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What a league the championship is!!
Having caught up with results well its quite something .
Btw I use this thread in both villa aspect but also detailing championship situation overall and especially atm around play offs who are to get in them but with eye in relegation teams that matter in matches v championship rivals for play off places.
Sometimes think confusion as am mentioning other clubs and what they are doing not necessarily with immediate or so much bearing to villa - think we finish 5th or maybe 4th but interesting to see what happened with other clubs
I like this league and will now kinda miss it if villa get what we all want!
However It seems more enjoyable than premier atm but maybe that's because villa are in it !
But also promote and relegation seems super exciting in comparison.
I think the lower leagues 2 may have some excitement but not as aware main focus championship and premier league in UK.
After the results I don't think need to wait till Easter Monday but my point stood that was pending teams to be discounted due to outcomes.
The matches meant that Sheffield Wed and Forest (4 defeats in a row ) and hull and preston despite a great 4-0 win (include sone wonder strokes by villa boy Robinson) out of it now as far concerned. Though not totally matchmatical it's high probability unlikely all 7 points off with 3 to go.
I now like to include Leeds and Sheff utd for play off and their fixtures
I would have included Norwich had they lost!
Results
West Brom 3-2 Hull
Bristol City 1-1 Reading
Birmingham 2-2 Derby
Middlesbrough 1-0 Stoke
Sheffield Utd 2-0 Forest
Preston 4-0 Ipswich
Table wise.
1. Norwich 87
2 Sheff Utd 82
3 Leeds 82
4. West Brom 76
5. Aston Villa 72
6. Middlesbrough 67
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7 Bristol City 66
8 Derby 64
Means we made 70+ points ahead of my initial forecast and at 72 only 3 needed to reach 75 however think villa could achieve now higher total that my forecast of 74/75 points .
Fixtures
April 22 Easter Mon :Aston Villa v Millwall
Reading v WBA
Nottm Forest v Middlesbrough
Sheff Wed v Bristol City
Derby v QPR
Hull v Sheff Utd
Brentford v Leeds
When villa play Leeds 28th April
On the Saturday fixtures:
Bristol City v Derby
Middlesbrough v Reading
West Brom v Rotherham
Sheff Utd v Ipswich
Norwich v Blackburn
Tues 30th April
Millwall v Bristol City
Wed 1st May
Swansea v Derby
Final games Sunday 5TH May!
Aston Villa v Norwich
Derby v WBA
Rotherham v Middlesbrough
Hull v Bristol City
Ipswich v Leeds
Stoke v Sheff Utd
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I’m gutted !
You have been very generous to the top 4. There is no way teams in 3rd and 4th are going to finish on 93 and 87. That's autopro points and Norwich are not going to hit 100. We will finish on 75 and 5th. Boro will not finish in top 6. Other than that your forecast is quite accurate.
Given our last few performances and results I’ve been telling mates to get geared up for play off game against baggies.
However, I’ve just written out all top 11 clubs fixtures with guess results and I have ended up with ;
Norwich 100
Sheffield Utd 93
Leeds 93
WBA 87
Boro 76
Derby 73
AVFC 72
Bristol City 71
Preston 69
Forest 69
Sheffield W 65
One for once I bloody hope I’m proved wrong 😩. My guesses for us are pretty ok I think with maybe only debate my game v Bristol city to get additional points....
Blackburn W
Sheffield Wed D
Rotherham W
Bristol D
Bolton W
Millwall W
Leeds L
Norwich D
That's a decent call at the time. On 5 th place
Points wise that was indication I had also forecasted but optimistically!
Now I think we could break our expectations but maybe the form will slow down I dunno !
Though I do feel at least 5th is somewhat secure
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Ok let's look forecast points total from 24 points and also final points
Going on what has occurred this season so far
and likely outcome based on stats
12+ pts
69,70,71pts based on season so far.
