The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Damo70]

There is a big gap between the championship and the premier league. Some clubs have bridged the gap well and had a decent season, some have struggled but survived and some have come straight back down. But we do have a manager who has dealt with trying to survive after promotion to the top flight on three different occasions (twice successfully, once not) so if anyone will know where we need to strengthen and the players needed to strengthen if and when we go up it is him. Also, we do have a nucleus of quality and certainly experience.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Who are you talking about, Damo, the 'promotion specialist'?

[SoccerHQ]

There is a big gap between the championship and the premier league. Some clubs have bridged the gap well and had a decent season, some have struggled but survived and some have come straight back down. But we do have a manager who has dealt with trying to survive after promotion to the top flight on three different occasions (twice successfully, once not) so if anyone will know where we need to strengthen and the players needed to strengthen if and when we go up it is him. Also, we do have a nucleus of quality and certainly experience.

I wouldn't say there's a huge gap to bottom half. None of the promoted three are in the bottom 3 and I think all 3 will survive.

Yes you need millions and millions to even try to break the top 6 as we tried but looks like 7th will be enough this year and it's Burnley who'll probably get that.

Two seasons ago they were playing at this level.

[themossman]

Form can change quickly. 2nd is all but gone but I’m pretty confident that the chances of us starting the playoffs in QPR/Bolton form and Fulham still playing as well as they have been are relatively small.

What we need is to be on one of those streaks and for the final to be a Bristol City/wolves game where it all clicks.

You sound like Steve Bruce, Mossman. No offence intended.

Rather than "one of those streaks" and a final "where it all clicks" and "the chances of us starting the playoffs in QPR/Bolton form and Fulham still playing as well as they have been are relatively small" leaves a lot down to luck. Far too much in fact. The sad fact is that's where we are as we've failed to really build anything solid and dependable over the last 2 years. Consistency is not our friend.

Ha, much offence taken!

I’m no fan of Bruce and I agree with your post. What I’m saying is we’ve probably got a better chance in the playoffs than it feels like after the last few games. If we’re bad run villa, we’ll lose to any of the 3 but good run villa would beat any of them. Reliant on luck? Yes. But on balance, a decent chance of getting through the playoffs? Probably yes.

[Matt Collins]

If Fulham manage to get second I’d be pretty confident we can take the others - though there will still be four teams with a chance so I reckon it’d be about 50/50

I really don’t want to have to play Fulham though. They’re in great form and we don’t fare well against that sort of pass and move team (which is a big concern if we do go up)

[tomd2103]

If Fulham manage to get second I’d be pretty confident we can take the others - though there will still be four teams with a chance so I reckon it’d be about 50/50

I really don’t want to have to play Fulham though. They’re in great form and we don’t fare well against that sort of pass and move team (which is a big concern if we do go up)

It would be the game at Craven Cottage that would be the tough one.  I think we would have a decent chance against them at home or at Wembley. 

[The Edge]

If Fulham manage to get second I’d be pretty confident we can take the others - though there will still be four teams with a chance so I reckon it’d be about 50/50

I really don’t want to have to play Fulham though. They’re in great form and we don’t fare well against that sort of pass and move team (which is a big concern if we do go up)

It would be the game at Craven Cottage that would be the tough one.  I think we would have a decent chance against them at home or at Wembley.

Looking at the remaining fixtures I think Fulham are the most likely team to finish second. I'd say our chances are slim but not impossible. Cardiff will have to take points off us and Wolves which is a pretty tall order imo. I don't buy the theory that the play offs are a "lottery" I think that the best team will triumph as in any competition. With our previous in rising to the big games this season  I'd say we're favourites to make it.

[eamonn]

Wolves and Fulham play the best football so let's just hand it to them and leave us to wrestle Cardiff at Wembley. Fair play to Nuno and, er, Slavisa but Colin and Brucie are too conditioned for that tiki taka shit.

[Drummond]

I'm starting to think that our final game at Millwall could well be a rehearsal for the play-off final

[Brassneck]

I'm starting to think that our final game at Millwall could well be a rehearsal for the play-off final

Or even the two legged tie.

For us to play Millwall in the final would mean that one of us (almost certainly them) would have to beat either Fulham or Cardiff first.

I think the 4 in the play offs will be ourselves, Fulham, Derby & Boro.

[preston28]

I'm starting to think that our final game at Millwall could well be a rehearsal for the play-off final

Or even the two legged tie.

For us to play Millwall in the final would mean that one of us (almost certainly them) would have to beat either Fulham or Cardiff first.

I think the 4 in the play offs will be ourselves, Fulham, Derby & Boro.

Yes and our final home game could be a rehearsal for the 2 legged semi against Derby if we have mathematically sealed 4th spot by then.

I see a Villa - Fulham Wembley final.

[IFWaters]

A couple of mathematical certainties now :

6 points and we are definitely in the playoffs
7 points and we are definitely 5th on 80 points

Derby can still get 21 points but have us, Wolves, Cardiff and Boro to play from their 7 remaining matches, I can see 80 points being enough to secure at least 4th.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Let's just smash Cardiff with a really heavy defeat and see how they react.

[walsall villain]

I'm starting to think that our final game at Millwall could well be a rehearsal for the play-off final

Or even the two legged tie.

For us to play Millwall in the final would mean that one of us (almost certainly them) would have to beat either Fulham or Cardiff first.

I think the 4 in the play offs will be ourselves, Fulham, Derby & Boro.

Yes and our final home game could be a rehearsal for the 2 legged semi against Derby if we have mathematically sealed 4th spot by then.

I see a Villa - Fulham Wembley final.

Could be either of these two but it won't be much of a rehearsal, I can see us resting many of our best eleven.

[Des Little]

Let's just smash Cardiff with a really heavy defeat and see how they react.

Exactly this. A good old hiding can do strange things!