The Takeover Thread - Recon Group - NOW WITH NEW POLL

[hilts_coolerking]

The 'good times' basically coincided with Randy spending a lot of money.  More or less as soon as that stopped the 'bad times' began.  And even when we were spending big it was so unsupervised as to cause a problem which we're still solving today.

For what it's worth, I thought the Houllier appointment was a huge risk, not just because of his health but because he'd been away from the Premier League for 6 years and hadn't been particularly successful in it for 10.  What I can't figure out is why, at a time when we were coming off the back of several sixth place finishes and with Randy's reputation still sky high, the best they could find was Houllier.  I have to confess that was the point at which I thought there might be trouble ahead.

[aj2k77]

The 'good times' basically coincided with Randy spending a lot of money.  More or less as soon as that stopped the 'bad times' began.  And even when we were spending big it was so unsupervised as to cause a problem which we're still solving today.

For what it's worth, I thought the Houllier appointment was a huge risk, not just because of his health but because he'd been away from the Premier League for 6 years and hadn't been particularly successful in it for 10.  What I can't figure out is why, at a time when we were coming off the back of several sixth place finishes and with Randy's reputation still sky high, the best they could find was Houllier.  I have to confess that was the point at which I thought there might be trouble ahead.

They probably received a letter of recommendation from Roy Evans.

[silhillvilla]

It makes sense that there is no imminent takeover or it would have been announced as soon as we were safe . Only a few weeks ago there was talk of a new contract for lambert so long term plans were afoot under the current regime.
I think Lerner is just going to say he'll crack on and hand the Baton over if a suitable offer comes along. I also think he will announce some new improved partner / sponsor news.
Lambert is the big question mark ? I think the announcement may include his dismissal and a new manager search.

[Villan For Life]

The 'good times' basically coincided with Randy spending a lot of money.  More or less as soon as that stopped the 'bad times' began.  And even when we were spending big it was so unsupervised as to cause a problem which we're still solving today.

For what it's worth, I thought the Houllier appointment was a huge risk, not just because of his health but because he'd been away from the Premier League for 6 years and hadn't been particularly successful in it for 10.  What I can't figure out is why, at a time when we were coming off the back of several sixth place finishes and with Randy's reputation still sky high, the best they could find was Houllier.  I have to confess that was the point at which I thought there might be trouble ahead.

I imagine that when your manager quits 5 days before the start of a new season your options for his replacement are limited.

[dave.woodhall]

He has made some bad mistakes though Dave.  I'm not saying he's fcuked us or anything but the appointments have been bad etc.

I'm not defending the last three years at all, but to say that he should somehow be penalised for 'failure' and has done nothing worth praising is ridiculous.

He's not being penalised for failure, it's business. In business if you fail you tend to lose money.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/27/rbs-bonuses-loss-pay-market-rate

Randy isn't an employee is he? Bankers wages are more like a players wage at a failing club.

He owns the club, has spent £200m+ on turning a side that finished 15th on 42 points and made a small operating loss into a side that finishes 15/16th on 38pts and makes massive losses. How would him making a loss on his venture be a punishment?

You've ignored the years in between, and also the fact that it's his club and whether you want him to or not, he's not going to just walk away from it.

[hilts_coolerking]

I imagine that when your manager quits 5 days before the start of a new season your options for his replacement are limited.

Agreed, but not that limited surely?

[Kevilla]

I think that there is a logic of sorts to what has happened. Lerner took us over with the intention of putting a good manager in charge of the football side of the business, doing a lot of other things right off the pitch, and providing cash. I think everyone was excited about O'Neill's appointment - he was a lot better than we could have hoped for, had a strong reputation and decent record. What none of us (or at least not anyone that I read) realised was that this was his first proper shot at the big time in a competitive league: it had not yet been discovered that his answer for any problem was Emile Heskey in the 73rd minute.