Villa will finish on 69pts with 12pts from last 8 because
Villa average 1.7 pts home
4 matches to play =6.8
Villa average 1.3 pts away
4 matches to play 5.2
5.2+6.8=12pts
Also-this season :Overall pts per match is 1.5 a match
Also Dean smith as manager average is 1.5
Villa finish on 70pts 13 points from 8 matches
This points forecast because minus the
Average points of home teams to play
Average points away teams to play
Villa finish with 71pts. 14 pts from 8 games because :
Recent form of the last 8 games is 1 .75 pts a match = 14 pts
So if villa match the current form with the remaining 8 matches or further improve then villa can achieve a +70points total .
However in last 8 matches have reduced goal conceded to average 1 per match if continued to be matched in remaining 8 I think would bring another 3/4 points in forecast.
for last 8 matches -There for I am optimistically forecasting at maximum 17/18pts and villa having potential to finish on 74/75pts .
(Though I do think be pushing it to get 15/16 points ! )
Personally I would confidently forecast with high probability victories in 4/8 matches
Blackburn 3
Rotherham 3
Milwall 3
Bolton 3
A very good chance of victory v Bristol City 1/3pts
The away matches of Sheff wed 1 pts
12-14pts achieved at this stage would be above expected stat expectations based on matches so far this season
So going into final 2matches being on 69 pts 70 or 71pts would give the chance for my forecast points to be met 17/18pts .
(I gave the extra 3/4 points from what is a best 14point based in stats of season due to to the goals conceded per game being reduced and the continue high goals scored per game )
Those two final matches are the variables Leeds , Norwich to expectations .
I'll forecast the final 2 matches 0-3pts
12pts to 18 pts is the likelihood in range of points villa will achieve
So that's 69 -75pts.
If going in to last two have achieved 14pts then that has met stats expectations. And the final 2 matches could provide the extra pts.
If more than 14 from 18pts have been achieved in the first 6 matches then that's a very healthy position to be in regardless how the other clubs around villa are performing.
So healthy !
That was 15 points from 15 nevermind
In first 5 of last 8
Nevermind getting 14 from 18
The club record run done major wonders and exceeded probability and expectations however as the momentum took the points per match went up as did confidence so based on current form it's obviously 3 more wins!
That said think now looking at Leeds and Norwich forecast of 0-3 pts in those two matches as too low!!
But I wouldn't be surprised if see some draws if we slowing down and changing team .
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You have to factor dropping points in along the way, so with the 8 fixtures remaining I think 14-15pts (out of a possible 24pts) would be a realistic minimal target. The real question is whether or not 71-72pts would be enough to get us in the playoffs...so you have to start asking will 2 of the following teams get the following number of points or more:
Boro: 13-14pts (9 games to play)
Preston: 14-15pts
Derby: 15-16pts (9 games to play)
Bristol: 16-17pts (10 games to play)
Wednesday: 16-17pts
Forest: 17-18pts
Hull: 20-21pts
Blose: 21-22pts
Over to you footyskillz...I look forward to seeing your analysis! Have fun
Just like I don't see Middlesboro poor form continuing rate of 1pt per match average meaning finish if 67pts
I also don't see the Preston north end continuous hot form in last 8 at 2.5 pts per game equalled for the final 8 matches. They would achieve -77pts !
Middlesbrough matches home 5 away 4.
70-72pts
70pts if they match the average season pts per game 1.57 = 12pts
And I've included boros home and away avearge after mentioned poor form points per match wanted another measurement for forecasting (this is because that 1pt a match is pretty hopeless and really ? Are they just going to collapse to that poor form for another 8 matches?!)
Boro 72pts. From expected home average and away average 14pts
Home average points 1.5 (X5)
Away average points 1.63(x4)
Preston 69pts-77pts
69pts Matching Season average 1.5 = 12pts
77pts matching current form
Preston need to maintain their great form and would be a real contender
Derby county 66pts -68pts
66pts If continue current form 10pts
68pts On Average pts per match for season =12pts
Bristol city 69-70pts
69pts On current form 13.8 pts - 14pts
70pts On season average = minimum of 15pts
Bristol city are a real contender due to 2 extra matches. Thank fully Boro and Bristol city play each other !
