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Author Topic: Bruce Sacked at last (now official)  (Read 1377253 times)

Offline TheTimVilla

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17580 on: August 22, 2018, 10:31:30 AM »
I know I'm fick but how are expected goals per game calculated?

Offline footyskillz

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17581 on: August 22, 2018, 10:39:00 AM »
I know I'm fick but how are expected goals per game calculated?

No no it's confusing but it's a measured metrics and that the expected results are given after a match from the stats .

This link will help it's for premier league but will be way xG and xchances

It's fascinating

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431


Offline Mister E

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17582 on: August 22, 2018, 10:42:17 AM »
Villa are averaging 1.21 Expected Goals per-game but creating just 0.40 Expected Goals from open play on average each match.

And last season, no second-tier side scored more headed goals than Villa (17) and this term five of their seven goals have arrived via crosses or set-pieces, highlighting lack of open play penetration.
Part of me says: "So what?" - as Allerdyce always pointed out, analysis shows that c.70% of all goals scored are from set pieces.
Part of me says: this is why I dislike Brucieball; because I want to see us play champagne football and win well.

However we package the message, it is clear that many on this site just don't like Brucieball and his 'Corinthian' approach to tactics (just pull your boots on and give me 100%).

Offline footyskillz

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17583 on: August 22, 2018, 11:30:07 AM »
I'm challenging that though I understand that it's Sam allardyce comment and quote not yours .

As come on now there is no way 70% of goals are set pieces .

Not even as high as that in world cup 18 despite all the extra Pks down to VAR.

70% come on you can look around or research but it's a flippant comment nu allardyce as when they think about ithat means only 30% of goals are not from a set pieces

Obviously context but the amount of direct free kicks scored as a % is very low .

Corners too aren't a general high percentage.

However being effective with set plays would of course increase chances.

Penalties stats would be interesting and I don't know if seen separate to a set play but regardless set plays are an important part of creating chances and scoring goals.

Anyway if they look on line there is nothing at all and I've never heard or seen anything previous about 70% of goals being set play.
That stat would be used way more often and I think big Sam is either talking folly or in context with some sample he uses as a reference.


A study I found online says premier league based 2015 /16 season by sports matrix

That 1 in 5 goals were scored from a set play

Ways they accounted for goals On style of play known as 'Playing Style Definitions'

Passing move – a team move involving short passes to bypass the opposition defence.

Long ball – a team move which starts from a long high ball used to bypass the opposition backline.

Individual – a move where a player dribbles the ball beating opposition defenders.

Counter– A rapid move where a team gains possession with the opposition out of position.

Set Piece – a goal originating from either a corner kick, free kick or a throw-in, but excluding penalty kicks.

Penalty kicks.

Other – A goal which follows a short attacking event, such as a second ball

The most common style of goal came from a " passing move " 40% of goals (essentially at times that would mean an assisted pass for a goal)


By the way in that study and the fateful villa season of relegation the second highest percentage of individual goals scored (24%) came from Aston Villa, with 6 of the goals.

Offline Mister E

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17584 on: August 22, 2018, 11:41:55 AM »
I'm challenging that though I understand that it's Sam allardyce comment and quote not yours ...

... By the way in that study and the fateful villa season of relegation the second highest percentage of individual goals scored (24%) came from Aston Villa, with 6 of the goals.

Your challenge is welcome, Footy; and I admire your tenacity on the topic!

Offline Mister E

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17585 on: August 22, 2018, 11:43:23 AM »
Quote from: Grauniad
Norwich City have painted the away dressing room at Carrow Road a shade of “deep pink” to give them the upper hand, the sporting director, Stuart Webber, revealed at a fans’ forum. According to psychologists, the colour can lower testosterone levels, in turn reducing aggression.

Maybe we have inadvertently painted the home dressing room at VP …

… when we play at Carrow Road we may have to issue shaded glasses to reverse the effect.

Offline footyskillz

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17586 on: August 22, 2018, 12:04:17 PM »
Quote from: Grauniad
Norwich City have painted the away dressing room at Carrow Road a shade of “deep pink” to give them the upper hand, the sporting director, Stuart Webber, revealed at a fans’ forum. According to psychologists, the colour can lower testosterone levels, in turn reducing aggression.

