To What End?

[Clampy]

We're not in relegation battle.  However, the bottom half of the league is tight enough that we could get drawn into one, but we're not in one at the moment.

I wouldn't say we're in a relegation battle just yet either.

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I don't think we're in one either, for what it is worth.

[PeterWithesShin]

I think we're just outside the battle right now. But within a couple of games could be right in it. The next 4 will decide if we are to spend the rest of the season mid-table or will be drawn into it. WHU (h) Cardiff (a) Newcastle (a) Norwich (h).

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8 points from that lot, at the least.

[Concrete John]

I think Fat Sam will set up for a draw and doubt we have enough to stop him getting it.  I fancy us to beat Cardiff and Norwich and Newcastle could go either way.

[placeforparks]

We're not in relegation battle.  However, the bottom half of the league is tight enough that we could get drawn into one, but we're not in one at the moment.

I wouldn't say we're in a relegation battle just yet either.

i think we'll know about half 9 on tuesday night whether we are or not.

[saunders_heroes]

We're not in relegation battle.  However, the bottom half of the league is tight enough that we could get drawn into one, but we're not in one at the moment.

I wouldn't say we're in a relegation battle just yet either.

i think we'll know about half 9 on tuesday night whether we are or not.

Crikey I didn't realise we were playing Cardiff on Tuesday. It's a bloody big few days for us.

[paul_e]

To add some numbers:

Of the bomb squad we still have Bent, Given, Hutton, Delfouneso, nzogbia and have only just rid ourselves of Ireland.  that first 5 will be on a combined £200kpw+ if the accepted figures are considered reasonably accurate.

That's about £10.5m a year, for none contributing staff at a business whose last reported turnover was £80m so about 13% of our turnover.  It's not unreasonable to think that there will be a lot more money available for wages once those contracts are gone.  I know we won't have been paying those wages in full but we still need to consider them as liabilities next year and as we don't know how much is being covered it's easier to stick with what we can make a reasonable guess at.

The last financials reported were for the AM season and showed our wage bill as £70m (out of the £80m above), since then we've seen a lot of player changes with some big earners leaving and not many high earners replacing them.  Looking at the incomings and outgoings I'd guess our annual wage bill this year, when the reports come out in 2015, will be £55-60m, with 10m of that (covered above) still on players who don't play.

Considering performance, league placing and crowds I'd say there's little chance that the 12-13 figures will see a turnover that low and it will probably stand as the lowest we post as a premier league team so even with no wage changes our position will have improved, the TV money will further that until the players start grabbing a bigger share.

All the numbers (even if they are based on educated guesses) point to the situation looking a lot healthier on that front and the £20 net spend per summer is pretty well established so we can trust similar again.  We also now have a pretty full squad so unless we're going to sell a hell of lot of them we're limited to a handful of transfers anyway so the safe money would be to suggest we'll spend something around £20m on 3-4players.  Given Lambert has a good record for his bigger spending (Benteke, Kozak, Okore and Vlaar are his 4 most expensive signings) I'm going to trust him to pull out 4 signings of that standard in the summer.

[Pat McMahon]

8 points from that lot, at the least.

The trouble this season Ads is that it is almost impossible to guess how we will perform against any given opponent. Their league position seems to have no bearing on the result.

[aj2k77]

8 points from that lot, at the least.

6 pts and we would have 33 after 28 games. Virtually safe. Gotta target the two home wins there.

[not3bad]

This season I started to become really depressed that the plan included a "no glory" element which allowed the board and the owner to regard the simple survival in the Premiership as a legitimate and adequate ambition so long as the gates held up and the costs went down.

This is the key for me. It upsets me that "Premiership survival" is considered good. What's the point of turning up each year and aiming to be 10th.

So you've been told we'll be aiming for 10th next year and the year after?  Where did you get this information?

Obviously, nobody has told him that, but we all form our own opinions about what the ambitions of the club are, and those opinions tend to be shaped by what we see them doing.

It's difficult to look at the events of the last 2 or 3 years and really say we're being set up with any ambition. The board don't even talk to us about ambition any more, let alone actually do anything to suggest there is any.

After MON left the next two seasons were pretty much a write off since the club were literally all over the place.  When Mcleish was sacked, the club visibly changed its policy.  It is now trying something different.  Will it work?  I don't have a clue.  But the one thing I'm not doing is making assumptions.  I also note that most people agreed that mid table would be an acceptable target for this season.  Why then talk about finishing 10th every season?  If it looks like we're heading, or even aiming, for the same position next year then fair enough.

We're mid table, but let's not pretend we're not in a relegation battle. We're just 5 points above the drop zone so we're not comfortable. We've lost 7 home games in the league. This is not acceptable to fans so don't be surprised when they complain about it.

Where did I say I was surprised?  I picked out the comment because of an assumption I disagreed with.  You'll also note I said I wasn't making assumptions so I'm not pretending anything.

[Dribbler]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

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8 points from that lot, at the least.

6 pts and we would have 33 after 28 games. Virtually safe. Gotta target the two home wins there.

AAt the least. I think Cardiff are more than beatable and I would fancy a point at Newcastle.

[Brend'Watkins]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

If we agree that 40 points is the safety mark then we are ahead of schedule by my reckoning.  I predicted one point from our last 3 games and that a draw against Albion.  We were back on 23 points then.  If my predictions stay on course....wins against West Ham, Norwich, Fulham at home and away at Cardiff should be expected.  Then draws with Hull, Stoke, Southampton or Newcastle we see ourselves above the safety mark.  It's possible that we could lose some of those win games and still be safe.  We would need a really atrocious show of form not to get 40 points though from where we are now.

[Concrete John]

I'd love to know what people's definitions of 'being in a relegation battle' are. Is it being in the bottom 3? Is it being within 1 point of the bottom 3, or 2 points or 3 or 4 etc?

I would say with only a 5 point gap between us and the bottom 3, we are right in it, a swing over 3 or 4 games with us losing and the teams below us winning could have us easily down there. People have pointed out we're currently 'mid-table' and 10th and the unlikelyhood of all the teams below us getting results when we don't, but over 4 or 5 games, with us playing many of those teams too, i don't think it's that improbable and could easily happen. A lot of those teams below us have been picking up points, which is why it really is so tight from 10th to 20th. Scarily so in many ways.

TBH i don't really like the term 'relegation battle' being used at this juncture in the season it's a term more appropriate for the back end of the season and the last 5 games or so. But what should be clear, whatever you call it, is that we sit precariously close points wise to the relegation spots and we have no room for complacency. We might go on a run until the end of the season and be comfortably safe with a few games to go, we could quite easily go the other way too though, a few injuries to the likes of Vlaar, Gabby and Benteke and we could be in trouble.

All three of those have been injured at various points this season, yet we've still managed to at least keep our heads above water relegation wise.  Yes, losing three key players woud hurt us, but the chances of that are now better than a side below us losing three key players, yet that never comes into our thinking, does it?

To my mind, it's a very negative outlook to expect enough teams below us to go on these sort of runs and drag us into it.  Yes, it's possible, but no more than us doing something similar and pulling further clear.  Plus, we are talking about quite a few teams needing to do that, which again makes it highly unlikely if you start calculating the odds.