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Author Topic: Championship 2018-2019  (Read 152353 times)

Offline footyskillz

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  • Posts: 3262
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #840 on: March 22, 2019, 03:50:57 PM »
Why won't their poor form continue?

What was it about us utterly outclassing Derby and Boro, in their runs of 1 win in 8 and 9, that convinced you they had the quality, belief and legs to put another run of form together? When they've accumulated a largely unimpressive points per game rate of 1.5/6 all season?

There is a great opportunity to be 5th come 5pm a week Saturday and then to stretch our legs and make their games in hand come May, irrelevant.

Hey Ads well in direct response only basing it on a kinda regression to mean
That being those in hot form start to slow down .Those in poor form ie Boro improve .
Of course Boro could severely drop off.
And Preston could carry on a 2.5 average

My main thinking is that it's hard to maintain that level of consistentcy.
It could  be debated that to maintain poor form is easier  as when you're shit you're shit. Boro aren't exactly are lower table squad so just see them having capabilities of trying to maintain their position.

Villa had a poor run and like eammon on here mention so have other clubs .
Also there have been clubs who had hot winning streaks
Villa are in midst of one of these streaks and have the quality to sustain

What I think alot of us will agree on is that
We have the best player in league.
We have several players who are high abilitiy
We score goals
Our defence has improved
And we are hard to beat at home for sure.

Up the villa

Offline footyskillz

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Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #841 on: March 22, 2019, 04:14:14 PM »
Oh certainly every chance of the villa getting 5th position .
So Addsy I think I slightly misunderstood and now get that you're saying villa could finish 5th (and overtake boro too. Due to relative form of both teams)
My points were more focused and  was more with debating and  suggesting Boro have a high probability of staying in play off position 5th or 6th !
And think they along with Villa are the two in position.
Bristol city having to play both the villa and boro away and have games in hand have a big say.
I certainly don't care for the boro and appreciate other teams styles of play that Boro .
The current odds for championship to finish in top 6 are interesting and alot can change but at this time it's villa at 5/4 Boro are 4/9 to finish in top 6.

The odds are a reflection and indication though are relevant for this moment in season and factor in the money that fluctuate the odds.
Derby 3/1
Bristol city 10/3
Preston 7/2
Forest 14/1
Sheffield Wednesday 18/1

So again looking at odds and forecasting it suggest to discount forest and Wednesday.
One key aspect can be looking at fixtures .
Form of teams are taken into account by some
fans and supporters others not so much.

However a debate can be had is it form , fixture difficulty ? Games in hand or points already accumulated ?

Up the villa


Offline footyskillz

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  • Posts: 3262
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #842 on: March 22, 2019, 04:23:54 PM »
Momentum is always a factor which makes a lot of teams, including us, streaky and inconsistent. Obviously when the best player in the league is out and you're still repairing your defence, results aren't going to be great but even under Bruce we had good patches followed by bad ones, it's just what happens, players are human and become inhibited when things go against them.

Conversely, some teams ie Derby/Boro/Bristol have all had impressive runs of form before, now Derby may be in the transition period of stopping defeats with draws and the odd win before going on another good run while we have to wait and see if Boro have bottomed-out. Bristol are curious in that as a largely unfancied side, they had a sensational nine wins on the spin but are halfway through a run almost as poor suggesting, like Hull, they are probably finding their level. Preston had an awful first half of the season and Neil was probably close to the sack but they had horrendous injuries and since New Year their upward projectory has lasted longer than even Hull and Bristol with whom you'd bracket as mid-table fodder and little more. The fortune they've had recently in their last two wins and their upcoming fixtures suggest they will probably have a downturn now just when they need to match an in-form and seemingly (lion) rampant, Villa.

Finally, Wednesday have also been on an upturn, based initially on a solid defence but gradually adding goals now and seemingly a more complete team. However, they've had the fortune of building up confidence with these recent wins while playing a lot of the division's poorer sides.

Lastly, on the momentum thing, since collapsing against us with three goals conceded in the last ten minutes at Villa Park, Sheffield United have not conceded a goal in their nine(?) games since which is quite astonishing, especially given how ropey their goalkeeper looked with a couple of our goals.

Not sure what the point to my rambling is but I take comfort that this wacky league consistently shows that a great run can start from the pits of despair which I guess is what partially keeps us hoping and supporting through all the heartache.
Anyway, we'll finish 6th at least, that's the main thing.

Further to add on Sheff U. They actually didn't concede any goals since January apart from that 8 minutes of ecstay !

Offline IFWaters

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  • Posts: 2036
  • Location: down south
  • GM : Sep, 2012
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #843 on: March 29, 2019, 10:40:17 PM »
Well after baggies win the top 4 is seperate by 12 points from 5th and May switch around a bit, but we're now in a race for 2 places. This is going to be sweaty.

Offline Brassneck

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Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #844 on: March 30, 2019, 06:40:19 AM »
I would argue that after the last 4 games, we’ve gone from mid table no hopers, to in with a chance of 6th to now being one of a group fighting on equal terms with another 4 or 5 teams.

For me, I would have taken that all day long after the draw at Stoke. It’s nail biting for everyone from here on in and as we experienced last season, it increases in the play offs.  None of us would swap it though.

Offline Rigadon

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Offline footyskillz

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  • Posts: 3262
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #846 on: March 30, 2019, 07:25:11 PM »
After the matches today along with Villa we have Derby , Bristol City Middlesbrough, Forest , Preston, Sheffield Wednesday, Hull  still competing for 5th&6th play off spots .

