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Author Topic: Realistic Expectations  (Read 112470 times)

Offline dave.woodhall

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #570 on: March 08, 2021, 08:18:40 PM »
Sometimes we forget that the Premier League is such a high standard that the best in their positions here are by default amongst the best in the world. 

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #571 on: March 08, 2021, 08:33:44 PM »
We've got good players in most positions now.

Trick now is to sign even more of them so we actually have some game turning options on the bench.

Realistically we're not getting into europe anytime soon though while our backup strikers consist of one who hasn't scored a league goal since 2017 and the other been injured for 14 months so we have to give him time to get back up to speed.

Was having a debate this afternoon with someone somewhere else on the web and he was saying we shouldn't sign another decent striker as it would "hurt Ollie's feelings" given according to DS he dosen't like playing out wide.

I say tough, that's not the mentality we need. I doubt Tuchel gives a stuff about hurting Tammy's feelings by leaving him out of the Chelsea 11 constantly atm, he's doing the best for the club and results are there for all to see.

If Tammy or Giroud suddenly decided they wanted to join us I'd sign either without hesitation and work the rest out, Ollie would still play loads at CF.

Think we're at the stage where signing a Giroud and plucking another name Riyad Mahrez would get us very close to top 4 but I'm just not convinced we have that pull as a club just yet.

Everton have over last 18 months improved their quality in terms of signings and they've improved significantly but still short of top 4 when you see them play tonight but that's a good yardstick for us. We are getting there.

richtheholtender

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #572 on: March 08, 2021, 08:44:43 PM »
We've got good players in most positions now.

Trick now is to sign even more of them so we actually have some game turning options on the bench.

Realistically we're not getting into europe anytime soon though while our backup strikers consist of one who hasn't scored a league goal since 2017 and the other been injured for 14 months so we have to give him time to get back up to speed.

Was having a debate this afternoon with someone somewhere else on the web and he was saying we shouldn't sign another decent striker as it would "hurt Ollie's feelings" given according to DS he dosen't like playing out wide.

I say tough, that's not the mentality we need. I doubt Tuchel gives a stuff about hurting Tammy's feelings by leaving him out of the Chelsea 11 constantly atm, he's doing the best for the club and results are there for all to see.

If Tammy or Giroud suddenly decided they wanted to join us I'd sign either without hesitation and work the rest out, Ollie would still play loads at CF.

Think we're at the stage where signing a Giroud and plucking another name Riyad Mahrez would get us very close to top 4 but I'm just not convinced we have that pull as a club just yet.

Everton have over last 18 months improved their quality in terms of signings and they've improved significantly but still short of top 4 when you see them play tonight but that's a good yardstick for us. We are getting there.




Ollie can play out wide so his game time won’t be effected too much. There will always be place for him.

Offline gpbarr

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #573 on: March 08, 2021, 10:07:31 PM »
We are well short of a top 6 squad IMO - need more depth in defense, a lot more power and creativity in the middle and 2/3 genuine PL striking options up front - that’s two summers worth investment right there so for me, it’ll be another solid season next before we can hope to really be in the mix

Offline Mister E

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #574 on: March 09, 2021, 09:14:54 AM »
We have been where we were because we’ve had dog shit managers for a long time...

... We have got to raise the bar and stop wallowing at where we’ve come from in the last few years and start looking at where we’re going
We have been where we were because we’ve had dog-shit owners who've hired dog-shit managers.
It would appear we now have owners who know a thing or two about running sports businesses and have the dosh to deliver.
TV made the point about Tuchel's apparent magic wand effect on Chelsea. It's a good case study because he has indeed put Lampard's time at Chelsea into perspective. Also, see how Ancelotti has turned Everton into a very decent team.
The great thing about where we are now is that if we find Smith reaches his natural ceiling, the owners will doubtless not waste time in 'cutting him unnecessary slack' but will bring in the equivalent of a Tuchel or Ancelotti. That may sound harsh, but it gives me great confidence to know that we will not risk a return to mediocrity because the owner either doesn't recognise a need for change or be too attached to the status quo.
The next transfer window will be an important one for us: will we cautiously consolidate or ambitiously stretch toward a much-improved 2021-22 season?