Maybe we have inadvertently painted the home dressing room at VP …

… when we play at Carrow Road we may have to issue shaded glasses to reverse the effect.

How aggressive does one have to be to play football !
And how about those teams that wear pink kits ! I mean do they have the opposition subconsciously going in softer or their own players being more gentle and meek in passing and tackling with all the pink on show.

I've heard it all now !!

Offline Drummond

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17587 on: August 22, 2018, 12:06:43 PM »
TO counteract it they'll probably stick a load of playboy centrefolds on the walls.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17588 on: August 22, 2018, 12:41:37 PM »
I'm challenging that though I understand that it's Sam allardyce comment and quote not yours ...

... By the way in that study and the fateful villa season of relegation the second highest percentage of individual goals scored (24%) came from Aston Villa, with 6 of the goals.

Your challenge is welcome, Footy; and I admire your tenacity on the topic!

At premier league level the 70% thing is a myth, the highest was about 45% about 10 years ago.  Last season it was about 25%.

Finding the stats for other leagues (i.e. the championship) isn't so easy but I suspect it won't deviate massively and the average for the last 10-20 years probably sits around 1 in 3.

On the expected goals thing I've always gone by a rule of 3s when it comes to chances, over a season 1 in 3 shots will hit the target and 1 in 3 of those will go in. The real percentages differ a little but it's a fairly good guide.

Offline Drummond

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17589 on: August 22, 2018, 01:14:54 PM »
So, I checked out the OPTA stats from last season Paul to reinforce your point.....

Premier League

Total        Avg per team per game

Shots
9287        12.21

On Target
3188        4.19

Goals
1018        1.33

Championship

Total        Avg Per Team per Game

Shots:
13854      12.54

On Target
4464        4.04

Goals
1419        1.28


*edited as I'd missed a couple of rows when doing calcs in excel, sorry!
« Last Edit: August 22, 2018, 01:18:53 PM by Drummond »

Offline Drummond

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17590 on: August 22, 2018, 01:20:10 PM »
More shots per team in the Championship but as you'd expect, poorer on target and conversion rates.

Offline footyskillz

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17591 on: August 22, 2018, 01:40:28 PM »
Great work Mr Drummond!

Offline footyskillz

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17592 on: August 22, 2018, 01:42:12 PM »
I'm challenging that though I understand that it's Sam allardyce comment and quote not yours ...

... By the way in that study and the fateful villa season of relegation the second highest percentage of individual goals scored (24%) came from Aston Villa, with 6 of the goals.

Your challenge is welcome, Footy; and I admire your tenacity on the topic!

At premier league level the 70% thing is a myth, the highest was about 45% about 10 years ago.  Last season it was about 25%.

Finding the stats for other leagues (i.e. the championship) isn't so easy but I suspect it won't deviate massively and the average for the last 10-20 years probably sits around 1 in 3.

On the expected goals thing I've always gone by a rule of 3s when it comes to chances, over a season 1 in 3 shots will hit the target and 1 in 3 of those will go in. The real percentages differ a little but it's a fairly good guide.

Good stuff.

And really any level 70% set plays is fallacy

Offline john e

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17593 on: August 22, 2018, 02:57:20 PM »
Bruce talking about rolling up sleeves and trying their best because that’s what he did conveniently leaves out the fact that he was an absolute class centre half
even though he played for Man Utd was still probably the most underated CH’s in the last 30years

we have no one of that quality so they need better coaching to be in the right positions doing the right things

Terry was of Bruce’s class but obviously being a hundred years old takes some toll

Bruce doing his best as a player is all well and good when you can make it look easy playing for one of the best teams in Europe at the time
 but our lot need to be a tight knit together unit which requires time on the training pitch, tactics and coaching skills and that’s just to take on the likes of Brentford tonight





Offline Chris Jameson

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #17594 on: August 22, 2018, 03:06:55 PM »
The expected goals thing is the latest unnecessary and pointless statistic. To paraphrase Top Flight Time Machine, statistics are for c**ts!

 


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