The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Toronto Villa]

Fulham will finish above us now I think.

Still third or fourth isn't a huge difference in the play off context.

I’m hoping Fulham catch Cardiff. For some reason and I have no real rationale for this, but I feel we have a better shot over two legs or in a one off final if it came down to Cardiff.

[Malandro]

Fulham will finish above us now I think.

Still third or fourth isn't a huge difference in the play off context.

I’m hoping Fulham catch Cardiff. For some reason and I have no real rationale for this, but I feel we have a better shot over two legs or in a one off final if it came down to Cardiff.

Absolutely.

[sickbeggar]

Still don't think much has changed. Still going to be 7 points difference from cardiff if we beat hull going into April. Beat cardiff at home then thats 4 points, then you have to hope they drop points away at sheff U, Derby and home to Wolves. Advantage could be gone in 2 or 3 games., and cardiff still have to play 4 other teams. That all depends if we do our bit of course......

[IFWaters]

Ive looked at the last 10 years of the Championship playoffs.

2017, Huddersfield (5th) beat Sheff Weds on penalties after stumbling to 10 points from the last 8 games.
2016, Hull (4th) under a Mr S.Bruce beat Sheff Weds 1-0 after 14 points from the last 8 games.
2015, Norwich (3rd) beat Boro 2-0 after 19 points from the last 8.
2014, QPR (4th) beat Derby (3rd) after 11 from the last 8.
2013, Palace (5th) beat Watford (3rd) 1-0 after a paltry 7 points from the last 8.
2012, West Ham (3rd) beat Blackpool (5th) 2-1 after 17 from the last 8.
2011, Swansea (3rd) beat Reading 4-2 after 14 from the last 8.
2010 , Blackpool (6th) beat Cardiff (4th) after 19 from the last 8.
2009 , Burnley (5th) beat Sheff Utd (3rd) after 15 from the last 8.
2008, Hull (3rd) beat Bristol City 1-0 after 16 from the last 8.

Summary :
- Finishing 3rd gives you a better than average chance of winning (4 of 10 years).
- Form helps ; only 3 of 10 got promoted with less than 14 points from the last 8 (W4,D2, L2).

If we can get to the final I do think we have the players to take advantadge and deal with the pressure of such a massive occasion. I could also see john Terry deciding to call it a day with a 20th trophy won at Wembley.

[mike]

Still don't think much has changed. Still going to be 7 points difference from cardiff if we beat hull going into April. Beat cardiff at home then thats 4 points, then you have to hope they drop points away at sheff U, Derby and home to Wolves. Advantage could be gone in 2 or 3 games., and cardiff still have to play 4 other teams. That all depends if we do our bit of course......

That’s the problem, we needed something to change, like the others losing and us winning to close the gap.

[chrisw1]

Wolves have had two players sent off the absolute ******.  I presume this means they’re banned for the Cardiff game?

[Gareth]

Both 2nd yellows, they’ll be back for Cardiff

The Wolves mgr seems a bigger cock than Pulis, that’s a serious achievement

[sickbeggar]

Still don't think much has changed. Still going to be 7 points difference from cardiff if we beat hull going into April. Beat cardiff at home then thats 4 points, then you have to hope they drop points away at sheff U, Derby and home to Wolves. Advantage could be gone in 2 or 3 games., and cardiff still have to play 4 other teams. That all depends if we do our bit of course......

That’s the problem, we needed something to change, like the others losing and us winning to close the gap.

Wouldn't be the first time things have changed around. Only December Cardiff were losing 3 on the bounce. As i keep saying, if they get through all the hard games they have in April unscathed then you have to say well done to them but you'd hope playing 4 of the top six would result in them dropping some points at least.

[SoccerHQ]

We'll drop point aswell though.

Think we'll struggle to win at Norwich and Millwall for a start.

[l_mckay]

Think 2nd is beyond us now,need to find form ready for the play offs.

[villa `cross the mersey]

Millwall last game of the season - followed by Millwall in play off final at Wembley ......... I might just be washing my hair on those days

[mr underhill]

that's not going to happen.

[olaftab]

that's not going to happen.

Oh come on VCTM can wash his hair if he wants to.

[mr underhill]

not if he's bald

[villa `cross the mersey]

Still got plenty of hair on my head -  it's just all grey
That's  what supporting Villa for 55 years does to you - plus sex,drugs, drink and work !!!!!!!