Sheffield Wednesday 66/67 pts - 71pts
71pts equalling current form =16pts
On season avearge=11/12pts
Wednesday need to continue to maintain their current form if so they are a real contender but can they maintain this form ??
Nottingham Forest 65/66pts
Equalling current form =12pts
On season average= 11pts
Summary -Forest would have to improve form and on points from season
Hull City 59pts-62pts
59 Current form 8pts
61/62 Season form 10/11pts
Hull have to super perform to get anywhere near
I'm not interested in Birmingham city the irrelevant!
Boro , Preston , Wednesday and Bristol City could all hit 70+pts based on this. For me I see Boro to get to the 71pts+ the other clubs need to reexamination of their fixtures for forecast
I feel Boro form could rise and Wednesday and Preston slow down .Bristol city are very interesting but then you bring in their fixtures and they are challenging .Conversely Derby fixtures less so. That said of all the clubs in contention some of these teams will pick up form and some will drop off . It's a potential indication but it's also noting fixtures of the opposition and also looking at home and away averages too for further indications
I still take Boro on the 6th place. But like Derby
And Leeds for 3rd. (Both them and Sheffield utd show to me major bottling and that's a good thing for the villa , derby are good cup team and if they get be itching like an sti for them and Leeds semi)
However I would see some sweet irony and then major ex Chelsea sky play offs final love in with Villa Derby after Derby dispose of Bielsa Leeds and karma for spy gate.
Sky would want this story the most . And football people want to see semis
WBA Villa
And Derby leeds
Then Lampard JT play off final
And Villa of course win!
I think I like that rather than the drab Boro being in play offs but they ground out another 1-0 and may just have something.
Of course a few options for play off semis !
But like those world cup prediction things having a look at route to glory.
Sheffield utd villa play off final would be too much to take ! For those sorry blades! Any lead less than 4 they wouldn't feel secure!
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What's it like having your very own thread, Skillz?
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FFS
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With 2 games to go we still have a big say on who will win the league and who gets automatically promoted now that we have to play Leeds and Norwich.
If Leeds beat Brentford this evening then with 2 to play the top 3 will be:
Norwich: 88pts (+34)
Sheff Utd: 85pts (+35)
Leeds Utd: 85pts (+26?)
Fixtures remaining:
Norwich:
Blackburn (H)
Villa (A)
Sheff Utd:
Ipswich (H)
Stoke (A)
Leeds:
Villa (H)
Ipswich (A)
Looks like the Championship could go to the last day of the season, and how Dean approaches these games with the playoffs in mind may actually influence the outcome. -
Looks like Leeds have fucked up their chance of automatic promotion if they lose to Brentford (2-0 as it stands), so we might not have such a big part to play after all!
Looks like top 2 will be between Norwich and Sheff Utd now with Leeds in 3rd.
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There has been an overly frenetic quality to Leeds under Bielsa. They have put in some storming performances, including the one at Villa Park, but I have been expecting them to blow a gasket.
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Leeds have blown it. Sheff U play Ipswich on Saturday so with their superior goal difference Leeds can’t catch them even if they win their last two.
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Footyskillz deserves his own thread. In fact I reckon he should start his own Podcast. I thought I was a football statto but Mr F. Skillz does his research. H&V is a far better place with him around.
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Not a good time to lose form. Alioski also injured for Leeds too. Guaranteed third and likely to play a resurgent Derby in the play off semi. Derby could be a problem as they are quite unpredictable and have some really good players.
Over the last 10 games, Albion have 1.7 points per game, that's not brilliant either. Squeeky bum time but I'm glad we are involved, having been where we were just after Christmas. What a run of results!! -
In the spirit of Danny Baker, and his cry of 'NOTHING CAN GO WRONG NOW', whenever Millwall take a lead...Leeds have fucked it and we will triumph.
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A playoff final against Derby looks fairly likely based on today’s results.
And that’s a great thing because as (I think) Soccer HQ pointed out, Derby just look like a team we’ve figured out and could beat 100 times in a row.