This is the First Team squad now;
GK; Heaton, Steer, Nyland, Kalinic, (Sarkic)
CB; Chester, Hause, Mings, Konsa, Engels
LB; Taylor, Targett
RB; Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM; Tshibola, Luiz, Nakamba
CM; McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM; Grealish, Lansbury, Jota, (O’Hare)
AL; El Ghazi,
AR; Trezeguet, (Green)
ATT; Wesley, Kodjia, Davis, (Hogan)
Players; 27 (+5)
Let’s make a couple of simplifying assumptions;
- Plainly we have U23 and academy players who we could call on if needed but let’s assume we don’t need to.
- Of course we could use any of the players on that list who are at the club at the moment but let’s assume Tshibola and Kalinic leave us soon so will play no part.
- We could probably recall the loan players if in extreme need but let’s assume we don’t need to so they play no part either.
So, 25 players to choose from.
We have played 3 games so far this season and have 2 more games to play until the international break, 3 each in September, October and November, then 7 in December with one more on January 1st before the ten-day winter break. Then it’s 3 more in the rest of January, 4 in February and 3 each in March, April and May. If we assume a win against Crewe this week then a decent draw which we win but then go no further after getting a Top 6 team and also that in the FA cup we get a reasonable draw which we win followed by a shitty draw which we lose then we have 4 games to insert into that schedule (3 before Christmas and one after).
This means a total of 22 games until the winter break (17 afterwards). The most condensed period by far is December with effectively 2 games a week for 4 weeks straight; that’s when the most pressure on squad resources will be and when we’ll have to cope with stretched resources.
One more simplifying assumption before we look at the detail;
- We experience no major injuries in the next 4 months. Sure there are niggles, sure there are tweaks which means any individual player misses a couple of weeks but apart from that we have no major holes punched in our squad coverage. If that does happen we have real problems and will struggle to cope. Results will be poor etc.
The coverage by squad role is pretty good.
At GK we have 2 good choices and at least one backup; more than enough for major games and all the assumptions we’ve made. We can give Heaton some rest at appropriate points if needed with no worries and cover for him and Steer if form or short-term injury strikes. No real worries here.
Same for CB; same for RB and same for LB. In all but the most unlucky circumstances our whole defensive setup is covered for whatever hits before January. This is a measure of the excellence that the Summer transfer period delivered. The coaching staff can concentrate on building understanding among the players, developing those who need skills development and watching for signs of loss-of-form and tiredness knowing they have enough cover. They just need to get the right players available for the most important games. Even with Chester coming back from injury we should be comfortable here.
It’s tempting to say the same about the midfield but I see a small cloud here. Defensively we have Doug and Marv with Conor as cover and it’s true to say that Marv hasn’t played yet so we shouldn’t count our chickens before they’re hatched but absent major injury this is a reasonably comfortable position to be in. And at attacking midfield we have real strength and quality with Jack, Jota and Lansbury with Conor and Doug as cover; not too shabby at all.
It’s in central midfield that my slight concern exists; you could say that SJM has plenty of partners and cover in Jack, Doug, Conor and Barny but just look at how many times we’ve mentioned the same players. Doug can play all 3 roles in midfield but is our mainstay at DM, Jack can play 2 of them but is our first choice for attacking creativity and guile, Conor is cover for all 3 of them and will be called upon frequently, Jota can only play well in attack and is no real option elsewhere in midfield, which means that we will need to rely on Lansbury and Barney to provide a reasonable amount of cover for SJM as the engine in midfield and I don’t think they will be up to that demand.
Barney wants to be off and the club have sanctioned it so his heart will not be here even if his body is after the European transfer window closes and I’ve never warmed as much to Lansbury as Deano seems to have done. But we WILL need quality coverage in that central midfield coming from people other than the mainstays who will be playing most of the time anyway. So either those two will need to show us something they have failed to do so far or we will need a loan to cover us for the period up to the next transfer window. I hope we are working on that and will get someone in from the continent.
This issue is most likely to become acute in that hectic 8-game period in December and into the New Year. I can see problems if we’re relying on one or both (as a result of minor injury and loss of form) of Barney and Lansbury playing in a midfield which also includes Conor doing one of his regular covering stints for Jack or SJM. We can’t afford to face any team in the PL with that midfield and expect a point home or away.
Most people on this site would expect to hear that the biggest issue for squad management up to the winter break is up front but I’m not as downcast as most; we have 2 players who can cover for Wes (one is slightly injured at the moment but the point stands) and we have 4 players who can play either side of the hold-up man (Kodjia can play left-sided attacker occasionally when fit again). So we’re covered. Yes, yes, I know, Davis is not PL quality yet and Kodjia is a different sort of player so we need another striker. I agree. I hope we buy one in January if the right player is available and he wants to come here but in the period until then we have enough cover with the formation we play at the moment. And that’s the other way of dealing with any particular game when we have a less than optimal set of choices to make; we can flex our formation once in a while. It’ll keep the PL analysts on their toes as well so no bad thing.
So I’m not as hysterically losing my mind about the striking options as many people on here appear to be. We’ll buy in January and we’ll get enough points to keep us up so chill out.
The real job is to juggle form, fitness, tiredness, formation, mental preparedness, skills development and opposition tactics and produce a team from the 25 players we have to give us a good chance of a result. NOT an easy job but I suppose that’s why our coaching staff get paid the big money, isn’t it? 😊