Offline Mister E

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #575 on: March 09, 2021, 09:18:28 AM »
We are well short of a top 6 squad IMO - need more depth in defense, a lot more power and creativity in the middle and 2/3 genuine PL striking options up front - that’s two summers worth investment right there so for me, it’ll be another solid season next before we can hope to really be in the mix
You're right, although we (Sanson, Watkins, Cash), Everton (Godfrey, Dacoure, Digne) and Wet Spam (Soufal, Soucek, Bowen) have demonstrated admirably that good and improving EPL players don't need to cost the earth.

Offline eamonn

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #576 on: March 09, 2021, 09:24:28 AM »
Tuchel's been there ten minutes. Let's see how he does after his new cat bounce wears off.

Darren Farley's impression of Lampard is genius so I'm gutted Frank was sacked.

Offline LeeB

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #577 on: March 09, 2021, 10:07:56 AM »
Tuchel's been there ten minutes. Let's see how he does after his new cat bounce wears off.

Darren Farley's impression of Lampard is genius so I'm gutted Frank was sacked.

I haven't seen it but I'd wager Sam Delaney's version of him on Top Flight Time Machine is much better.

Offline algy

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #578 on: March 09, 2021, 10:09:03 AM »
We have been where we were because we’ve had dog shit managers for a long time...

... We have got to raise the bar and stop wallowing at where we’ve come from in the last few years and start looking at where we’re going
We have been where we were because we’ve had dog-shit owners who've hired dog-shit managers.
It would appear we now have owners who know a thing or two about running sports businesses and have the dosh to deliver.
TV made the point about Tuchel's apparent magic wand effect on Chelsea. It's a good case study because he has indeed put Lampard's time at Chelsea into perspective. Also, see how Ancelotti has turned Everton into a very decent team.
The great thing about where we are now is that if we find Smith reaches his natural ceiling, the owners will doubtless not waste time in 'cutting him unnecessary slack' but will bring in the equivalent of a Tuchel or Ancelotti. That may sound harsh, but it gives me great confidence to know that we will not risk a return to mediocrity because the owner either doesn't recognise a need for change or be too attached to the status quo.
The next transfer window will be an important one for us: will we cautiously consolidate or ambitiously stretch toward a much-improved 2021-22 season?
I see our management model differently.  It feels like we don't have a traditional manager.  Instead, we've got a recruitment & analysis team, and a coaching team.  Both can have their performance measured to some extent without using a league table.

Recruitment team - have the players they've identified increased in market value (regardless of whether we've signed them or not)?  For players we've signed, do the real life stats (from both games & training) match up with the ones they'd predicted?  Are they correctly identifying the opponents weaknesses?  Are they correctly identifying our weaknesses?

Coaching team - are players stats improving?  Are they improving at the things they're being coached to do better?  Is the player's decision making improving?  Is our game management improving?

I suppose my point is that - obviously in the end it comes down to league results - but I suspect the owners wouldn't sack Dean, say, if he's improving as a head coach even if the results in a particular season don't quite go our way.  We'll be able to say how much of our league position is down to hard work, and how much is due to good fortune.

I think/hope we'll see much longer term planning at Villa than simply sacking a manager because there's been a run of half a dozen results that haven't gone our way.

Offline ROBBO

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #579 on: March 09, 2021, 12:01:54 PM »
We have players like Trez and El Ghazi that can fill a position but neither are the quality we need to compete at the top. I suppose we will see how ambitious our owners are in the summer break.

Offline Mister E

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #580 on: March 09, 2021, 01:26:25 PM »
Tuchel's been there ten minutes. Let's see how he does after his new cat bounce wears off.
The interesting thing about what Tuchel has done in his short Chelsea career is that he has rotated his team frequently in the dozen or so games, and yet the same resolute and ball-playing style of football has been delivered. Yes, there's a long way to go before he can be held up as an exemplar, but I just thought that the way he's taken a group of players and imposed a clear playing style on them is interesting.

