Promotion Maths

[PeterWithesShin]

I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.

Too true.

18 to go.

[KRS]

Joint 15th and just 6pts behind the playoff places...it's all to play for and I wouldn't bet against us now we have a manager that actually seems to know what he's doing and what it takes to get us out of the Championship.

A quick glance at the table also shows that we're now above Wolves who have had a reasonable start to the season, battered us last week and despite rumours that Zenga might be on the verge of getting sacked.

[IFWaters]

31 games to go.

74 points average to get into playoffs. 87 average for automatic promotion (forget that !).

56 points to get from 31 matches is 1.8 per game, still a tough ask, equivalent to winning 3 out of every 5 games.

We are 6 points and 6 goal difference off playoff spots and 7 games til Xmas. Got to aim to be right on their tails by then.

[Ads]

4 wins and two draws would see us on 32 and likely only 3 or 4 behind. I'd take that as momentum would be with us.

[Old Kodjia]

31 games to go.

74 points average to get into playoffs. 87 average for automatic promotion (forget that !).

56 points to get from 31 matches is 1.8 per game, still a tough ask, equivalent to winning 3 out of every 5 games.

We are 6 points and 6 goal difference off playoff spots and 7 games til Xmas. Got to aim to be right on their tails by then.

When you look at it like that, it seems daunting.

I prefer to look at the table and it seems there is an awful lot of inconsistency among 3rd placed to 10th place.  I see it as very possible to catch up these 6 points in the 7 games before Xmas, taking us into the top 6.  I then see us capable of being consistent enough to take as many points from the remaining games as those around us-Whatever that final total may be.

2nd place does look like a bridge too far but if we could win our next 2 games (which include away at Brighton), that would put us 9 points behind them.  This would mean 2nd could certainly be a target at least.  Looking at how we played on Sunday though, it is difficult to see us winning at Brighton.

[IFWaters]

Now 5 points behind playoffs, level on goal difference with 6th place.

In the playoff places by Xmas still a possibility but Brighton away next is a huge test.

I'll probably be slated but statistically we have one of the top defensive units in the league, only 4 sides let in fewer goals, the best is Brighton by a mile (9 goals to our 16).

Conversely, for all the money spent, and undoubted talent, going forward we are in the bottom quarter in the league, only 5 teams have scored less.

Still, it can't be long before we give some poor buggers one hell of a beating...

[SoccerHQ]

We need another 50 or so points for play offs I reckon.

I don't think automatic promotion is realistic though....Newcastle and Brighton will probably finish close to 90 points so we'd have to go on a ridiculous winning run.

[footyskillz]

Now 5 points behind playoffs, level on goal difference with 6th place.

In the playoff places by Xmas still a possibility but Brighton away next is a huge test.

I'll probably be slated but statistically we have one of the top defensive units in the league, only 4 sides let in fewer goals, the best is Brighton by a mile (9 goals to our 16).

Conversely, for all the money spent, and undoubted talent, going forward we are in the bottom quarter in the league, only 5 teams have scored less.

Still, it can't be long before we give some poor buggers one hell of a beating...

Great update.
I think it shows of we put a run together then can really rise up the league.
7 / 9 points is attainable in next 3 matches .
With 30 matches left what's obviously important to beat the teams in play off and promotion places taking there points and gaining ground. Brighton at home a draw . Leeds away a win and Cardiff home a win.

The current play off hopefuls are
Huddersfield
Reading
Norwich
Leeds

Now what strikes me is huddersfield and Norwich are in poor form and faltering . Reading have been beaten by villa but have had food results and Leeds have this weekend for into 6th place due to momentum.  What I see apart from Norwich are teams that have been galvanised by new manager effect.  And the 6th place for sure and prob more will often be up for grabs as not many teams over 46 matches and now 30 will have the consistency.  Villa are one of them and along with Brighton Newcastle and Norwich are the best teams.
Birmingham are nust outside play offs as are a fewother teams and see that 6th and maybe other play off places changing position depending on who form team is .
Basically if we can win a few more games than draw there is a real chance of top2. Next 2 months could give indication for promotion

[footyskillz]

I also love it that unbeaten at home!
Let that continue may 7th home Brighton and claim automatic

[Villafirst]

Really annoying how RDM's tenure has hampered Steve Bruce. We'll have to win so many games now to gain an automatic spot; not impossible but I think we'll get to the play-offs now. Be nice to have a day out at Wembley!

[class-of-82]

And who wants to bet against us doing it

[Pete3206]

Not me. I believe we'll be in the play offs

[olaftab]

I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.

Too true.

18 to go.

19.

[Matt Collins]

Brighton will be really tough - in fact we've got some tough away games coming up overall - Leeds, Norwich, QPR (I never rfanxy us at QPR)

Some very winnable home games though - Cardiff Wigan burton before tougher games in  Leeds and Preston

This league is really tough. But there isn't that much quality in it really. I quite fancy us for the play offs and then if we don't go up through that to do so automatically the year after. That wouldn't be such a bad thing in my view. There aren't many players in our squad I'd really want to go into a premiership season with at the moment

Maybe Chester amavi grealish ayew kodjia plus a couple more. The midfield in particular looks very low on quality

[footyskillz]

We beat reading away under Bruce and reading are a higher outfit that these 2. so don't think qpr and Leeds will be a problem as now getting grip with Bruce strength to strength.  Brighton Norwich Newcastle are only 3 I fear !