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Author Topic: Scott Hogan - retired  (Read 153098 times)

Offline frank black

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Re: Scott Hogan - on loan at Stoke
« Reply #1710 on: January 29, 2020, 01:04:48 PM »
Thoughts and prayers Scott

Offline saunders_heroes

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Re: Scott Hogan - on loan at Stoke
« Reply #1711 on: January 29, 2020, 01:05:13 PM »
Looks chuffed to bits.




He looks bloody terrified!

Online olaftab

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Re: Scott Hogan - on loan at Stoke
« Reply #1712 on: January 29, 2020, 01:07:58 PM »
How horrific for any professional footballer to wear that. My thoughts are with him and his family.

Offline Behind Bluenose Lines

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1713 on: January 29, 2020, 01:11:22 PM »
#prayforscottyhogan

Offline Des Little

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1714 on: January 29, 2020, 01:12:02 PM »
He looks like a young David Gold

Offline Diablo

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1715 on: January 29, 2020, 01:13:59 PM »
How long has he got left on his contract with us? I'm hoping it runs out in the summer and that's that.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1716 on: January 29, 2020, 01:23:48 PM »
#sadnessinhiseyes

Offline Hookeysmith

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1717 on: January 29, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »
That really is a Sunday league kit isn't it  :o

What a shame for all parties - apart from us  ;D

Online Ad@m

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1718 on: January 29, 2020, 02:09:47 PM »
I get that you've got to pay the bills, but surely he's got more pride in himself than to go there?!

Offline supertom

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1719 on: January 29, 2020, 03:00:14 PM »
Looks chuffed to bits.




He looks bloody terrified!
Looks like he's wandered into The Hills Have Eyes or something...which isn't far from the truth. Did he get driven to the ground with a resin sack over his head? Furthermore, is he allowed to keep the sack for home matches? For his sake, I hope so.

Offline frank black

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1720 on: January 29, 2020, 03:14:48 PM »
How long has he got left on his contract with us? I'm hoping it runs out in the summer and that's that.

Another year I believe.

Offline mr underhill

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1721 on: January 29, 2020, 03:23:43 PM »
Yes just another 2.3m or so in wages to go. What a clusterfuck signing Scotty was.

Offline andrew08

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1722 on: January 29, 2020, 03:25:25 PM »
He is there for one reason only... to score against Albion. Do that and hell be partly forgiven.

Offline mr underhill

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1723 on: January 29, 2020, 03:29:47 PM »
For about a week last January I think, he scored a few and almost looked like a professional footballer. Then he woke up again.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Scott Hogan - retired
« Reply #1724 on: January 29, 2020, 03:56:59 PM »
Quote
Where did it go wrong for Scott Hogan at Aston Villa?

Of course, it has to be assumed that something 'went wrong' for the striker. It's natural.

He's not playing in the Premier League for Villa, and he's just signed a loan deal to join Villa's fierce rivals, Birmingham City.

But for something to 'go wrong', it must have once 'gone right' for Hogan to end up at Villa in the first place.

So for Hogan, no doubt, and a fair few Villa fans, there are a lot of regrets and the sense of some unfinished business at the club.

To understand the striker, and offer further context to his current situation, we have to go back to the start. Back to Brentford, and even before that. So what is Hogan's story? And how did a pub team striker end up at Brentford?

A recent book 'The Expected Goals Philosophy' provides insight into Brentford's transfer pursuit of Hogan. Powered by owner Matthew Benham's 'Smartodds' company, his club utilised data analysis to find undervalued players.

Benham's systems via the use of expected goals (xG) could use a league table based on 'expected points' (a value of expected goals for and against to judge a 'just' match winner based on chance quality). This was termed a 'justice table' and used by the club to find value.

Brentford - in 2014 - were in a fairly sticky position. They had been promoted from League One to the Championship and found themselves needing strikers of a higher quality.

The Bee's analytics and scouting team were asked to find not just an additional striker - but one that was undervalued. They needed to find a team in a lower league that created a high quality of chances, but not necessarily one that was succeeding in the league table - perhaps due to poor luck.

Using their analysis on expected points tables, the team at Brentford highlighted Rochdale as a team of interest.

In 2013-2014, Rochdale under manager Keith Hill finished third in League Two - but their chances and quality of performances hinted that even promotion was a slight injustice that season - Rochdale were better than that.

Having identified their team, it wasn't long before the Bees found their player.

Scott Hogan was studying at college in Salford for a BTEC qualification when Rochdale released him. A raw, pacey and passionate forward, Hogan had impressed for the youth side at Spotland - but the club decided against offering him a professional deal due to the size of the squad.

Hogan then fell into the grind of daily life away from football. He worked as a cleaner, at a chemical factory, as an order picker and at a tyre recycling plant.

The dream dies on the 9-5. Countless life ambitions have been crushed by the cruel yet demanding grind for money. It shapes you. At the time youre not thinking about being a footballer. Youre thinking I hate my life, I dont know where Im going here', I was literally picking one tyre up up, putting it on a belt, picking another one up, putting it on a belt, and that was your day. Nothing changed. I did that for about four months." Hogan told the Irish Mirror.