The table sees the villa up a place whilst Boro have dropped to 8th . Derby enjoyed a 6-1 win and now 6th.
Bristol City are ones to watch with games in hand and the fixture on the 13th April is a major one when villa play them . All Villa matches of course are important at this stage and beating rivals would keep villa in very strong position . And now being ahead It's vital not to lose to any rival team.

Table
5 Aston Villa 60pts
6 Derby 59pts
7 Bristol City 58pts
8 Middlesbrough 58pts
9 Nottm Forest 57pts
10 Preston 57pts
11 Sheff Wed 56pts
12 Hull 54pts

Fixtures up to Easter Monday
Fixture difficulty marked in bold for clubs playing each other or one of the top 4.

April 2nd
Middlesbrough v Bristol City

April 6th Sheff Wed v Aston Villa:

Preston v Sheff Utd
Brentford v Derby
Bristol City v Wigan
Hull   v Reading
Rotherham v Nottm Forest
Swansea v Middlesbro

April 9/10 When Rotherham v Villa

(midweek round matches)
Bristol City v West Brom
Preston v Leeds
Sheff Wed v Nottm Forest

Blackburn v Derby
Bolton v Middlesbrough
Hull   v Wigan

April 13th When Aston Villa v Bristol City

West Brom v Preston
Leeds v Sheff Wed

Middlesbrough v Hull
Derby v Bolton
Nottm Forest v Blackburn

April 19 Good Friday Bolton v Aston Villa

West Brom v Hull
Norwich   v Sheff Wed
Sheff Utd v Nottm Forest

Bristol City v Reading
Birmingham v Derby
Middlesbrough v Stoke
Preston v Ipswich

April 22 Easter Mon :Aston Villa v Millwall

Hull   v Sheff Utd
Nottm Forest v Middlesbrough
Sheff Wed v Bristol City

Wigan v Preston
Derby v QPR
« Last Edit: March 30, 2019, 07:31:18 PM by footyskillz »

Offline ChicagoLion

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  • Location: Chicago
  • Literally
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #847 on: March 30, 2019, 07:35:26 PM »
It is going to be very tight we need to keep winning.

Offline footyskillz

  • Member
  • Posts: 3262
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #848 on: March 30, 2019, 07:47:00 PM »
I have now seen that Bristol city went 2-1 behind after Hogan scored ! And that it was Weimann who scored all 3 for Bristol city!
Amazing result for them considering the poor form and Sheffield utd decent form
I was weary of them looking at things and it's worrying is they have matches in hand however it's positive that villa have to play them and need to keep winning as you say Chicago because the match on Tuesday and then a home match to Wigan could give Bristol the play off space back.
The irony that Bruce will be opposing the villa to maintain a play off position next week is not lost on any of us . Next week it's vital to distance ourselves from Sheffield Wednesday for starters as well as gaining points to maintain position of 5th or 6th pending Bristol city away Boro.
Regards the 13th I really feel Villa need the whole 3points both to dent Bristol push and promote own cause. 

Offline Ad@m

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  • Posts: 12563
  • GM : 23.03.2023
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #849 on: March 30, 2019, 09:01:28 PM »
I've just seen the Sheffield United v Brizzle highlights and have only one comment to make.

What on earth were Brizzle thinking when they decided that away kit was a good idea?! It's like they've given a four year old crack cocaine, a handful of highlighters, and 30 minutes with a notepad.

Offline SoccerHQ

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  • Posts: 43268
  • Location: Down, down, deeper and Down.
  • GM : 19.06.2021
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #850 on: March 30, 2019, 09:04:26 PM »
Could be a huge win for Bristol City that. They still have a tough run in though. Boro away next so at least some dropped points from a rival,

Offline IFWaters

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  • Posts: 2036
  • Location: down south
  • GM : Sep, 2012
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #851 on: March 30, 2019, 11:09:24 PM »
If we can get 76 points and with our goal difference I think we will get one of the two spots. Bristol and Derby worry me and will have 3 games in the last  10 days versus our 2, but they also play each other.

Offline KRS

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  • Posts: 7027
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #852 on: March 31, 2019, 02:07:48 AM »
We could have done without Sheff Utd fcukin up today. Obviously need to take care of our own business but we also need Boro, Bristol and Derby to drop points...and I expect they will, even though we'll have to take care of Bristol ourselves. Preston, Forest and Sheff Weds will fall away with their tricky figures.


Offline KRS

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  • Posts: 7027
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #853 on: March 31, 2019, 03:14:05 AM »
If I remember correctly, Steve Bruce has a piss poor record against Dean Smith so I expect he'll set up defensively against us at Sheff Weds next week...but if we play our game then we should have far too much for them. Whatever happens, we need to be coming home with 3pts.

Other fixtures to keep an eye on next week:

Tuesday
Boro vs Bristol (draw would be best result for us)
 
Saturday
Brentford vs Derby (potential for draw or home win)
Bristol vs Wigan (expect a home win)
Preston vs Sheff Utd (hopeful of a 6pt gap between us and Preston after an away win)
Rotherham vs Forest (have Rotherham got enough fight in them after their drubbing today? I doubt it)
Swansea vs Boro (wouldn't be surprised with a home win)

« Last Edit: March 31, 2019, 03:16:57 AM by KRS »

Offline KRS

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  • Posts: 7027
Re: Championship 2018-2019
« Reply #854 on: April 09, 2019, 08:30:32 PM »
Well it looks like the chase for 4th place could be on with Baggies imploding in their last 2 games vs Millwall and Bristol.

Could the chase for 4th be on with their remaining fixtures:

Preston (H)
Hull (H)
Reading (A)
Rotherham (H)
Derby (A)

They have some tricky fixtures there particularly against Preston and Derby, but Reading and Rotherham won't be push overs given their fight to stay up.

 


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