournemouth 164.

[Breezeblock]

Is it a part of the body?

[Pete3206]

Is it Al Pacino time yet?

[Brassneck]

Villa can stay up by just winning 3 more matches and having  5 or 6 or 7 draws.
That gives 36-38pts total which is enough to survive 
That means it's 14-16 points in 15 matches

It might not be enough to survive this season. It could go higher, unless 3 from Brighton, Bournemouth, Burnley, West Ham & Watford only win 3 as well. I'd aim for 40-42 points with anything under being a bonus.

[KevinGage]

Villa can stay up by just winning 3 more matches and having  5 or 6 or 7 draws.
That gives 36-38pts total which is enough to survive 
That means it's 14-16 points in 15 matches

10 wins will normally see a side stay up. But with our lack of draws thus far, that might need it to be 11 in our case.

Looked at Bournemouth's fixtures a few weeks back and they have an easier run in than us. Ditto Burnleh. 

Was hoping Newcastle might be dragged back into it but that looks unlikely now.

[Footy-Vill]

7 wins and 15 draws Is fine

[eamonn]

Yes but for once in our lives Villa don't "do" draws anymore, yesterday being an anomalous example.

[ktvillan]

I reckon someone could go down with 40 points or more this year, it's the most competitive PL since Spammers went down with 42 points.   Apart from Liverpool who don;t lose to anyone,  and us who shit the bed playing anyone above 10th, it seems any team can beat any other on any given day.

[Mellin]

I'd imagine we have the hardest run in. After our next two games we'll have played everyone in the bottom 7 twice, bar West Ham and ourselves. Could do with being in a stronger position after Bournemouth. On the flip side we've played Man City twice too.

Time to fix up (I think we will).

[Smithy]

I'd imagine we have the hardest run in. After our next two games we'll have played everyone in the bottom 7 twice, bar West Ham and ourselves. Could do with being in a stronger position after Bournemouth. On the flip side we've played Man City twice too.

Time to fix up (I think we will).

The strange thing about the league being so tight this year, is that the "bottom 7" as you describe aren't really cut away from the rest.  Add three points to the team at the top of that seven and you leap five places.  Add another three and you're one point outside Europe.

The way it's going someone could get relegated on 40-something points, and get into Europe in the low 50's.