While that was four months of his life, for others - it is the life. Hogan got lucky. Hard work helped, and so did his desire, but chance had a big part to play in this story. It had to.

Fighting for the dream, Hogan continued his work while playing non-league football for the likes of Halifax, Stocksbridge Park Steels, Woodley Sports, Mossley, Ashton United and Hyde. Before that, he was working while playing for Irlam - and Irlam's pub team.

Fortunately for Hogan, his work ethic was noticed by Keith Hill and he was invited back to Rochdale to train. It wasn't long before he signed for Rochdale on a permanent basis.

We could see the difference, Hill said to The Guardian when asked about Hogan's path. During the time he spent in non-league there was a massive realisation from Scott himself that he could miss out on fulfilling his potential.

"The next time we saw him he was a totally different character the same ability but his mentality was stronger and he had a more professional approach.

It all had to happen the way it happened. Fate was at play, and thanks to his hard work, Hogan had carried on to earn his chance right-back at the start. After being rejected by Rochdale, Hogan eventually signed for them.

In a twist of fate, Hogan's return came around the same time as Hill's. The gaffer had left to join Barnsley, but when that fell apart, he was brought back by Rochdale in 2013.

The Dale scored 69 goals to secure promotion to League One a year later, and Brentford found that one of their strikers stood out amongst the data - and had statistics that compared well to the average Championship forward, even when scoring in League Two.

Hogan scored 17 goals for Rochdale to end their 41-year stint in the fourth tier of English League football. His goals had put him on the radar - a contract offer from Peterborough was rejected so that Hogan could concentrate on Rochdale's promotion bid. He eventually left the club later in the year to join Brentford.

Hogan didn't get to jump straight into his new team. He succumbed to knee and ACL injuries and spent most his first two seasons at the club on the bench and the injury table.

But when Dean Smith arrived at the Bees, Hogan was firing. He scored 14 goals in 25 appearances during 2016/2017 and brought a great deal of focus and attention to the club.

That same season - not even five years removed from Hogan's pub team and shift work days - he signed for Aston Villa for a fee of around 12m. You know the rest of this story.

At Villa, Hogan scored one goal during his first season before falling to injury.

He started for Villa during his second season - and began to impress but Steve Bruce, the club's manager at the time, opted to bring in Lewis Grabban on loan in January instead of sticking with Hogan. He then scuppered a loan move for the striker when Sheffield United came in the following summer.

After that, he played barely an hour of football for the club under current Villa boss Dean Smith and was eventually sent to Sheffield United on loan at the end of the season. He bagged twice in two starts, but Chris Wilder opted against a permanent deal.

At the start of the season, Villa fans noted that their training camp included a striker who was becoming cut adrift. Hogan was brought in by Stoke City on loan, but failed to make a solid impression there too.

Potters writer Peter Smith noted that Hogan wasn't just torn between managerial changes - he didn't really fit in at all.

"His problem was that he wasn't either!" said Smith when asked about whether Hogan was more of a Nathan Jones striker or a Michael O'Neill striker.

"Jones was keen to bring in another striker in the summer but when that fell through he was pleased to get Hogan from Villa to pair him in a front two. In turn, Hogan immediately impressed with a lively debut at Charlton and two goals against Derby in his second game. But he was hooked early in the second half of his next match, a deflating defeat at Preston, and Jones all-but ripped up his blueprint."

"Hogan was barely seen of until he passionately made his case to be involved in an away match at Swansea - convincing Jones that if he was taken, he'd score. He duly did, coming off the bench to score a dramatic injury time winner."

"Jones's time was almost up and when he left, poacher Hogan did not tick the boxes O'Neill required in a solo striker-come-target man who could hold up the ball. He has only featured three times from the bench since the change in manager."

Stoke wanted to return the player to Villa - but the club refused. Instead, the Potters had to find another club themselves.

They did, and it turned out to be Birmingham City. Villa agreed to the move, and today - Hogan has been announced as a Blues forward.

Now, back in the present, the story of Scott Hogan at Villa should allow us to reset our expectations. Success isn't always up to us to define, but should rest on the context of the individual concerned.

The loan signings of Tammy Abraham and Lewis Grabban didn't help his cause at Villa - and neither did Villa's 30m splurge on Hogan, Jonathan Kodjia and Ross McCormack within six months of each other.

And what about Brentford? To succeed as a club, they must purchase undervalued players cheaply before selling them on. Hogan's metrics defined him as a Championship player. Brentford bought him, played him, put a new value to him and Villa paid it.

For Brentford to succeed with their transfer strategy, another club has to lose out. As it goes with bookies and casinos, the house always wins. Hogan's new value damned him.

Context is key when considering him. Hogan's career has a pattern. He goes backwards to go forwards and he has always done so. He didn't impress at Rochdale, so he went back to move forward. He didn't impress at Villa, so once again he must go back to go forward.

Still, for Hogan - goals at Villa Park, hearing his name sung by a crowd, Irish international caps and a decent wage. It's all a cry from those days working at the plant.

I still drive past there [the tyre plant] some days as its near the house, and I say to the missus, Im never going back there again.'

And nor does he have to.