Offline Mister E

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #581 on: March 09, 2021, 01:30:21 PM »
We have been where we were because we’ve had dog shit managers for a long time...
... We have got to raise the bar and stop wallowing at where we’ve come from in the last few years and start looking at where we’re going
We have been where we were because we’ve had dog-shit owners who've hired dog-shit managers.
It would appear we now have owners who know a thing or two about running sports businesses and have the dosh to deliver.
TV made the point about Tuchel's apparent magic wand effect on Chelsea. It's a good case study because he has indeed put Lampard's time at Chelsea into perspective. Also, see how Ancelotti has turned Everton into a very decent team.
The great thing about where we are now is that if we find Smith reaches his natural ceiling, the owners will doubtless not waste time in 'cutting him unnecessary slack' but will bring in the equivalent of a Tuchel or Ancelotti. That may sound harsh, but it gives me great confidence to know that we will not risk a return to mediocrity because the owner either doesn't recognise a need for change or be too attached to the status quo.
The next transfer window will be an important one for us: will we cautiously consolidate or ambitiously stretch toward a much-improved 2021-22 season?
I see our management model differently.  It feels like we don't have a traditional manager.  Instead, we've got a recruitment & analysis team, and a coaching team.  Both can have their performance measured to some extent without using a league table.
Recruitment team - have the players they've identified increased in market value (regardless of whether we've signed them or not)?  For players we've signed, do the real life stats (from both games & training) match up with the ones they'd predicted?  Are they correctly identifying the opponents weaknesses?  Are they correctly identifying our weaknesses?

Coaching team - are players stats improving?  Are they improving at the things they're being coached to do better?  Is the player's decision making improving?  Is our game management improving?

I suppose my point is that - obviously in the end it comes down to league results - but I suspect the owners wouldn't sack Dean, say, if he's improving as a head coach even if the results in a particular season don't quite go our way.  We'll be able to say how much of our league position is down to hard work, and how much is due to good fortune.

I think/hope we'll see much longer term planning at Villa than simply sacking a manager because there's been a run of half a dozen results that haven't gone our way.
Yes, you make a good point, algy. All decent clubs have the support teams in place to enable the Head Coach to make better decisions; and Smith seems to have a very inclusive approach to his decision-making. And, yes, the current owners may have a more 'forgiving' style (I believe Edens has particularly taken leaps of faith with the Bucks and been accordingly rewarded): I suspect they're also shrewd enough to know when someone has reached their capability-ceiling and act accordingly.

Offline Risso

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #582 on: March 09, 2021, 01:45:08 PM »
Didn't Wes fire a Bucks coach who was personally a good friend of his? My impression of him is that he's not afraid to make difficult decisions at all.

Offline Pat Mustard

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #583 on: March 09, 2021, 01:49:16 PM »
To be perfectly honest, I would say that where we are currently is at the absolute upper limit of any reasonable expectations we might have had when Smith took charge, and he has earned the right to keep his job for the whole of next season as a minimum regardless of any blips we go through. 

We can already point to two or three occasions in the time he's been here where we've been told he has reached his limit (the run just before the 10 game winning streak in the Championship, early last season and again in the first few games after lockdown), and yet each time we have gone on to get better.  He is still learning the ropes at the top level, but he has still tactically out-thought a number of supposedly world-class coaches, and with relatively limited resources at his disposal.  Now we are finally getting a squad together that is worthy of the top-half of the Premier League he absolutely deserves the right to get a proper go of it, in a normal season where the crowds are back.

In all businesses, but especially football, you want to get someone who's on the way up rather than the way down.  There is nothing in Dean Smith's trajectory that says he has reached his limit yet, and whilst it may be one year too soon this time round, I reckon next year we have a shot at European qualification and/or winning a trophy.

Offline Mister E

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Re: Realistic Expectations
« Reply #584 on: March 09, 2021, 02:17:24 PM »
Didn't Wes fire a Bucks coach who was personally a good friend of his? My impression of him is that he's not afraid to make difficult decisions at all.
You may be right. As I said "the current owners may have a more 'forgiving' style (I believe Edens has particularly taken leaps of faith with the Bucks and been accordingly rewarded): I suspect they're also shrewd enough to know when someone has reached their capability-ceiling and act accordingly."

 


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