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Author Topic: Dean Smith - Confirmed  (Read 605464 times)

Online SamTheMouse

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9585 on: July 16, 2020, 10:55:57 AM »
So that's once it's worked, but it's something we have to do.
I so wanted this to work with Smith, not because heís a Villa fan and a ďnice blokeĒ but because his style of play was a vast improvement on what went before. That hasnít continued in the Premier League sadly but if he showed any sign of an improvement I would love him to stay. I canít see it though. Can you see where heís improved?? What are your reasons for retaining him in the Premier League??

Because if we stay up he'll have done everything asked of him in both of his seasons, with a cup final appearance as a bonus. More importantly, we have to get out of the 'rip it up and start again' mentality of the past decade.

I have misgivings about Smith, but I think I agree with this.

Maybe it's time to give someone a real chance to build a side organically, instead of expecting to buy success off the peg. He's still a relatively young manager and this has been his first season in the top division. I think there's is still potential for improvement. That applies to most of our players too.

Obviously there's no guarantee it would work, but if we don't try we'll never know.

Online AsTallAsLions

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9586 on: July 16, 2020, 11:00:24 AM »
Thomas Frank was his assistant there with an eye on taking the job for continuity when he went though. And the recruitment at Brentford was never the job of the manager and still isn't, they have a system and metrics to choose their targets.

Moneyball has worked so much better for other clubs than it ever has for us
I would have thought one of the reasons is you need to do it from a position of stability - drip feed new players into an established squad and let them settle and develop at their own pace.  It's just bloody madness to expect to be able to do it when you are replacing half the first team.

I think you're probably right there

Online paul_e

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9587 on: July 16, 2020, 11:14:46 AM »
Not just that, if you want to implement a system of bringing through youngsters, selling for a profit and replacing then you have to give it time. The problem we have is that everyone buys into the idea until we lose a few games and then people lose their nerve, fans call for Big Sam to save the season, managers start picking based on experience and owners give the funds to bring through a few older heads and the whole thing falls apart within a year.

If we want a team full of kids who've come through our academy and then been added to with quality young signings then we need to give them time and not write those players off after 10-15 games, not write the manager off after 6months and not start calling the owners and board out as smarmy and bullshitters whenever we get upset.

Online AsTallAsLions

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9588 on: July 16, 2020, 11:18:38 AM »
Right but it's not as simple as buying young players who need time to develop and letting them improve - they won't improve if they're not being coached right, and meanwhile the short-term results won't be as good as they can be if the players aren't deployed in a sensible system with cohesive game plan.

Offline chrisw1

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9589 on: July 16, 2020, 11:37:47 AM »
You need to do it along side a few older heads - at least at first.  It shouldn't be all or nothing.  Whether the time to try to start it is immediately after promotion is also something they should have considered.

Online paul_e

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9590 on: July 16, 2020, 11:56:35 AM »
Right but it's not as simple as buying young players who need time to develop and letting them improve - they won't improve if they're not being coached right, and meanwhile the short-term results won't be as good as they can be if the players aren't deployed in a sensible system with cohesive game plan.

Of course it's not that simple, but even if you get everything right you need to give it a few years to really see the value. At a smaller club like Southampton or Brentford I think the fans are more willing to give that time than we are.

Offline aj2k77

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9591 on: July 16, 2020, 12:08:46 PM »
We've been abysmal on the pitch for 8 months, I've seen nothing in our football to suggest the manager can improve the kids and to be a stable club.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9592 on: July 16, 2020, 12:49:18 PM »
Buying young players and selling them for a profit has nothing to do wth the moneyball approach used by Billy Beane.

Online AsTallAsLions

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9593 on: July 16, 2020, 12:55:43 PM »
Buying young players and selling them for a profit has nothing to do wth the moneyball approach used by Billy Beane.

You are correct about young players, but not about increasing the market value of the assets.

"The Moneyball thesis is simple: Using statistical analysis, small-market teams can compete by buying assets that are undervalued by other teams and selling ones that are overvalued by other teams." - The Economics of Moneyball

MLB players regularly play on until their late thirties, whereas the mean average age of top flight football players is much lower, so it stands to reason that the easiest way to increase an "undervalued" football player's value is to buy them young and develop them.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9594 on: July 16, 2020, 01:03:06 PM »
Beane signed David Justice, age has nothing to do with it. Resale value had nothing to do with it. He'd have signed a 50 year old with one leg if his OBP warranted it. The overvalue was to do with 'sexy' players like Damon, or closers who could have their numbers inflated if used correctly.

Online ozzjim

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9595 on: July 16, 2020, 01:10:20 PM »
Re Bruce, he lucked out getting Saint Maximan. Put him in our team all season, we are safe now.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 01:15:54 PM by ozzjim »

Online Chico Hamilton III

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9596 on: July 16, 2020, 01:37:42 PM »
It's all well and good focusing on bringing young players through but we're short of any decent Premiere League experienced leaders. Someone who knows all the tricks in the book and is familiar with dark arts of Premiere League football. Although in recent years we seem to have bought the very worst examples of this in Richards, Lescott, Drinkwater etc.

I'm trying to think of the last "experienced" player we brought in who actually improved the team. John Terry, i suppose. He surprised me at how good a player he was.   

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9597 on: July 16, 2020, 01:44:44 PM »
Heaton, Snodgrass, Elmo, Jedi, Chester, Albert, Kod are a few more.

Online AsTallAsLions

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9598 on: July 16, 2020, 02:05:29 PM »
Beane signed David Justice, age has nothing to do with it. Resale value had nothing to do with it. He'd have signed a 50 year old with one leg if his OBP warranted it. The overvalue was to do with 'sexy' players like Damon, or closers who could have their numbers inflated if used correctly.

Okay. So, getting back to my point which you ignored, when you apply the methodology to football, which is naturally a very different sport with different mechanics, parameters and metrics, the Moneyball approach substantively changes. Edens, Purslow, Suso clearly agreed to approach it as a "let's buy relatively young based on analytics of potential and sell for a bigger price in a massively inflated market". Which other teams have done also.

It's essentially the same approach as Paddy Riley's - which also failed Aston Villa.

Offline tomd2103

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9599 on: July 16, 2020, 02:07:47 PM »
Beane signed David Justice, age has nothing to do with it. Resale value had nothing to do with it. He'd have signed a 50 year old with one leg if his OBP warranted it. The overvalue was to do with 'sexy' players like Damon, or closers who could have their numbers inflated if used correctly.

More to do with salaries in American sports than transfer fees as well. 

 


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