And we were competitive and quite exciting - what would we all now give for that midfield again? - I remember turning to the mate I go with during (I think) West Ham at home in 08-09, when we were just relentlessly attacking. Gabby was fantastic that day, the atmosphere was amazing, Ashley Young was unbelievably brilliant (I remember him taking a ball on the chest with his feet off the pitch, leaning in, so he could push the ball round the defender off his chest while running over the sidelines to collect it on the other side of the defender) and we were watching proper football.

I think the aim was to put a lot of money in at the start, qualify for Europe, ignore it, do better in the league, qualify for the Champions League, and then, in a relatively short time, become one of the teams that qualifies regularly, which makes the club financially sustainable at a higher level of competition. We were on the way to doing this.

The problem was that Manchester City happened and changed the financial rules completely. It was no longer enough to put 'only' a quarter of a billion into the club for this plan to work. Your best players, whichever club you are, even Man Utd, are up for grabs. We lost our midfield. I suspect O'Neill saw that we needed the sort of money the owner didn't have, and demanded it anyway. I suspect the owner saw that O'Neill's purchases had often been over-priced and of limited quality: for every Ashley Young (before the diving started) there were several Harewoods, Salifous, Heskeys, Sidwells - there is a long list, all on silly money and, while I have nothing against any of them, they are not the sort of players that you have in a squad that is going to get you into the Champions' League.

So they parted ways, and we had a couple of headless-chicken years where a non-football owner tried to find a new way to make his plan work. But then I think the business plan changed - and in a way I think he has been true to his word. He said that if he couldn't make us progress, he would leave, and I think he has been doing this for the last few years. He chose a very safe, dull manager who should, by reputation, have been able to keep us up, which almost went wrong, so he was ditched, and then he chose another (again by reputation) more exciting manager, who should have been able to keep us up and do so while trimming the wage bill and the costs and getting the debt down to a level which will make us attractive to a decent bidder. This has worked, apart from the exciting bit and we are now a Premier League club(miraculously, and only just)  in a position to sell.

I think Randy was out of his depth, and the Houllier season is the greatest evidence of that. I think he realised it after that year, and has been trying to get us in a position to sell ever since. I think he leaves some bits of the club much stronger than when he arrived, some much weaker.

The greatest problem is that, as ever, it is us who have had to suffer. At work people often comment that I am a football fan, and I reply that I'm not, I'm a Villa fan. I don't care about how England are doing, only about the Villa. If I watch other games,  I don't watch with any interest other than to see what players are out there that we might look at. Recently, though, I can say I am not a football fan, which is just as well, because what we have been served up with has been nothing like football.

My 'high' point of this season was when the TV microphone picked up Delph walking off the pitch after a game (I don't remember which one, they have all merged into a blur of awfulness) saying, 'Fucking useless'. He had been the only player on the pitch to put in a proper shift that night, and was the only person with the right to make that comment. I was pleased because it means that he cares. I think we should build our next midfield around him. I hope he stays. I hope Brad stays, and I have great hopes for Vlaar and Okore as a partnership. With Westwood and Benteke added in, we have a decent spine around which to build. I just hope that Randy sells to someone with enough money to supplement the squad around this core so that we might be able to challenge again.

And I hope that we have a manager who makes it worth visiting Villa Park again. It is my favourite place in the world, and I shouldn't dread going there. Even if we aren't winning, I'd love the atmosphere of Villa 2 - Arsenal 2, Boxing Day 2008 to be part of my life again. While all of this money nonsense goes on, all of this re-shaping of the organisation happens, it is us who suffers, and we pay thousands of pounds (in tickets, transport, programmes, memorabilia etc) for the privilege.

[Steve67]

If Randy stays then Lambert stays. Why pay compo if he wants to sell the club? Better to let Lambert stay too and see out the final year of his contract. This might also be the reason the contract talks have been shelved, because he doesn't want to fork out more compo? Who knows eh?

[aj2k77]

He has made some bad mistakes though Dave.  I'm not saying he's fcuked us or anything but the appointments have been bad etc.

I'm not defending the last three years at all, but to say that he should somehow be penalised for 'failure' and has done nothing worth praising is ridiculous.

