The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Brassneck]

What was pleasing today was our passing and ball retention. Often that goes out the window in the Derby but I thought for a local grudge match we showed a lot of quality. The passing and movement have been hallmarks of our upturn in fortune since Boxing Day. I even thought Blues tried to keep the ball on the deck even if they were fairly impotent. Hourihanes goal reminded me of the sort of goal Garry Parker used tomscore, particularly his goals at Anfield, Bramall Lane and Maine Road.

I think Jack has played a massive part in that, both in being able to find space to receive a pass, and that our players have confidence to pass to him even when it's a little crowded, because they know he can wiggle out of it.

Yes. Jack is always looking and asking for the ball, regardless of how closely he is being marked. 9 times out of 10, his team mates are happy to give it to him. He's currently the best player in the division imo.

[Brassneck]

Don't forget - 80 points wold have achieived 2nd place only TWICE in the last 10 years 2008 + 2013

I think 8 more wins could be enough, given we'd get a few draws from the other 7 games. 9 more wins would almost certainly be enough.

[MoetVillan]

one game at a time.  Lets just win the next one

[Brassneck]

one game at a time.  Lets just win the next one

It's always going to be about the next game but in a thread about promotion maths, you have to speculate as to what the "maths" will be.

[SoccerHQ]

Don't forget - 80 points wold have achieived 2nd place only TWICE in the last 10 years 2008 + 2013
 

This may just be a freak year. Likes of Cardiff and Derby aren't on Brighton's level from last year.

[XXVilla]

Derby have Weds on Tuesday. We could be third again having to go to Fulham. 2nd place by no means assured.

[paul_e]

Don't forget - 80 points wold have achieived 2nd place only TWICE in the last 10 years 2008 + 2013

I think 8 more wins could be enough, given we'd get a few draws from the other 7 games. 9 more wins would almost certainly be enough.

I still think we should be aiming for 90 points.

[Brassneck]

Don't forget - 80 points wold have achieived 2nd place only TWICE in the last 10 years 2008 + 2013

I think 8 more wins could be enough, given we'd get a few draws from the other 7 games. 9 more wins would almost certainly be enough.

I still think we should be aiming for 90 points.

I agree - That's an average of slightly more than 2 points a game which isn't beyond the realms of being achievable.

Realistically though, I don't think that 90 will be needed this season as there are currently 4 teams (5 if you count Wolves) playing for automatic promotion. Other seasons when 90 points have been achieved, there have been 2 or 3 teams competing and so the points tally is slightly higher.  Ultimately, the teams below us probably need to win 1 more game than we do and with so many difficult games for everyone to play, I don't see anyone winning more than 8 or 9. Fulham probably need to win 10 or 11 from 15. If we could do the unthinkable and get all 3 points there on Saturday, we'd probably as good as finish them off. If we can prevent them from winning, we'd keep a 7 point gap between them, meaning they'd need to win at least 2 more than us out of 14 games. They have a very difficult run coming up as well.

[paul_e]

Oh I agree, I just think that 10 wins and a draw from here and we get 2nd without question because no one else will match that.  86-87 I think is in reach of Cardiff and Derby (and Fulham potentially) but I don't see them getting much more than that.  If we aim for 90 we'd probably go into the last 2-3 games needing a couple of points to secure the spot, which is where I want us to be.

[badluckeric(gates)]

Derby have Weds on Tuesday.

That must be why they are doing so well this year, they are a day ahead of everyone else.

[Smirker]

The last time we won eight league matches in a row, was 1974/75.

[MoetVillan]

The OConnells never really did anything else after this

[footyskillz]

This could be mirroring Burnley from a few years ago in championship. A run starting after boxing day December 23 matches unbeaten took them up as champions!

Promoted
Burnley won 93pts
Middlesborough  89points
3rd place was Brighton 89 points lost out by 2 goals.

Mbough played Brighton 1-1 last match decider. This could be similar villa and derby one of last matches

[paulcomben]

After 31 matches last season: Newcastle pts 66/ gd 35, Brighton 65/ 26, Huddersfield 61/ 7. Now: Wolves 71/ 33, Villa 59/ 21, Derby 58/ 24.

[SoccerHQ]

Surprised Newcastle and Brighton weren't in the 70s points range this time last year as they both were comfortably ahead of the chasing pack for pretty much all of the season.