He's not being penalised for failure, it's business. In business if you fail you tend to lose money.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/27/rbs-bonuses-loss-pay-market-rate

Randy isn't an employee is he? Bankers wages are more like a players wage at a failing club.

He owns the club, has spent £200m+ on turning a side that finished 15th on 42 points and made a small operating loss into a side that finishes 15/16th on 38pts and makes massive losses. How would him making a loss on his venture be a punishment?

You've ignored the years in between, and also the fact that it's his club and whether you want him to or not, he's not going to just walk away from it.

3 6th places is not my idea of mecca. Well, actually it is right now.

'I'm what you call the custodian. There have been plenty of custodians of Aston Villa since 1874 and if I can't make it work, I will do what the others did, move on and let someone else try.'

'People like me come and go. The fans will always own Aston Villa because they never leave.'

 I don't see the role at Villa as endowing me with anything other than a hell of a lot of responsibility. It's a very serious task and you have to be focused.'

That is what he said when he came in. He hasn't lived up to the billing and if he dragged this shit fest on for longer simply to try and claw back more money I'd have less respect for him. Not that it matters to him.

[Villan For Life]

Great post Kevilla

[silhillvilla]

The good times were joyous of course. But as soon as Barry made it clear he wanted away (Liverpool you ******!) the dream started to fade. The skies had been clear and blue but all of a sudden a cloud appeared on the horizon, with more to follow .
We have been in a storm for 3 years now and there is still no silver lining.

[dave.woodhall]

3 6th places is not my idea of mecca. Well, actually it is right now.

'I'm what you call the custodian. There have been plenty of custodians of Aston Villa since 1874 and if I can't make it work, I will do what the others did, move on and let someone else try.'

'People like me come and go. The fans will always own Aston Villa because they never leave.'

 I don't see the role at Villa as endowing me with anything other than a hell of a lot of responsibility. It's a very serious task and you have to be focused.'

That is what he said when he came in. He hasn't lived up to the billing and if he dragged this shit fest on for longer simply to try and claw back more money I'd have less respect for him. Not that it matters to him.

That's the bottom line isn't it? He didn't do exactly what you wanted, the world changed so he was suddenly a failure and everything was and always has been bad.

[KevinGage]

The 'good times' basically coincided with Randy spending a lot of money.  More or less as soon as that stopped the 'bad times' began.  And even when we were spending big it was so unsupervised as to cause a problem which we're still solving today.

For what it's worth, I thought the Houllier appointment was a huge risk, not just because of his health but because he'd been away from the Premier League for 6 years and hadn't been particularly successful in it for 10.  What I can't figure out is why, at a time when we were coming off the back of several sixth place finishes and with Randy's reputation still sky high, the best they could find was Houllier.  I have to confess that was the point at which I thought there might be trouble ahead.

Agree to an extent. 

What if GH didn't have a history of health issues?

What if he hadn't come in with an air of a consultant and -at times- treated the club with sneering contempt?

Those things actually occurred though (and the first should have been understood before multi million pound contracts were dished out) so I'm not sure how more time at the club for him would have made the situation a whole lot better.  He would still have been due to lose Ashley Young and quite likely Downing too.

His overall CV was impressive, but he was a manager who had looked to be easing his workload towards the end of his career.  In short, not someone you'd charge with a long-term project.

McLeish was just an appalling decision, but for a board short on football nous it does make a degree of sense.    Previous big club/ high pressure experience?   Well he managed Rangers and Scotland, so check!  Won a trophy recently? Check!  Ignoring the completely dismal way he set his sides up, even in Scotland.

[Steve67]

Great post kevilla. I want the same.

[Kevilla]

Great post Kevilla

Thank you - although seeing it on the board here, it is an awful lot longer than I meant it to be. Part of what I do for a living is writing, and I think I got a bit carried away.

And Silhillvilla, yes, Barry saying he wanted to go was important, but we were big enough to keep him for a year, and he played for that year. I think it was a significant moment, the tipping point, when we weren't big enough to keep him the year after, as our ambitions had changed, and the nature of the league had changed. It had always been about money since 1992, but now it was about truly stupid levels of money.